Comments on: Commodities Technical Analysis & Trade Ideas 6-13-23

By: KevinK

KevinK — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 14:39:40 +0000

In reply to jmccallum. Don't sell...we're going higher

By: Beljrc

Beljrc — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 00:12:03 +0000

Thanks for posting this video on commodities…I for one would appreciate more posts for this sector as I think there is a lot of potential profits to be had. Please continue updating commodity futures. Honestly I would appreciate commodity updates as frequently as you do index updates.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 21:47:49 +0000

In reply to KevinK.

Thx for sharing but it has been my view, both before & since the bear market started in late 2021/early 2022, that this next bear market (assuming that we’re still in one) will be much different from any bear market on the US indices in recent history, rather more similar to the Nikkei during Japan’s “Lost Decade” following their similar macro/fundamental asset bubble bursting around the start of the 90’s & the BOJ’s similar response which roughly parallels the FED’s ZIRP & QE policies in recent years. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/japan-1990s-credit-crunch-liquidity-trap.asp

We’ve only experienced cyclical bear markets with a much larger on-going secular bull market in the US for the past half-century & it is my belief that the US is most likely in the very early stages of a new secular bear market in equities along with a new secular bull market in interest rates. You can eyeball the duration of some of the bear market rallies in the Nikkei in this long-term chart, such as the 2003-2007 one, which was essentially a cyclical bull market within a larger secular bear market. https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:48:09 +0000

In reply to Pbathula. I believe that's old news from this morning, isn't it? There was some selling in pre-market with that news, but overall a bullish day for AAPL, closing higher than where it opened and less than 1% from making another new all-time-high.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:45:56 +0000

There is no selling; there is only rotation. Today they rotated out of AMD and TSM and back into NVDA. Good luck to anyone trying to short ETFs or Index products.

By: Pbathula

Pbathula — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:35:16 +0000

Apple downgraded by UBS as analysts say growth will ‘remain under pressure’

By: G

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 19:12:22 +0000

In reply to G. Typo- AAPL made new ATH yesterday.. but the point i was trying to make is the same.

By: G

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 19:05:26 +0000

In reply to KevinK. Yep, am going with a new bull has already started in Oct 22. SMH and XLK are very close to their all time highs. AAPL (the biggest stock by mcap) is trending to close at an all time high today. Randy missed the post covid bull run.. now missed this bull run too (worse..like then, has been on the wrong side of it again). The post covid bull run cost me dearly.. very dearly.. but this time at least I can say I wisened up a little :). You know what they say ," fool me once...."

By: jmccallum

jmccallum — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 18:39:13 +0000

sold the QQQs, now i just need to see if i want to sell the SPY too.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 18:33:24 +0000

The bond market certainly does seem to be trying to price in stickier inflation ahead, whether commodities are showing it or not. And some stock sectors that benefit from higher inflation (ie, XLB, XLI) are showing some strength.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 18:15:14 +0000

Just read an article that said IF this is just a bear market rally, then this is the longest bear market rally in history. It said the previous longest bear market rally occurred (Mar 31, 1938 to Nov 10, 1938)…7.2 months. The current rally started off the S&P low close (3577) on October 12 last year. If it is a “bear market rally”, then it’s a new record… 8 months long…and counting.
So, either we’re in the longest ongoing bear market rally of all time and we’re going back below 3577……or October 12 was the low for the bear market, and we’re not going back down 800 points or more from here.
Harder and harder for me to believe we’re still in a bear market

The article here…
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4609516-it-is-now-longest-bear-market-rally-in-history

By: G

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 18:05:57 +0000

Thanks Randy, everyone here agrees a pullback is coming sometime in the QQQs.. maybe even a deep one.. and your divergencies will play out. Congrats in advance! Great trading strategy.

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 17:30:42 +0000

You spent quite a bit of time on the semi’s. A pull back of 13% yet. I still can’t figure if you thought that was likely.