Apologies…post intended for awareness. I try to remain unbiased when trading/investing (although it can be challenging). I concur that we have been/are short-term bullish and could likely see a SPY 292.92 61.8% Fib retrace or more soon (barring a black swan, etc.). I day trade = trade moves up & down.

Just pointing out that markets (except for oil, etc.) have been technically sound…just had a lot more volatility until the past few weeks or so. Low volatility = higher prices. The recent large drops (like 2/19-3/23) have been followed by a Fib 61.8-75% retracement (3/23-current) which are then usually followed by moves down to at least test the lows (make a higher low, lower low, etc.). There have been a few previous exceptions (1987 crash, etc.) which recovered quickly, but the recent volatile drops that began in 1/2018 retraced to Fib 61.8-75% before either dropping to put in a higher low (1/29-4/2/2018…retraced to Fib 75% 2X before testing the 2/6-2/9/2018 lows) or put in a lower low (9/21-12/26/2018…retraced to Fib 61.8% before testing the 10/29/2018 low & then retraced to 61.8% again before making lower lows).

So, my bullish hat gives me an awareness that we could see SPY 293-302 in the short-term, but my bearish hat gives me an awareness that we could (at a minimum) retest the 3/23 lows in May-June.

I also concur that fiscal flows are up (currently $500B over last fiscal year & we still have 5-6 month left in this fiscal year), but the FED can’t buy everything forever…they’ve been at it since 2009.

All the best!

Cheers!

I would agree with you if we were talking about a 3% drop followed by a 2% rally, because that’s how a free market would work, but this is not a free market market anymore. As such, one should not go entirely by TA. Just like the Chinese government controls the exchange rate in China, the Fed “controls” the stock market in the US right now. For different reasons, but that is irrelevant.
In fact, if you look closely at the charts you can see how the Fed is stepping in exactly at those key moments to push the price over resistance or to flood the market with cash when bad news hit.
@surfah00

Failed trades are part of trading. Many successful trades with @rsotc since I have joined not that long ago.
Also I must say: “26 million new unemployed makes no difference? Many making more money on unemployment than on the job???? Are you really eager to go to restaurant, movies, vacations etc. after this? I am not till I hear of vaccine!

I see your point and I too use technical analysis, but I would still call Randy’s attitude extremely biased because he either chose to ignore reality or gave reality a terribly wrong interpretation.
– For the past 4 weeks I’ve been screaming “Fed” and Randy did “address it”. He mentioned several times that he’s been trading for 20 years and he knows better that the Fed cannot do anything … completely ignoring that the QE we’ve seen for 7 years, between 2008 and 2015 is almost equal to what we’ve seen in the past 2 months!
– In almost every video over the past month he talked about unemployment and how people stopped buying everything else but toilet paper and the lines at Costco. What he actually ignored – by mistake or chose to ignore – were these facts:
a) the 26 million unemployed people are those towards the lower pay scale
b) the 26 million unemployed people are NOT “de facto” unemployed. The vast majority is actually on furlough and they are making more money than they were while working – and they will for at least 2 more months! Of course they stopped buying TVs at Walmart (aslo from Randy’s videos), but that has been offset by companies buying IT equipment. Additionally, as soon as the economy reopens and assuming that a new wave of infections will not hit us right away, those people will have MORE cash available, which they will spend right away.

Yes, many businesses will close permanently (retail stores like JC Penny, Neiman Marcus, etc are in so much big trouble), but that affects a very low number of employees and that cash that they were collecting will be collected by others (which explains why Amazon is at all times high). What other income cannot be recovered? … haircuts (people will not get more of those to catch up), travel (people will not travel more to catch up) and a few other categories, so a decline in the stock market could be explained through fundamental analysis, but nothing that would say 50% decline.

So this is why I call his position biased. He grabbed onto his short position, never let it go despite all the red flags, ignored reality and looked for alternative explanations (wrong ones, might I say). That’s the pure definition of confirmation bias = “the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories”.

And now he tells those who followed his 2 consecutive failed trades (QQQ and SPY) “do whatever you want”.
@bransth

normal for markets to retrace to Fib 61.8-75% after large drops (like the 2/19-3/23 SPY drop) before significantly falling again (retest lows, etc.)

The market isn’t going up with all the shorts and puts out there.

I don’t think I would call it “bias”. It’s almost exclusively technical analysis that he does. He believes the mainstream news a little too much regarding corona, but he shows everything on the charts. It’s all base on TA, not bias. He’s constantly saying that he’s much more accurate with where the price will go then when it will get there.

And probably the squeez-ees are going to figure it out quicker this time around.

I also suspect the algos have leaned to maximize profits by causing a squeeze.

Or there’s a new thing in play that wasn’t present during @rsotc ‘s many years of experience: Jillions of traders have access to computers, and they have money to bet. They are all seeing the terrible fundamentals and they’re loading up on shorts. Short squeezes are not new, but these are powerful enough to send the market higher than it should be. So the jillions of people load up on shorts again and squeeze it higher. (Like Bugs Bunny walking up invisible stairs).

Today’s headline from WSJ: Apple Delays Mass Production of 2020 Flagship iPhones
Excerpt: Apple is pushing back the production ramp-up of its flagship iPhones coming later this year by about a month, as the coronavirus pandemic weakens global consumer demand and disrupts manufacturing across Asia.

Apple also guided lower way ahead of earnings, and pandemic edition iPhone SE with A13 CPU is somewhat telling me their margins are going to get slimmer.

Any plans with TSLA going into earning? Hold, take profit before, etc? Consensus seems pretty optimistic so time to be contrarian?

Yeah, I have removed that mention about semis because after going through SOXX holdings I found that most of them are up, so I figured that AMD must be affected by the upcoming earnings and INTC is recovering from the past earnings or whatever drives it.

Here we go … SPY is at 2875. When that falls all the shorts (unfortunately) will be toast because of the short squeeze.

Pretty scary that Trump said he talked to Tim Cook on Friday and they agreed we’d have a V-shaped recover. It doesn’t sound like Apple earnings will be that bad.

AMD is up. NVDA is up. SOXS is down.

Surprising to some but not others.

Sometimes it’s easier to just go with the trend