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	Comments on: Closing Market Wrap (Charts) 5-6-20	</title>
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	<description>Stock Trading, Investing &#38; Market Analysis</description>
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		<title>
		By: gmatache		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17510</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gmatache]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 15:16:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17510</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17509&quot;&gt;Action_Jackson&lt;/a&gt;.

I completely agree with you about the possibility of another surge in infections, but keep in mind that &quot;sooner than later&quot; meant about 1 year in my comment.
Also, in all my posts on this forum, while trying to bring a little bit of sanity and calm, I did mention that another leg down is very likely if we have another surge in infections (somewhere between September and November), but in the current conditions I find that highly unlikely.
Also, even with 2 years of zero profits, the fair value of S&#038;P would be 2,456 (a 24% discount from 3,230), using the NPV method, but that&#039;s not what the market is pricing right now and it&#039;s not even close to revisit the March lows.
I&#039;ve said this before ... those shorting and hoping to see 2600 would better also hope for a lot more people to die (yes, I know how this sounds).
Remember ... what happened in the beginning of March was 100% the result of panic (the &quot;&quot;end of the world&quot; scenario) and that is exactly what the Fed is preventing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17509">Action_Jackson</a>.</p>
<p>I completely agree with you about the possibility of another surge in infections, but keep in mind that &#8220;sooner than later&#8221; meant about 1 year in my comment.<br />
Also, in all my posts on this forum, while trying to bring a little bit of sanity and calm, I did mention that another leg down is very likely if we have another surge in infections (somewhere between September and November), but in the current conditions I find that highly unlikely.<br />
Also, even with 2 years of zero profits, the fair value of S&amp;P would be 2,456 (a 24% discount from 3,230), using the NPV method, but that&#8217;s not what the market is pricing right now and it&#8217;s not even close to revisit the March lows.<br />
I&#8217;ve said this before &#8230; those shorting and hoping to see 2600 would better also hope for a lot more people to die (yes, I know how this sounds).<br />
Remember &#8230; what happened in the beginning of March was 100% the result of panic (the &#8220;&#8221;end of the world&#8221; scenario) and that is exactly what the Fed is preventing.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Action_Jackson		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17509</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Action_Jackson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 15:04:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17509</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17504&quot;&gt;gmatache&lt;/a&gt;.

The &quot;end sooner then later&quot; part is what I fear is the error in this logic.  The states that are reopening are not following the 3 phase reopening guidelines.  By the time new hot spots emerge it will be to late to safely put them out and the healthcare system will be overloaded.  We will have to lockdown again.  This will repeat until we have a vaccine or we have 60% immunity.  This could go on for 2-3 years.  The best case scenario for a vaccine is 1 year but it could be more like 4-5 years.  Grimm to think about it so most people would rather not.   The big money investors control the media, the government and the narrative.  There best option is to pump it up and hold it here so they can move things around then let it fall so they can buy low. Trump is already talking up the trade war again so I&#039;m guessing his buddies have already gotten safely out of the market. The fed said it would support the economy not the market.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17504">gmatache</a>.</p>
<p>The &#8220;end sooner then later&#8221; part is what I fear is the error in this logic.  The states that are reopening are not following the 3 phase reopening guidelines.  By the time new hot spots emerge it will be to late to safely put them out and the healthcare system will be overloaded.  We will have to lockdown again.  This will repeat until we have a vaccine or we have 60% immunity.  This could go on for 2-3 years.  The best case scenario for a vaccine is 1 year but it could be more like 4-5 years.  Grimm to think about it so most people would rather not.   The big money investors control the media, the government and the narrative.  There best option is to pump it up and hold it here so they can move things around then let it fall so they can buy low. Trump is already talking up the trade war again so I&#8217;m guessing his buddies have already gotten safely out of the market. The fed said it would support the economy not the market.</p>
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		<title>
		By: gmatache		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17504</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gmatache]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 13:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17504</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17503&quot;&gt;Action_Jackson&lt;/a&gt;.

Not really.
The Fed only has to prop the market during a crisis, because this crisis will end sooner than later, but I would not call it a &quot;broken market&quot;. It is a broken market only for those who want to short it. Is it artificially kept up? Kind of.
Now, about the eroding fundamentals, the problem with the humankind is that we exaggerate all the time, we exaggerate crises and we exaggerate good times - and media builds on this. How many times have you seen neutral news? 90% of the time it&#039;s either &quot;the end of the world&quot; (CNN) or &quot;the best economy in the world&quot; (Fox).
Why did I mention this? ... because a very good tool for stock valuation is to calculate the Net Present Value of a stock over 10 years (the net present values of its dividends over 10 years). For example, a stock returning $100 per year is worth $772 at a discount rate (interest rate) of 5%. But, if you consider a zero return for year 1 (meaning that we expect a company to have zero profit for an entire year), the stock&#039;s NPV would be $677. That&#039;s a 12.3% decline.
So let&#039;s apply it to S&#038;P. In February S&#038;P was 3,400. Let&#039;s say it was 5% over-valued because the exaggeration to the upside. That would give you a &quot;fair&quot; value of 3,230. Now apply that 12.3% decline. That means the current &quot;fair&quot; value would be 2,832. Hey, that&#039;s really close to where we are today, isn&#039;t it?

So, the Fed is not breaking the market. It is just preventing it to drop way below its fair value because of the temporary &quot;end of the world&quot; perception, but this will have a very small impact on the future innovation and growth. Capitalism is alive and kicking.

NPV calculator here:
https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator?initial_investment=0.00&#038;discount_rate=5.000&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=0&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17503">Action_Jackson</a>.</p>
<p>Not really.<br />
The Fed only has to prop the market during a crisis, because this crisis will end sooner than later, but I would not call it a &#8220;broken market&#8221;. It is a broken market only for those who want to short it. Is it artificially kept up? Kind of.<br />
Now, about the eroding fundamentals, the problem with the humankind is that we exaggerate all the time, we exaggerate crises and we exaggerate good times &#8211; and media builds on this. How many times have you seen neutral news? 90% of the time it&#8217;s either &#8220;the end of the world&#8221; (CNN) or &#8220;the best economy in the world&#8221; (Fox).<br />
Why did I mention this? &#8230; because a very good tool for stock valuation is to calculate the Net Present Value of a stock over 10 years (the net present values of its dividends over 10 years). For example, a stock returning $100 per year is worth $772 at a discount rate (interest rate) of 5%. But, if you consider a zero return for year 1 (meaning that we expect a company to have zero profit for an entire year), the stock&#8217;s NPV would be $677. That&#8217;s a 12.3% decline.<br />
So let&#8217;s apply it to S&amp;P. In February S&amp;P was 3,400. Let&#8217;s say it was 5% over-valued because the exaggeration to the upside. That would give you a &#8220;fair&#8221; value of 3,230. Now apply that 12.3% decline. That means the current &#8220;fair&#8221; value would be 2,832. Hey, that&#8217;s really close to where we are today, isn&#8217;t it?</p>
<p>So, the Fed is not breaking the market. It is just preventing it to drop way below its fair value because of the temporary &#8220;end of the world&#8221; perception, but this will have a very small impact on the future innovation and growth. Capitalism is alive and kicking.</p>
<p>NPV calculator here:<br />
<a href="https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator?initial_investment=0.00&#038;discount_rate=5.000&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=0&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator?initial_investment=0.00&#038;discount_rate=5.000&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=0&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100&#038;cash_flows%5B%5D=100</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Action_Jackson		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17503</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Action_Jackson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 12:42:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17503</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17502&quot;&gt;gmatache&lt;/a&gt;.

So what you&#039;re saying is the FED is prepared to break the markets?  They will have to prop it up forever despite eroding fundamentals?  What incentive would companies have to innovate, be profitable and grow?  So capitalism is over?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17502">gmatache</a>.</p>
<p>So what you&#8217;re saying is the FED is prepared to break the markets?  They will have to prop it up forever despite eroding fundamentals?  What incentive would companies have to innovate, be profitable and grow?  So capitalism is over?</p>
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		<title>
		By: gmatache		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17502</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gmatache]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 12:03:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17502</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The main problem is that many haven&#039;t taken the Fed seriously when they said that they would do WHATEVER IT TAKES to prop the market. Unfortunately, that&#039;s absolutely fair game, they could not have been more transparent. The trouble is that some just brushed off the strongest market player in the world!
The market will not go down!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The main problem is that many haven&#8217;t taken the Fed seriously when they said that they would do WHATEVER IT TAKES to prop the market. Unfortunately, that&#8217;s absolutely fair game, they could not have been more transparent. The trouble is that some just brushed off the strongest market player in the world!<br />
The market will not go down!</p>
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		<title>
		By: wilhud		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17501</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wilhud]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 11:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17501</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17499&quot;&gt;bransth&lt;/a&gt;.

Depressing piss take really. £100m? They are printing $3T per quarter that&#039;s pocket change....]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17499">bransth</a>.</p>
<p>Depressing piss take really. £100m? They are printing $3T per quarter that&#8217;s pocket change&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>
		By: wilhud		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17500</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wilhud]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 11:12:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17500</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17489&quot;&gt;Ahmar1977&lt;/a&gt;.

Shame.... &quot;Tesla Shanghai factory temporarily halts production. Multiple tesla workers disclosed that at least, a car part supply issue in the overseas market is one of the reasons. (36Kr) https://bit.ly/3dnsjlZ&quot;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17489">Ahmar1977</a>.</p>
<p>Shame&#8230;. &#8220;Tesla Shanghai factory temporarily halts production. Multiple tesla workers disclosed that at least, a car part supply issue in the overseas market is one of the reasons. (36Kr) <a href="https://bit.ly/3dnsjlZ" rel="nofollow ugc">https://bit.ly/3dnsjlZ</a>&#8220;</p>
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		<title>
		By: bransth		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17499</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bransth]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 11:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17499</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17498&quot;&gt;wilhud&lt;/a&gt;.

Crazy how much manipulation there is in the market. It takes a relatively small amount of money to do so.  You could control /ES with less than $100 million overnight.

https://www.zimbio.com/Jim+Cramer/articles/72/Jim+Cramer+Admits+Market+Manipulation+Calls]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17498">wilhud</a>.</p>
<p>Crazy how much manipulation there is in the market. It takes a relatively small amount of money to do so.  You could control /ES with less than $100 million overnight.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zimbio.com/Jim+Cramer/articles/72/Jim+Cramer+Admits+Market+Manipulation+Calls" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.zimbio.com/Jim+Cramer/articles/72/Jim+Cramer+Admits+Market+Manipulation+Calls</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: wilhud		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17498</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wilhud]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2020 07:04:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17498</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[First bearish engulfing on SPY daily for quite some time. They are ramping futures 1% overnight again as they have for several weeks now. But last hour volume the past few days has been big distribution from institutional investors &lt;abbr class=&#039;c2c-text-hover&#039; title=&#039;In My Opinion&#039;&gt;IMO&lt;/abbr&gt;.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First bearish engulfing on SPY daily for quite some time. They are ramping futures 1% overnight again as they have for several weeks now. But last hour volume the past few days has been big distribution from institutional investors <abbr class='c2c-text-hover' title='In My Opinion'>IMO</abbr>.</p>
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		<title>
		By: joejoeheavy		</title>
		<link>https://rightsideofthechart.com/closing-market-wrap-charts-5-6-20/#comment-17493</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[joejoeheavy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2020 22:45:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=201060#comment-17493</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thanks Randy for the wrap-up, but also for your earlier post on the TVIX trade. Took a position at the level you suggested. So far so good at today&#039;s close. This could be a chunky winner in the short term, or more as you laid out. Right on brother!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Randy for the wrap-up, but also for your earlier post on the TVIX trade. Took a position at the level you suggested. So far so good at today&#8217;s close. This could be a chunky winner in the short term, or more as you laid out. Right on brother!</p>
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