BTW, I think that your incorporation of market fundamentals and macro picture makes your analysis more complete. The only thing lacking may be “market liquidity” analysis based on dollar value and central bank easing stance. You talk about it but not in depth. Maybe because it is so hard to track. I think you indirectly address this by analyzing dollar / euro and bond markets.
Love your explanations and rational. I am very analytical so I eat this up.

ZH, buy backs, empty shelves in the news, scared ( weak holders) sold, headline news, the need to figure out a way to not have street riots and appease constituents. Likely economic contraction being anticipated and massive stimulus from foreign central banks. But like Randy says, there is always a bull and a bear case but when in doubt- cash to slightly bullish. ????

Read somewhere ZH, it think, buybacks blackouts are ending.

The 80% odds that I put on a red close today (with additional downside this week likely) makes the assumption that the market is still in a larger downtrend: i.e.- the rally off last week’s low is/was just another bear market rally.

Only time will tell but if QQQ & the stock market is going to new highs anytime soon or even just towards the upper-end of my current bounce target zone, then tags of the conventional (70 level) on the RSI usually don’t come around the end of the rally & start of the next leg down, rather in an overall bullish trend, QQQ will usually continue well past the 70 level on the RSI, typically peaking around 86 before the current rally fizzles out & a corrective wave begins.