This is such a well articulated perspective. Thank you for sharing!

As someone who doesn’t participate much, if any, in chat, but follows Randy’s posts, his perspectives on the markets, and have been a member since the beginning, I would like to chime in if it’s okay.

This market is absolutely frustrating to trade, even more so while carrying losses. The emotional baggage of holding onto losses and needing them to turnaround to prove that the these is correct can bankrupt one’s bankroll and psychological being before that day comes.

Being a a technical trader should focus on price. As the saying goes, only price pays. Enter a position, set a target(s) AND a stop, then watch it play out. Right or Wrong. Then move on to the next one.

The state of the economy and reality are not fully reflected in the stock market. More times than not, there is a disconnect and it takes an unknowable amount of time for the two to match. Who has the time to wait for that. Instead of waiting, trade. Be a robot. Be a machine. Hit buttons. That’s all there is to it.

Risk management is the top priority in any speculative endeavor, especially in trading/investing. When a stop hits or a level that proves the thesis wrong breaks, respect it and exit the position. That will save one’s monetary as well as psychological capital to “gamble” on the next trade, to “fight” another day.

As previously stated, I have been here since the start of Randy’s service. Randy is right more often than not. He is both an excellent trader and a researcher, which is a rare and deadly combo. I don’t trade all of his ideas, but I absolutely value them and his insights on the markets. I look at it this way, he provides the fish and it’s up to me to take it or release it.

I have mostly neutral trades on, selling option premium on both side of the market through iron-condors in SPY and a few of the mega-caps. I have longer term downside plays in SPY, AAPL, GE, XLF, EFA out to September and December. I’ve been in and out of long and short micro-futures trades in the index products holding those for minutes to days. Also holding some bullish treasury bond plays out to August and December. Will look to buy bigger dips in cryptos and crypto-related stocks if and when they happen, with the idea that they won’t become ultra-bullish until mid-2024 or so.

how are you positioned right now?

My concern is why our outlook is bearish when the market keeps rallying here! QQQ has been making HH and HL since December of last year.

Technically speaking when stocks or indexes are making HH and HL, its considered bullish.

We are a technical traders and I think our decision are clouded bcoz of news and social media. Everyone is super bearish and everyone think market will crash. What if the crash do occur but before that QQQ rallies another 20% in next 3 months. We can ‘t say we were correct.

Most of us here I believe are swing traders and does not want to hold the trades for months. Our goal is to see the technicals and make decision to trade in and out within 5 to 10 days depending on when our targets will hit.

No offense to you anyone but its been very frustrating since last October and I am now doubting myself!

You must be confusing time with price. I’ve never waffled once all year on how HIGH I though this bear market rally might go on price as far as a macro or bigger picture call & the market is still very much within my bounce targets. I’ve often shared over the year why I’m not a big fan of trading options since not only must you get the call WHERE the underlying is headed but also WHEN it is heading there.

Take a look at any of the long-term scenarios such as these from back in mid-Feb, with a “best case scenario” of one more thrust up in the market to put in a marginal AND divergent high, taking SPY to around 420 (it came within a couple of points of that so far & still is) & QQQ still well within my “max. bounce target zone” that’s been highlighted many times this year & still remains my max. bounce target zone.Maybe it pans out, maybe not but the stock market continues to grind around going pretty much nowhere for months & still appears headed for another leg down soon IMO but time will prove me right or wrong.