Comments on: Gold, Silver, US Dollar & Euro Analysis 3-13-20

By: Tom123

Tom123 — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 11:43:38 +0000

@rsotc Thank you for the Video. Could you post the updated charts for /GC, /SI, /PL and /PA? Thank You

By: puiwahlui

puiwahlui — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 05:27:41 +0000

@rsotc, a little confused about how we should place a trade in GLD or SLV, with the Fed's move just now. They both popped up then retraced back down. Looked at UUP for the $'s reaction. It also popped up and then retraced back down. But wasn't it supposed to move in the opposite direction, pop down and then maybe retrace back up?

By: riceMBA2017

riceMBA2017 — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 18:59:21 +0000

If we saw further drops in the equities market and selling pressure, that would be bearish for gold over the short term, right?
Which might set it up for an explosive rally afterwards if all the fundamental market forces are going the way you say.
Just wondering what wins out — deflationary pressure from the recession or inflationary pressure from endless QE…
interesting times.
I would guess short term deflationary pressure and longer term inflationary pressure

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 14:56:29 +0000

In reply to RonkoTonko. You can see in the chart that between 2016 and 2018 this thing was going up like the ponzi scheme that it was (is?). VIX was nearly flat during that period, so an inverse of it should have been just as "flat" not climbing up luring people to get taken. What worries me --aside from the fact that such ponzi scheme was legal to the point that SVXY is still circulating and they just left the data for everyone to see how everyone got emptied on that day, is that post-harvest, even though the charts look more normal from the distance, if you look close, you see that SVXY has been slowly climbing up respect to a true VIX inverse. Are these crooks harvesting again? @rsotc, I think you mentioned you were scaling SVXY into a 401K account you operate. Do you have any reasons to believe we're not about to be taken to the cleaners with that security? Thanks

By: RonkoTonko

RonkoTonko — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 13:10:08 +0000

In reply to Dean Drummond. SVXY, VXX and other Volatility ETN/ETFs replicate the VIX futures. There is no vehicle that trades the VIX directly. At times there can be a distortion/disconnect between the VIX and the VIX futures. In Feb 2018 there was a huge short squeeze in the futures market that blew up several hedge funds (most prominently optionsellers.com). The most popular short VIX vehicle at the time was $XIV which got terminated afterwards.

By: RonkoTonko

RonkoTonko — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 13:02:33 +0000

@rsotc Don't assume that bond rates can't go into the negatives. Many traders in europe believed that too when they shorted the Bund futures around the 0% interest mark. Now look where we are now: People are paying the governments a premium to park thier cash with them. No one wants to hold cash on the balance sheet of a bank when we are in times of crisis.

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 02:05:46 +0000

@Rsotc, this is a fascinating video. We are at an inflection point. And your charts and explanations bear that out. The technicals on Gold suggest a breakdown, but the technicals on the Dollar suggest a breakdown, too. The answer to which will go what way is likely waiting in what happens at FOMC next Wednesday and what sort of fiscal response we get from Congress. If the Fed cuts rates again, as is expected, that would suggest a move down in the dollar. Additionally, there are many economists suggesting that the Treasury will have to print money and send a multi-thousand dollar check to every middle-class family in America to help them through this coronavirus crisis. If that comes to pass, that seems to suggest a move down in the dollar as well. Lastly, Chamath Palihapitiya remarked recently in an interview that he's been seeing alarming levels of leverage at hedge funds. If that's as widespread as he reports, that would explain the need to liquidate assets like gold to cover margin calls. Either way, we will have an answer on this soon. Thank you for all your hard work.

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 22:09:15 +0000

In reply to Dean Drummond. oops, sorry I clicked Rply instead of using the comment field on top. rookie here...

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 21:51:06 +0000

In reply to Jparlee. @rsotc you mentioned recently SVXY. Overall it seems to more or less go half inverse VIX. But what in the world was that Feb 5, 2018 episode about? VIX opens at 18.44 to close at 29.06 SVXY opens at 400.00 to close at 43.44 Say at noon (2/5/18) you want to short the VIX because it went up quite a bit in the last two days. Say you bought SVXY at around 375 or whatever... By 2/12/18 you would have lost almost all (SVXY now at ~50) Then you can spend the next two years waiting to at least break even only to conclude you've been taken to the cleaners! What!???

By: Jparlee

Jparlee — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 20:56:08 +0000

Any thoughts on negative correlation between tnx & gold? TNX jumped up this week as gold drops. 5yr weekly chart looks very interesting