Heinz1 – The video that I put together with several charts along with my thoughts on where interest rates might be headed ended up being too long to post on the front page. As soon as I find the time, I will post several of the charts along with a brief synopsis of my analysis on the front page for all to see. Until then, feel free to watch this video if so inclined. It covers quite a bit, both technically & fundamentally, with a run time of nearly 30-minutes. You can click the settings icon to increase the playback speed to 1.25 or 1.5x to run through it a little faster if you like.
https://youtu.be/uNhrFXwu_Tw

That’s a great question. Although the primary focus for most people is what the stock market is doing with little regard for interest rates, rates do directly & indirectly affect everyone’s finances; from their home values, their business (if owned) or their job (if an employee), obviously their retirement & other savings & possibly even their pension benefits.
As there are a myriad of factors that affect interest rates, I just put together a video covering some of the more significant drivers of rates along with my thoughts on where they are headed, both near-term & longer-term as well as some key technical levels to watch for on the 10 & 30-year US Treasury bonds. I’ll post that soon along with a written synopsis of my thought & some accompanying charts.

Randy, can you post the longer-term outlook for the TLT and IEF? From what I understand that you are saying, it depends on other market factors? Rates will rise with the equities and when the equities market corrects, there will be flight to quality, so interest rates may move down again. The long term bullish trend has been broken and now we are in a negative trend? I’m asking as this may influence mtg. loan decisions and real estate prices. Thanks for your excellent work!

Again, thanks!

Maybe but as of now, I’d like to see how the charts on both the stock market & treasuries develop. Treasury prices & yields are largely driven by future rate expectations but they are also affected, more so in the shorter-term, by a flight-to-safety bid during periods of elevated market volatility, especially sharp corrections followed by outflows once the market volatility subsides & stocks are rallying.
If my primary scenario for the stock market plays out, barring any new & unexpected changes in the outlook for interest rates, that would have the $SPX going to new highs after a little more weakness in the near-term, followed by another big leg down.
A lot of moving parts to those scenarios and right now, I’m leaning towards closing the IEF trade out if/when either T1 or T2 is hit. Should the charts convince me that both IEF and/or TLT will likely continue beyond T2, then I might add some additional price targets to TLT. With that being said, the 122 area on TLT is pretty solid resistance so I’d put very good odds on a pullback or meaningful consolidation there if & when it is hit. As such, I will almost certainly be booking profits on my TLT positions on the initial hit of T2 if it gets there & I haven’t decided to close the position out sooner.