Comments on: ERY XLE Trade Idea

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 11 Apr 2016 18:26:10 +0000

Gaucho- That is certainly possible. I had anticipated a likely bounce in crude once my downside target was hit recently & at the time, I had expected weakness in the equity markets, which has instead, help up. I was thinking that expected (but unrealized) weakness in the broad market would translate into a continued move lower in the energy stocks, despite any reaction/bounce in crude off that target level. That wasn't the case & while one could certainly pull the plug on the ERY trade, I haven't seen enough evidence in the charts to close the trade early, at least not just let. The original official stops remain in place although those are only suggested stops so as always, do what you are most comfortable with. I will add that although ERY is playing out more slowly than I had anticipated, I still have XLE at or just below that key downtrend line resistance on the daily chart so as of now, the case for a deeper pullback in the energy stocks is still alive although a solid break and/or close above that TL on the XLE daily chart will severely dampen the near-term bearish outlook.

By: Gaucho

Gaucho — Mon, 11 Apr 2016 03:27:04 +0000

Hi Randy, ERY is moving down after an initial attempt to reach the T1 (24.90) without success. Could this down movement reach the stop (19.55)? Regads

By: schooner

schooner — Tue, 22 Mar 2016 17:30:43 +0000

I would also note that the 200 day MA is not far above current price on XLE. The 200 is currently at 65, and that MA often acts as a magnet -- I would not be that surprised if we get one more push up in the wedge. That's only about 2.5% on the XLE but obviously 3x that on ERY -- potentially more than some may want to give it. Personally, I like Shambo's strategy of placing his stop at the HOD on XLE and looking to re-enter if stopped out, but we all have our own styles.