Randy,
You stated that at 2:21pm QQQ was still trading below it’s SMA. I am looking at “Stock Charts” and it says the 200 SMA is 489.97 on the daily time frame. QQQ passed that around 11:30 this morning and has been above that ever since. What am I missing ?

Agreed… @rsotc we love your analysis…no need to change strategies and biases coz of public demand

I think I see what you are saying & I’m assuming you’re referring to the $NDX trade? It’s really not a complicated trading plan nor is it one that requires nerves or steel or a big loss potential if it doesn’t pan out. I was & still is a simple “scale in this relatively small “shorting” zone” (targeting the next long-term targets on QQQ (T4-T7) —-OR—- start scaling out at a relatively small loss if & as QQQ starts to move much above 500.

With the comments I’ve seen today you’d think the market was up 10% today or even in the past week yet QQQ is up a whopping 1.59% since last Thursday’s close as I type (2:21pm EST) & still trading below the 200-day SMA (although testing it today for the 2nd time in the past week). Bull spirits running hot right now for sure, just like many thought armageddon was here just one month ago today.

“…it triggered last Tuesday”…lol. QQQ closed up 18% above its April 7th low Tuesday before last (if that’s what you meant) and 20% above it last Tuesday (of this week). Had I waited for that to cover my shorts & go long, which was doing back then, I would be up a whopping 2-3% on QQQ right now not to mention massive profit give-backs on my shorts. Sorry but sticking with my trading plan, which almost always involves positioning well before the mainstream buy/sell indicators trigger a signal.

Beside, the indexes are only one of many trades. Note how SPY & QQQ haven’t gone anywhere for the past week (sideways). While I’m not seeing a lot of new, attractive trading opps this week, I’ll continue to do hit & run trades on various commodities, individual stocks, bonds, etc..in my trading account while scaling in (although not any higher that today’s high on QQQ, which is the 200-day SMA) to index shorts in my long-term accounts, scaling out if/when QQQ starts to clearly move above 500.

Nobody was asking for longs a month ago today as the market was at the tail-end of the biggest drop in yrs. as I was covering shorts & going long (and adding long trade ideas). If you notice, I’ve been decreasingly closing out not all but the bulk of longs recently & adding more short trades.. all inline with my “bounce target zone” on QQQ and “re-entry zone” on VIXY plus many of the longs hitting price targets recently. There’s still a few active longs but I’m just not seeing a lot of objective long entries with attractive R/R profiles at this time but I’ll definitely pass along anything I see.

Sure. PLTR actually didn’t jump on earnings, rather, it sold off hard despite a blow-out quarter that blew away expectations. As with CVNA (see my comment reply above), PLTR is a “risk-on” stock that trades just like QQQ only on leverage (bigger rallies & drops). The stock is rallying in sympathy with the risk-on $NDX today but remains solidly below the uptrend line, which triggered the sell signal when broken following last week’s earnings. As such, I view today’s bounce as an objective add-on or new short entry for those who missed the breakdown. Here’s the chart.

No offense but “we” don’t trade collectively. Personally, I never take a position that I don’t feel comfortable taking or have an outlook on where the position is headed that is opposite the side of the trade I’m taking & I don’t think anyone else should.

I trade off primarily off the charts, although I do believe that sometime in 2025 the shady accounting employed by CVNA will come out (that’s fundamentals). Also, CVNA is a pretty straight-forward “risk-on” stock so it trades like QQQ on leverage.

Therefore, if the Q’s are at the tail-end of the bear market rally that I was expecting & positioning for about a month ago today, then if/when QQQ starts the next leg down, CVNA is likely to follow. Again, I always suggest passing on the trade ideas I share that don’t mesh with one’s outlook, risk-tolerance, trading style, etc..

trade deals take much much longer.. apx 3-6 months

Been waiting for a long lasting reversal for 2 years.
Someday it might happen.