I don’t believe whatever drop we see here is THE BIG ONE. My thesis since June was that we’d see a sell off in September that would be saved by the Fed one last time. Then we might see all time highs again and the next sell off would be it. I have no timetable on that sell off but 6 months sounds reasonable.

As far as the consumer, they’ve already given up. Our government reports just aren’t ready to admit it just yet. GDP said there was a huge spike in RV sales that brought up GDP, meanwhile, nationwide RV dealers were seeing dramatic slowdowns. Housing has slowed, car factories are shutting down for weeks at a time because no one is buying cars. Factories around the world are slowing and seeing fewer orders, income isn’t rising as much as inflation, car loans are defaulting at record rates, they are lending renters up to 3 months of rent per year (to be paid back in monthly installments) because people can’t pay rent. The consumer is done.

The thing is, the market will go up into us being in a recession and then months after it finally crashes they’ll say it turns out when we said GDP was growing at 2% it was really contracting and we’ve been in a recession for 9 months or so and just didn’t know it. Suddenly, just like they revised away 500k jobs from 2018 jobs numbers, all those reports telling us how strong the consumer is doing right now will be revised down to show that they weren’t really as strong as we thought they were.

Walmart, Dollar General, and McDonald’s doing well is not an indication of a strong consumer. But none of that matters because the market will keep bidding everything up as long as the lie persists.

I don’t see how that will have a significant impact. I am watching the market move today and all I can see is gold moving up and stocks (relatively speaking) going nowhere there are still large swaths of money flowing into the buy side (the first hour today informs me that the buy side is still strong; you had NO reason to buy but we only just tagged support and bounced right off of it).

I think we have some near term downside which I’ll make money from (hat tip RSOTC), from what I’ve been patiently holding onto since the beginning of August.

I see at least another 12 maybe 18 months of economic irrational exuberance in the works. The US consumer is not yet ready to give up, if they were we would have our bear market by now.

That said smart money is in the off risk sectors gold silver ect. so in a year or so we will get that recession but for now I am waiting for profits and then I’m going to bounce on the next mid drop and watch as it recovers to all time highs over the next 9-12 months. Then it will fall and fall hard and I’ll be ready for that great TA from Randy to help clue me in on the next signal.

remember the day after the rate cut though, the market came tearing back. Then Trump tweeted about implementing tariffs and the sell off kicked into gear.

He’s going to say the same thing he has been saying. We’re going to do everything we can to sustain the expansion. And those words will either be considered dovish or hawkish yet again.

Yeah and while it all looks the same on the charts, the chopfest has been made up of super bad news days that send the market plummeting followed by no news or manufactured news that sends it back up. In a time when everything is contracting and shrinking and more uncertain than ever, markets still go up by default and down only when they are absolutely forced to.

Hence the chopfest

So far the bulls have been right so I don’t blame them. It is increasingly feeling like this market is floating on nothing but the idea that buy the dip is usually right. Last week I was thinking the market was too bearish to drop but since then it seems we’ve gone the other way. Everyone expects the market to push higher now.

@krink1 , it’s crazy. In the other rooms I am in there are a ton of BULLS. It’s weird. I have watched the SP futures drop 30 points and get bought right back up.