Thank you

David

Yes. 60m chart of TLT has it at the bottom of my T2 zone (from the recent swing short trade entered around the start of the year) with positive divergences so the odds for at least an oversold, counter-trend bounce are starting to look pretty good.

A TLT long would also make a nice indirect hedge to a QQQ or IWM short right now IMO.

Because the $NDX has broken down below the range & it did so following divergent highs on nearly all time frames from the intraday charts out to the monthlies.

Great question. A solid recovery back above QQQ would mean the breakdown failed and would, in itself, be bullish. By “in itself”, that means I would look at other things to see if they confirm that bullish technical event or refute it, such as Treasury yields, crude oil, the current technical posture of other key indexes, sectors, & market-leading stocks, etc..

The more of those that confirm (i.e.- they also have regained any key recently broken support levels, MA’s etc..) then the higher the chance that a solid recovery back above 433 will be followed by more upside back up to & then quite likely, a breakout above the top of the range & new highs in the market.

Lots of variables so first things first would be a solid (not marginal) move & close back above 433 & if that happens, I will be posting frequent updates.

Masterclass. Thanks

I’ll cover the $VIX levels/targets in the next video or a chart screenshot soon but basically, I trade the VIX this way: When expecting a half-decent or better correction in the stock market AND the charts of $VIX confirms (i.e.- setting up bullish), then I will be long the VIX when I can make a good case to be short the market, aligning entries & exits with buy & sell signals (or bounces back into resistance) on the equity markets. i.e.- when a case can be made to get short to add to index shorts, the case can be made to buy the VIX.

Basically, I will look to exit a swing trade on the VIX shortly before I plan to exit the index shorts because the VIX usually peaks first, then the stock market bottoms. Once I can make a strong case to reverse back to long (on the stock market), if the VIX is still at the upper-end of it’s range, especially at resistance and/or setting up in a bearish pattern, I might short the VIX as well as being long the market.

As of now, plenty of downside left in the stock market ASSUMING my read is correct so sitting tight on my April VIX futures for now & added quite a bit to the May contracts earlier today at resistance & again when QQQ broke support as they were trading at a big discount to the spot VIX (i.e.-market was shrugging off the odds of any more downside) while the April’s were rocking because they are near expiration (so much closer to the spot VIX price)