I think op was referring to the 1 HR chart. Every time a slight bullish divergence, we go much higher. Every time we have bearish divergence it’s more often that its weak or short lived.

BTW, can you please give your thoughts on ETH/USDT? tradingview has that pair.

Not an accurate statement. The broad market (S&P 500) is still 10% below the previous bull market top from the Feb highs. Dow -14%, Mid-Caps -16%, & Small-caps -18% off their previous bull market high from mid-2018.
Only time will tell is the rally off the March lows was simply a bear market rally or the start of a new bull market (or the continuation of the bull market that started in March 2009).
As of now, all diversified indexes, small, mid, & large-cap, are still well off their highs so no way to say with any degree of certainty that this isn’t a bear market rally.

A few things to keep in mind:

1) Stocks tend to fall much faster than they rise. From the Feb 19th top in the broad market (S&P 500 to the March 23rd low, the market plunged over 35% in just over 1 month, wiping out 3 1/2 years of gains.
2) It’s not as if negative divergences don’t pan out for corrections or bear markets as the broad market had negative divergences on the daily & weekly charts leading up to those Feb highs & that 36% drop was the biggest over a decade.
3) The Fed went full-out nuclear on their response to that drop in the stock market, which I don’t believe that a single person in the world could even attempt to make any type of argument, whatsoever, that the scope of the rally off the March lows wasn’t in very large part aided by that massive stimulus & psychological backstopping of the stock & credit markets.

With that being said, the primary trend since the March lows has been bullish & as such, positive divergences tend to play out for larger rallies than negative divergences playout for corrections. But just as the seeming minor divergences on the 60-minute & daily charts that marked the top back in Feb ended up being the one that finally triggered the much larger drop that was being foreshadowed by the longer-building divergences on the weekly & monthly charts, sooner or later one of these seeming smaller divergences on the 60m charts will lead to a correction that then becomes larger as the divergences on the more significant daily, weekly, & monthly time frames begin to play out

Also worth noting (as I’ve highlighted in recent videos), while the broad market did have negative divergence on the daily time & weekly time frames heading into the Feb high, the Nasdaq 100 as well as the market-leading FAAMG stocks did not, although they do have negative divergences on both the daily & weekly time frames now.

I signed off after this post-closing update last night but will post the charts of /NG & /CL in a new home page post today asap.

The Fed has successfully created the first asset bubble within a recession. Everyone slow clap.

This is probably coming at the expense of the dollar. If you measure the S&P in gold we can see it is well off the highs. They can probably never raise interest rates above 1-2% again due to the sheer weight of debt issued. So instead of having a go at rebuilding when the dust settled instead we get a zombie economy with mass unemployment that no one wants to be a part of. All because Trump wants to be reelected which is looking increasingly less likely. But of course efficient markets are forward looking so this has all been priced in right?

Btw Powell came in buying individual company bonds. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/big-tobacco-big-oil-and-warren-buffett-join-the-feds-portfolio.html

I think it’s a massive bull trap. We’ll see how the market trades today. Looking forward to sell more premium if the bounce lasts through the opening bell.

Market won’t drop before the 4th. This is America guys. Market will be up till the holiday is over. Live with it and forget all this non sense.

It’s very simple: only traders that HAVE TO do anything… are shorts that have to cover at some point. A trader never “has to” sell, but all shorts “must” cover at some point. They can’t just hold the shorts forever. So the market tends to have massive short covering rallies, because the people that shorted the market into last Friday and this morning, suddenly HAVE TO cover. If you’re a long term holder you never have to sell, you can just average in as price goes down…

In other words, the market can run out of sellers, but never runs out of buyers. Because short sellers always MUST buy back at some point!

It’s because we’re in an uptrend and we’re in a bull market still. As long as that’s true, bulls have the edge.

Spot on why does his analysis assume the FED would sit on their hands. It’s unprecedented they’ve distorted price discovery. I don’t need justification why your completely inaccurate on the broad market. Keep fighting the FED. I think next 8% move is lower. I think next 10% move is lower. I think next 7% move is lower.

Agree.. if the game is rigged, it should be taken into account, with a lot of other factors. I’m just trying to convey that chart analysis alone doesn’t seeming to be cutting it.

Agree completely, except for the fact that the recession is not being postpones – we are in a recession. The consequences are just being postponed. That’ the FED’s MO. But, in the meantime, if your’re on the sidelines or short, you’re losing big time. So, like I said, when the drop comes, how much will you really gain, considering how much was lost!

I’ll take a stab at it…. It’s because the game is rigged. It’s like playing monoply with in the rules. You’re building your hotel empire and then someone walks up and flips the table over. You complain that table flipping isn’t in the rules and flipper replies, “I make the rules.”

The table flipper is the Federal Reserve. “U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers say they will do what it takes to cushion an economy crushed by the widespread lockdowns aimed at slowing the coronavirus spread.” This means the severe recession that we should be in is postponed. However, the market is bigger than the Fed and what is supposed to happen, will happen, just at a later date. The question is can you stay solvent while the market is irrational.