You might be closer to the truth than you know.

Are you still in the trade Randy?

I want to go sailing. LoL

True. Those M’s could be for ‘mayday’

Funny… sure does look like smoke signals going up. I could wrong as my morse code is a little rusty but it looks like the message they are sending is: ” … – – – … ” (S.O.S.)

man, now i feel bad. somebody actually took the time to vote down my response. i guess i’ll have a drink and to go back to bed.

Hi Randy,

thank you very much for your response. You put my thoughts into words very well.

Stopped out. I need to post an update on that one as well as several others that are still listed as Active Trades but have either been stopped out or hit one or more targets. However, as I suggested that some might opt to give the trade a little more room on the stops, I will continue to post frequent updates on SPY. Officially, the stop was triggered at yesterday’s close.

I know, I’ve been periodically checking in on his projections. He could very well prove to be right & although I very much respect his analysis & experience, cycle analysis is not my forte so I stick to what I know & trust in the charts.

While I believe that a solid case can be made that the stock market is in a bear market rally & will not move back above the February all-time highs anytime soon, I do have to acknowledge the fact that the unprecedented & massive amount of intervention & capital injections from the Fed this time around could overwhelm both technicals (charts) and fundamentals (economic conditions & corp. earnings) to continue to lift the stock market higher.

However, the day that I give up on the same technical analysis that has worked for decades while resigning myself to the fact that the direction of the stock market will now be solely determined by what the Fed does or doesn’t do means that I might as well give up & just put all my money in a 3x leveraged long index ETF & sail around the world as there will never be another bear market as the Fed has finally figured out how to prevent them after more than a century of trial & error. No more recessions, no more bear markets… unless, of course, the Fed wills it..lol.

Agree – we came very close to the 200 SMA yesterday. A solid break above that and I would go long, but we kind of had triple top trying to break through it, so maybe that’s the ultimate sell signal. Re: when more and more people are confident the market will only go higher, that’s also a good sell signal IMO!

He said it would be stopped out officially but personally he would keep his position. It seems most of the tech traders on youtube are saying the same thing that it will pop the 200day SMA before heading lower. Once everyone agrees what will happen then it seems the opposite happens. More and more people are confident this will only go higher.

i kind of wish you hadn’t said anything about your respect for Peter Eliades. I have been watching his youtube videos and he has crazy high projections for the stock market.

I’m more prepared for it to go lower.