Comments on: CVNA Carvana Swing Trade Idea 9-11-25

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 17:15:57 +0000

If you liked the short yesterday you have to love it today. Could you Please comment Randy

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:44:20 +0000

What about the stops you said to suspend? Re stops?

By: Aaron

Aaron — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 16:26:39 +0000

Thanks for the CVNA update

By: Dkpdkp

Dkpdkp — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 15:50:53 +0000

Hi Randy-can you please update vix? Thx

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 14:47:38 +0000

In reply to KevinK.

2) I don’t have a position in gold or Bitcoin right now, but yes, still intermediate-term bullish on the Dollar (i.e.- favoring another leg up to my 2nd price target on UUP, although my convictions aren’t strong enough to bet it (i.e.- take a position). I’ll most likely wait to see how the market reacts to the upcoming FOMC & ECB meetings before deciding on when & how to engage the metals & crypto.

3) IWM (small caps) don’t like rising rates.. not the FF rate but 5-10 yr rates, especially if credit spreads start to widen. Again, waiting to see how the mid to long-end of the yield curve responds to next week’s rate cut.

As I highlighted in yesterday’s video, the 10 & 30-yr bonds rallied pretty good (i.e.- yeilds fell) leading right up to the first rate cut at the start of the last rate cutting cycle exactly a year from next week’s FOMC meeting & then pull a hard 180 & started rallying from there, including after the following two meeting/FF rate cuts. Let’s see if the bond vigilantes show up again or stand aside this time around.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 14:40:11 +0000

1) Depends: In a vacuum, yes, as when the CB (e.g- the Fed, BOJ, ECB, etc..) of a country lowers its primary lending rate, that typically causes their currency to drop. However, the US Dollar, nor any other currency, doesn’t trade in a vacuum. Rather, it’s value is relative to the basket of currencies it trades against.

In the case of $USD, the Euro makes up a whopping 57.6% weighting in the US Dollar index. As such, the Fed could cut 25bp, but if the ECB cuts 50 around the same time, then the Dollar would likely rise, instead of fall. Of course, a falling Dollar is net bullish for gold & Bitcoin & net bearish for them when rising.

Bottom line: A rising or falling Dollar is NET (but not guaranteed) bearish or bullish for gold & Bitcoin, so best to use the charts of the Dollar, Euro, & Yen (2nd largest component of US Dollar Index) to gauge where the Dollar is likely headed & factor that into any analysis of the PM’s & Bitcoin.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 14:21:49 +0000

Randy, a couple of questions…..

Technicals aside, if the Fed lowers rates one or more times this year, bottom line…..isn’t that bullish for gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin coming up on (historcally) it’s two most bullish months of the year…October and November.

I know you’re bearish, but how bout the technicals on

double top on IWM and possibly a PPO crossover on the daily….
And double bottom on PSQ, with a possible bullish PPO crossover on the weekly.