Well, he was very big on that whole “gravity pulling things back down to earth” thing….

There is NO historical precedence for a post pandemic pump of trillions of dollars into the world’s largest economy while throttling that economy into idle! I think we’ve been in a soft landing recession for at leadt 18 months now. Old norms don’t apply to this new and wonderful experience. This truly is Smoke and Mirrors on steroids! Had I just inversed myself over the last year I’d be ahead some $50k … Happy guessing!

I wonder if Newton was a Bull of Bear?

Exactly. That’s what I been highlighting in recent videos but here is it again (with the chart): With very few, if any, exceptions, the end of a Fed hiking cycle & start of a rate cutting cycle has always been followed by recessions/bear markets. Fortunately for flexible (long/short) traders & those that take the time to study history (as in the chart below), the masses see the headlines & immediately assume a new rate cutting cycle will equate with a bull market, instead of a bear market. Here’s the chart but maybe this time is different (LOL…JK).

The most important takeaway is the fact that it can take months (again, see the chart below) after the Fed stops hiking before the recession (and/or rate cuts) start so this is not an exact timing indicator, rather a pretty darn accurate predictor of a high probability of an impending & relatively imminent recession.

Market is drifting higher on fumes (declining volume) because the shorts have been squeezed out & are afraid to re-engage without some solid sell signals (plus, the last few weeks of Dec typically suck for shorting the indexes). QQQ short interest at a yearly low (at least, possibly multi-year low… I only pulled the 52-week history below).

Newton’s first law of motion says a body in motion will stay in motion until & unless acted upon by an equal but opposite force. When sellers are MIA, stocks will drift higher until they equal or outnumber buyers & the stock market always has a steady & guaranteed flow of buyers from 401k plans.

Still awaiting a break of this minor uptrend line (60m chart) followed by another break below the primary uptrend line for the next sell signals on QQQ. Purple line shows the measured target of the bearish rising wedge pattern although that line will need to be placed at the point in which the wedge (lower TL) breaks.

I did in the post above. Both /CL & USO highlighted as longs in last Wednesday’s video (towards the end). Those first charts are the screenshots from the video. https://rightsideofthechart.com/technical-analysis-of-stocks-bonds-commodities-forex-12-13-23/