No. At this time, I think the next leg down in the bear market is likely underway following the recent break, backtest, & subsequent rejection off the 200-day MAs with the nearby support level likely to act as minor speedbumps, especially if QQQ closes down 4%+ today.

Should QQQ reverse hard & print a stick-save into the close, I will share my thoughts on how I plan to position over the weekend. As of now, fully short & will most likely be going home at least moderately, if not heavy short but again, will see how the rest of the day unfolds & how the charts (on the indexes, key sectors, Mag 8, $VIX, P/C ratios, Treasury, invstment grade & corp bonds, etc..) look as we head into the close.

LQD & HYG are the two big junk bond ETFs (SJB is the inverse/short junk bond ETF). So far, the aren’t getting hit as bad as the drop in the stock market suggests, meaning that credit spreads are really spiking just yet although they have certainly been widening lately. If/when credit spreads start to really blow out, that is when the stock market is likely to really start getting hit hard.

Not a stupid question at all. In fact, It never fails to amaze me just how often that measured targets of bullish & bearish chart patterns align with the price targets that I’ve already identified based on the scope of the pattern/divergences, etc… and aligned to support or resistance levels.

In the case of the QQQ weekly chart, the measured target of that potential bear flag continuation pattern (the bounce over the past couple of weeks) aligns to just a hair below T2 on my weekly chart from the long-term swing/trend targets that I first started posted last year & continue to maintain.

However, T2 was already hit around the end of the correction that took us down to the 200-day MAs into the Aug 5th lows of last year. Therefore, as we’ve already had a reaction off the initial tag of that target, while it is certainly possible that QQQ could hit & bounce off that level again, the odds that we will get a minor to no reaction the next time around (i.e.- continue down to T3 before a multi-week, double-digit swing tradable bounce) are elevated (above 50%), IMO.

There is still positive divergence on the 60-minute chart of /NQ & /ES but as I often say, divergences (positive or negative) are not buy or sell signals, merely conditions that often preceded a trend change.

A buy signal comes on a breakout above a bullish chart pattern or resistance level while a case can also be made to go long on a drop to support, if positive divergence is in place AND the odds favor a reversal (vs. a break below) off that support level.

The bullish falling wedges I posted earlier today would need to make a solid breakout & ideally print a 60-minute candlestick close above the downtrend lines that form the wedges. Neither /ES nor /NQ broke above those downtrend lines, so far today.