Rank Company      Ticker  Approx. S&P 500 Weight
——————————————————————–
 1  Nvidia       NVDA   ~7.6%
 2  Apple       AAPL   ~6.5% – 6.8%
 3  Microsoft     MSFT   ~5.3% – 5.5%
 4  Alphabet (Combined) GOOGL/C ~5.8% – 6.0%
   • GOOGL (Class A)      ~3.2%
   • GOOG (Class C)      ~2.6% – 2.8%
 5  Amazon       AMZN   ~4.1% – 4.2%
 6  Broadcom      AVGO   ~2.9% – 3.0%
 7  Meta Platforms   META   ~2.0% – 2.1%
 8  Tesla       TSLA   ~1.4% – 1.8%
——————————————————————–
COMBINED TOTAL WEIGHT:       ~35.5%
====================================================================
EOF

Yes, amazing call Randy! Can’t thank you enough!

Glad you caught it. Wouldn’t shock me if it continued to run, but harvesting profits when reactions (decent pullbacks on longs or bounces on shorts) have been a very profitable strategy this year, with a high degree of individual stock & sector rotation. Very much a stock-pickers & swing traders’ market.

One factor in booking profits vs. raising stops & letting GDX ride is that I have the US Dollar Index at support (uptrend line off the early Jan lows; EUR/USD at resistance; & the biggest gov’t intervention with JPY (yen- both from the US & Japan) in decades so harvesting those quick profits & waiting for the next objective entry just feels right, at this time. Congrats again!

BCE is solidly entrenched in a bear market without any evidence of a bottom or reversal. However, 3 potential objective long entries: 1) an equal or marginal new low (followed by a reversal back into the trading range..for the latter entry); 2) A breakout above the downtrend line; and/or 3) A solid breakout above the purple trading range/basing pattern. Targets shown at arrow breaks.Daily chart below.

Again, I can’t make a case to buy (or short) the stock here… looks like a dead-money/range-bound trade until & unless any of the aforementioned buy signals trigger (remember, a downside break of the range is bearish & NOT a buy signal, even if a divergent low, until & unless that proves to be a bear-trap/false breakdown with a solid recovery back above the 20ish support level.

SOXX did pop above the downtrend line (bullish) but has been stopped at the intersecting 50-day EMA + T1/533 resistance for the past week & continues to offer an objective short re-entry for those that gamed the bounce (covered the short and/or went long) off T2.

Another reason I’m still leaning towards another leg down to at least T3 on the daily chart is the fact that the PPO trend indicator (9-ema/signal line) flipped to bearish for the first time since early 2025. Here’s the updated daily chart.

Very well said. I completely agree.

Yes, more directly part of why I brought up that fund is the implication that even we are right in our views, if poorly managed a trader can still lose money. Worst part of trading for me is if my view is right but I failed to capitalize on it from bad risk management. Whether that’d be overreliance on margin, options, leveraged instruments, or position size issues. They made a ton of money from the AI trade initially yet walk out of it blown up. We should not let it happen to ourselves, given I see people ask about leveraged ETFs and options once in a while

The “AI Guru” running the Situational Awareness fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner, was/is just a kid (25 YO, now). While excessive risk-taking isn’t limited to Gen Z, their penchant for excessive risk-taking & even outright gambling in the stock market (and other online venues) has been very well documented. His over-leveraged fund certainly won’t be the last fund—public or private—to face this fate as excess margin and overvaluation eventually unwind.

When that broader macro unwinding fully takes hold, the liquidation will be devastating for passive and retail investors alike. However, for disciplined traders positioned correctly, it will offer some of the most lucrative short opportunities in market history. I plan to post a handful of charts soon that highlight some of the current extremes that, once the longer-term trend indicators flip from bullish to bearish, provide some insight into just how powerful the next bear market is likely to be.

In the meantime, regardless of long-term macro expectations, our focus at RSOTC remains unchanged: taking high-probability long and short setups with favorable risk/reward ratios, just as we’ve done for over a decade.

We saw in the margin liquidation of Situational Awareness, an AI tech fund, as part of a massive outflow in tech felt like a capitulation bottom. It was one of the biggest three day stretch tech outflows from hedge funds in over a decade and I managed get into a few names i held off on hoping for better prices and chart pattern.

See if I am right for another face ripping pump. Sad thing is that fund will probably be on the right side of the trade in the longer term but had poor risk management in the face of a drawdown