Yep yep ?

aka 150 day MA

watch the 21 week MA – look back on the BTC charts and see how strong it has acted as support and resistance in the bull and bear runs.
We are coming up a point that it will likely be tested.

In all bull markets it holds as support, If this is a false breakout we will fall through it and it will be resistance.

Well, there’s the thing. You have it exactly right as putting some but not all (or most) of your $$ into Bitcoin. I’ve also thought about tucking away a small amount of Bitcoin as both a potential asset that could rise during the next recession & bear market as well as simply part of a diversified portfolio. Haven’t done so yet (only tactical trades in & out/long & short using BTC futures, GBTC & other proxies like OSTK & RIOT).

Given the choice of the alternative, flight-to-safety assets to park money or even profit during the next bear market, I will choose the old tried & true gold & US Treasuries over the unproven & relatively new BTC although if the charts confirm, I might consider BTC as a piece of my overall asset allocation pie.

Thanks Randy. I’ll say you are quite likely correct. I’m probably one of those “brainwashed” few who think that owning at least one bitcoin in the future will be “a thing.” Actually it’s sort of “a thing” right now. Very few do. In my opinion, just like stocks, big players like to “shake out” the little guys. BTC is my hedge against major financial collapse. Although, that may never happen. The Geo Political landscape is either handing me the opportunity of a life-time or just one more disappointing investment among others. Most money I’ve made has been through real estate and investing long-term 9+ years in stocks. I’m taking the long-term approach with BTC and crypto(Blockchain Tech). One thing is for sure, we will find out in time what the best thing to do would have been. Have a great Labor Day weekend and thanks for all of your hard work and technical analysis. If the market ever does crash(which I’ve been waiting for) I hope you can help me/us find the bottom to go back “all in” stocks.

Good question but I really don’t. I will also say that I am very far from an expert on Bitcoin & other cryptos and as I said, I may very well be wrong. Plus, I don’t currently have a position (although I will likely short if/when /BRR breaks down) so one thing is for sure & that is if you are right & I am wrong, I won’t be short Bitcoin throughout the next leg up. Tactical trades only for me although at some point down the road, if my convictions on the bear market firm up, I might tuck away shorts on whatever Bitcoin or other crypto-related proxies, such as GBTC, appear most likely to implode.

You mentioned institutional ownership of Bitcoin so my take on that is when both the CBOE & CME raced to begin offering futures contracts on Bitcoin, which then opened up the ability for many institutions to be able to invest in Bitcoin due to the fact those futures contracts are regulated securities. Not only did that open the door to a new & large pool of institutional ownership (well, indirect ownership more so) but it also gave Bitcoin a big boost in credibility as a “real” investment or tradable asset.

My belief is that first, mainly with the talks & plans of those futures contracts in the works & then once they started trading, that was the catalyst for that final blow-off top back in late Dec (Bitcoin future first started trading on Dec 10, 2017). Fast-forward & early this year, the CBOE pulled the plug on /GXBT citing lack of demand although they said they would assess as to whether or not they planned to bring them back again. Not sure where they are at on that but it would indicate to me that the institutional & retail demand just wasn’t what they expected.

Not that I am aware of but maybe others can chime in.

@rsotc you are scaring me! Just kidding. Thanks for your input. We don’t have and “official” bull signal yet but I’m leaning towards that scenario. Too much fear around BTC right now. Most people are scared to death. Obviously, I could be wrong. I’d not trust anything other than actual Bitcoin purchased via CoinBase for example *(and stored on a hard wallet like nano ledger s). I’d rather be long than short or on the sidelines at the end of the day with BTC (now through the next 5-10 years) .. One odd thing on that “nature of bubbles flow chart” you used to describe BTC: after smart money comes institutional money then retail money. However, we have not seen much institutional money flow into BTC “yet”. Do you think the big players got into BTC back in 2015,16,17? For example. Goldman, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc. I’m under the impression they can’t even buy actual BTC except for OTC (although this is changing rapidly).

I agree the other major cryptos look like bear market rallies but I disagree that Bitcoin doesn’t as well. Made the case recently here: https://rightsideofthechart.com/bitcoin-return-to-normal-rally-likely-over/

..and of course, only time will tell if I am correct. BTW, one can quickly view the long-term charts of the other major alts here: They are listed on the right of the page although after clicking on each one, you’ll have to click “All” at the top of the chart each time to refresh it to show all of the trading history (long-term chart). https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin