A rejection off the TL followed by impulsive selling and a solid move back down below 57.80 would certainly help to firm up the case for a swing short on /CL or USO. Targets would be any & quite possibly all of those horizontal support lines on that chart with that first white line around 54.76 as my preferred swing target at this time, again, should we get decent evidence of a reversal which we don’t have yet.

There aren’t any stats on that since everyone draws trendlines differently. It also depends on a myriad of other factors such as: Was there also other resistance that came into play with the TL backtest (i.e., price resistance, Fib levels, a key moving average, etc.). Basically, a backtest of a recently broken trendline is a potential & likely area for a reaction and quite possibly a lasting reversal. If I had to put odds on it, the range would be so large depending on all of the various factors that would come into play that it wouldn’t be very useful but for this specific backtest on crude, I would say the odds are decent but not great, hence one of the reasons that I’m still not adding crude as an official short trade right now.