Can you say whipsaw! I should have known … a little blip in the CPI is hardly a reason for an extended sell off into the abyss! Hope against hope for Randy, we’re back above the longterm trend line … I need to stop throwing darts at Tom Lee

Well, you’re welcome … I stayed long Monday night and paid dearly with half my small options account. My gut said there would be a bounce but decided to go with Randy’s sell signal of a one hour close below the long term trend line … so once that was triggered I flipped from calls to puts and not 2 minutes later the bounce started and has continued this morning! Par for the course. So I’m one of the losers from yesterday that contributed to your spectacular day. Congrats

My reasoning is as follows.

1. TA works: there’s a divergent low
2. Knowledge of the market. 2% drops in the SPY are fairly rare and usually have some major news behind them. (higher than expected CPI isn’t one of them)
3. This led me to believe that there would be some sustained rally towards the end of the day
4. I didn’t risk too much and I had a fairly tight stop in. 20% potential loss and a few hundred % potential gain.

Gains like this make up for a bunch of smaller losses. Definitely not recommending this style of trading. My personality/experience allow me to deal with the emotions.

But TA combined with relatively tight stops tilt the longer term odds in your favor.

https://i.imgur.com/dJm874i.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/U4PoNXy.jpeg

Thanks

Just took some profits on the most recent active trading short (fairly heavy position) that I mentioned reversing back into at the highs today during the video in order to lighten up before the close as the indexes are set to close right on or around those key uptrend lines. However, I am keeping a core swing short on the $NDX & $RUT as well as the $VIX for now, currently planning on riding those at least into Thursday with the slew of economic reports but will let you know if something changes my mind between now & then. That’s unlike as a breakdown of wedge/primary uptrend lines on SPY &QQQ appears both likely & imminent at this time but until QQQ & SPY clearly take out those TL’s and both META & AMZN start to clearly backfill their gaps we most definitely can’t rule out another leg up off these key uptrend lines.

Noted!

While I buy into & am very open to the longer-term FUNDAMENTAL bullish case for gold, I have highlighted the big negative divergences on the weekly chart (TECHNCIALS) that have the potential to send gold quite a bit lower and/or keep it from breaking out to new highs for longer.

One potential catalyst would be a big rally in $USD which some are calling for. Also, keep in mind that rising oil prices are a net headwind for the miners as just like airline stocks, fuel is their 2nd largest expense behind salaries.

Crude has been creeping up recently & is current testing the late Jan high so something to watch that could possible impact the miners.