I truly wish I am wrong, since I have June puts bought yesterday when SPY was 271. I would make a lot of money with a SPY at 245 or lower, but it looks like nothing can stop the bull trend. Today we have already touched the May 2019 low (SPY @ 275.2) and we’re less than 1% away from the August 2019 low (277.5). It feels like we’re 2 more tweets away from 300.

I mentioned in another post … the unemployment rate skyrocketed, we have an oil crisis with no fix in sight, GDP is predicted to crash, people are dying (new daily death record set yesterday!), while the price action is as bullish as it can be.

What is political in an enumeration of facts?
My point was that no matter what happens in economy or life, the stock market has only one direction … up! And if the Fed is the culprit, because Trump asked the Fed to do it or because that’s what the Fed wants, or if the invisible hand I mentioned is an alien invasion, I don’t care. Guess what … SPY is at 275, waaay far from the 245 T3 Randy mentioned it.

My post, to which I hope Randy will reply at one point, was exactly about that … the fundamental analysis seams to be disconnected from the stock market. Facts don’t seem to matter anymore. Unemployment rate skyrockets, we have an oil crisis with no fix in sight, GDP is predicted to crash, people are dying (new daily death record set yesterday!) and the market is almost back to the August 2019 level.

Comments like that make me appreciate Randy’s unbiased technical analysis. It must be difficult to make sense of the market with underlying political hatred coloring everything you see.

Personally I think you are putting too much faith in the Fed’s abilities and powers. Just beware that you may be buying at the top.

Very good call! (no pun intended). I wish I would have listened to my instinct and done the same thing.
There’s no more “stock market” there’s only a “Fed market” now. The price is wherever the Fed wants it to be.

Dr. Fauci said this morning, that the number of deaths may not be as high as earlier models indicated. The markets seem to have liked that statement, for obvious reasons.

Until actual economic data comes out, this is how the markets will be trading. Good virus news, markets up. Bad virus news, markets down.

Alas, I’m convinced, eventually, the real economic news will come, and then the markets will take that third leg down, and it will probably be quick and violent. Until then, we have to painfully hold some shorts, and possibly have the stops triggered a few times.

Last thing (and no, I’m not a believer in conspiracy theories, I’m just trying to be an objective observer). Your AWESOME videos make comparisons between this crash and previous ones, especially the 2008 financial crisis or the big depression, but I think there is one major difference now: back then we didn’t have the money printer becoming the largest player in the market.

Markets are driven by fear and greed. 2019 seemed maximum greed against a back drop of already poor fundamentals. The Fed cut and lied at every point driving the market higher (remember we were forecast for 3 rate hikes last year!?) instead we got a number of cuts and ‘NotQE’ bailing out the repo market. The Fed have kind of used most of their bullet now at all time highs in fact. When fear that actually no one is going back to work in 4 weeks time kicks back in it may change again. Then QE infinity that may ensue seems a good reason to own gold ahead of hyperinflation.

Yes. Agree. QQQ & SPY charts are helpful first thing in the morning; especially when the after hours has been active.

Interesting chart from GS the tax cuts from Trump for buy backs to cancel stock and pump EPS are eroding. Removing a bid from the market?

The way I see it, when the market is in trouble, a big lie pushes it up (which is perfectly fine), but then an invisible force (the FED?) keeps it up and pushes it up even more – because this invisible hand changes the price action and feeds the bulls.
Of course, one might say, “but look at the drop from the end of February”. Well, of course, when there’s a shock, the drop is instantaneous, which keeps going until the invisible hand get’s its ducks in a row, but that’s extreme short lived.

The way I see it, betting on market drops (against the invisible hand), is pretty much destined to fail. Well, at the very least until November.