I’ll usually do an end-of-day market wrap only covering the broad markets & if it basically just a recap of any analysis that I posted earlier in the day, I will try to mention that so those that already caught my earlier analysis can skip it. Quite often, however, I will add some things that I might have missed in the previous updates but in this one, it was mostly just a recap of the mid-session update, at least the coverage of the equity markets.

Glad you find the analysis useful & efficient as a time-saver. I can’t argue that I was too early (but in hindsight, that could prove to not be too early in time or price, relatively speaking, i.e.- drawdown vs. gains, if things play out the way I still expect with a 25%+ leg down to start soon).

One consideration to make is that on this kickback rally, I had exited longs & started scaling in short towards the lower-end of my expected bounce target range due to my expectation of where the markets may have been in the bigger picture. My plan was to reverse from long to short by scaling out of longs & into shorts (but not taking a full/max. short position) on what might very well prove to be early in order to avoid missing a favorable entry, had the market suddenly & very sharply reversed (e.g.- a large gap down immediately followed by subsequent sharp selling before my final bounce target areas were reached.

I was a full-time, active trader during the 2007-2009 bear & of course, during the “near-bear” of 2015-2016. The takeaway from successfully navigating & actually flourishing during that market, both long during all significant counter-trend rallies & short the bulk of the major legs down, is that once it becomes clear that we have started a bear market, which was the presumption I was/am going off of on (which may or may not soon be proved incorrect) with this recent rally, then what you will start to see is that counter-trend rallies will usually fall shy of where most expect them to go to & usually end with a sudden reversal that traps in longs & denies shorts an objective entry.

Such is the nature of a bear market just as bull markets tend to not make it easy for those wanting to get into longs or out of bad short positions easy either, with the dips usually being bought up quickly. Just food for thought as if/once a bear market is clearly underway if you find that the same projections/technicals that you had been using to start going long or short start no longer work, the sooner you adapt your analysis, the better. As for now, congrats on holding out on your long/bullish bias & best of luck going forward.

What prompts this missive , is that I’ve noticed is that the point at which you cease putting on positions is almost exactly where I start to. I’ve only started to put on long Vol positions in the last few days with the expectation that we will, at least briefly, reach new highs then sell off sharply.

Your Spy target at 286 gives me almost a 5 to1, if I put my stop at 296. My plan is to keep scaling in up to 295. Anyway, I plan to keep looking at this difference in our trading plans, not so much because it’s about money, but that I love looking at differences and how they play out.

Once again, excellent job!

You can just speed it up. I recommend 1.5-1.75