spot on

Thank you for your reply and i have to say all of your recent , short, trade ideas , either implied or official , have been thoughtful and objective and, in view of the overhead supply involved , I would have shorted at those levels with or without your view or suggestion
To be perfectly honest , it’s been through my own mismanagement of entering too many 3x leveraged ETFs that’s been the source of my financial pain .
Education is expensive .

Not anything that would have come today or most likely even tomorrow. I’ll do an update before the market opens on Monday & try to point out any short-term levels or developments to watch for, bullish or bearish.

I appreciate the time you took to reply but (respectfully) I think you kinda missed the point. You’ve been fighting momentum when you shoulda been embracing it.. is the long and short of it. Yes, the big money was made during the first couple of weeks of the year and you could spend all afternoon throwing a bunch of numbers at me, but the bottom line is this: every perma-bear on the face of the planet has (and continues) underestimated this rally. You’re finally catching on though as you’ve just proven my point in your reply above to @evyAL1972 — “I’m going to err to the side of caution & be more selective on short entries that I have been in recent weeks until the market indicates otherwise”

Your analysis is fluid but certainly not immune to your own biases :)

btw.. I also think that ALL of your trades should be recorded on an excel spreadsheet so that we can see how they all stack up at the end of every quarter. The “Trades Archives” doesn’t really do that. Just a thought.

I do understand how you and some others might view my expectation & position for a pullback in the broad markets as something that has gone on for ages or more importantly, against a trend to the point of substantial losses.

I would suggest going back through my market analysis (videos & posts) as well as trades (keeping in mind that the vast majority of trades are shared as unofficial, as that is only manageable way to share dozens of trade ideas that stand out on a bullish or bearish sector) since the bottom in December. As I’ve highlighted in recent videos & what you seem to be missing is that the vast majority of the gains since Dec 24th were made in the rally leading up to Jan 18th with a small fraction of those gains being built up since that point. I’ll share those stats here once again.

From the market bottom on Dec 24th, QQQ rallied 15.73% to the Jan 18th high in just 17 trading sessions/25 calendar days. From that point up until the peak this Wednesday, QQQ only gained 4.21% over 21 trading session/1.1 months. That means that 79% of the total gains off the Dec 24th lows came in just over the first 3 weeks, the majority, but not all, of which I was clearly bullish & clearly long.

In fact, unless I missed any trades (I’ll have to dig through the archives), the first official short trade since the lows was the QQQ short trade which was entered on Jan 18th, the day that the initial thrust ended & QQQ has the biggest correction in both time & price since I went from bullish & long, to a short bias on the market. Right now QQQ is trading less than 4% from where it peaked that day.

Finally & if not, more importantly, don’t mistake a handful of swing trade positions as an entire portfolio being placed 100% short on the market or any stock, sector or trade, for that matter. In fact, I suspect there have been some oversized losses taken recently on some of the official trades due to oversized positions and/or not factoring in the leverage on 3x etfs. On a related note, just last night I added a second position size calculator which will provide the total $ position size and number of shares on a trade depending on what percentage of one’s portfolio they are willing to risk on the trade. I plan to add some commentary & considerations to make when determining position size on that page as soon as the programming changes to the site are finished

I truly hope that clarifies & puts things into perspective. I also want to say I agree with many of those odd adages like “the market can remain irrational… etc..” but you when you say that I & others have been on the wrong side of the market for the past several weeks, being on the wrong side over those few weeks while on the right side during the first few weeks (when a good percentage of traders/investors were most likely either short or out of the market) makes a huge difference.

Right now to me this no mans land is taking a lot of casualties.

Despite this intraday rally, as of now I do not see much, if anything, (again, as of right now) that negates those breakdowns. That could change by the close or next week. As I type, when I go to a daily time frame on those recently posted /NQ & /ES 60-min chart, /ES is currently backtesting the wedge from below & /NQ is still relatively comfortable below (not touching) it’s comparable TL off the Dec 27th reaction low. Maybe I’m the only one putting a decent weighting on those trendlines, maybe not, but as of now, that is my take on the charts.

Not to sound snide (I truly mean that) but probably means maybe. The recent uptrend has been one of the most resilient in years. While a swing tradable correction, and possibly more, will come sooner or later, I’m going to err to the side of caution & be more selective on short entries that I have been in recent weeks until the market indicates otherwise.

I thought those breakdowns looked legit shortly after they occurred yesterday but the recovery in the latter part of the trading session gave me pause, as I indicated in the market wrap video yesterday. As I often say, the markets are dynamic & so is my analysis. As of now, I want to see yesterday’s lows in both SPY & QQQ taken out, or at least close to it, before adding that TVIX setup, QQQ or any other recent or new official short trades that are highly correlated to the broad market.

Not sure but I’ll see if there is a way to pin the latest front-page analysis at the top of the trading room. However, there is a section of the most recent front page post titles with clickable links about half-way down the sidebar on the right of the trading room. Maybe I can move that up to be more visible.

BTW- Thx all for the feedback. I’m going to make a point to do more updates with chart images in lieu of some (but not all) of the videos.

You’re stuck in this “bear market narrative” “I gotta short this baby” mind set and you’re using the same techniques that worked on the way down but not so much on the way up.. by that I mean that you’ve completely ignored the obvious, which is that MOMENTUM doesn’t give a flying hoopla about divergences on a 60 minute chart and can continue to stretch longer than anyone expects. And in the meantime, you keep getting stopped out — small losses yes, but small losses do add up quickly :/

Again, this cycle is getting long in the tooth and you’ll probably make up some (if not all) of those losses on the way back down, but I ask you again: Was it really worth it?

This old adage still holds true to this day — Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent — and in the meantime, stubbornness has you and your flock trading on the wrong side of the market for the past several weeks now.

What am I missing? And how do you spot a TOP when momentum and Retail Trader Psychology continue to defy logic?