I consider a breakout when a security (or index, sector, etc.) breaks out or below a well defined bullish or bearish technical pattern. In the case of the semis, all I see recently was a breakdown of the rising wedge pattern on the daily & 60-minute charts (with the uptrend line off the early May lows) with SOXX backtesting that wedge from below today (it was a hair above the TL early & now back below it).

I’m not saying the semis can’t or won’t go higher, only that one should not confuse one up day with a breakout or a ‘bullish technical event’ unless that up day did indeed trigger some type of bullish technical event, such as a breakout above a key resistance level, trendline, moving average, etc..

I detailed my thoughts on both the near-term & longer-term outlook for silver, gold, & the miners in the video that was published today after this post.

Initially it seemed that the silver/gold trade seemed to be a longer term trade…would like to know if you have a different opinion now that he Euro has put in the negative divergence on the daily.

Check it out!