but so many return scenarios are pie in the sky hopeful that it skews common sense. i can make any number of cases to trade a thing that COULD go to x, but if i look at the chart, its not gonna go there. all im saying. i never make up risk reward scenarios. its almost fantasy.

Yes & hence the 0.35 (~1/3rd) position size adjustment as I’ve seen TVIX move up or down more than that in a single day & not just the rare, one-off move. TVIX is not a stock nor is it an ETN that trades a commodity or sector. It tracks the $VIX which itself can & often does go up or down 20%+ in a single day.
The only constant in trading & investing that many fail to grasp is the immutable correlation between risk & return, which go hand in hand. Show me a trade idea that has a good chance of producing a 50-100% return in just a matter of weeks, which TVIX has done on numerous occasions in just the past year alone, that doesn’t also come with the risk of a double-digit loss (also think low-price biotechs, pot stocks, Bitcoin, etc..).
Most have a hard time grasping that simple concept that risk & return go hand in hand. One might say “ok, I see the triple-digit gain potential in TVIX but I won’t allow for a 17% stop in the attempt to get it”. My answer to that would be not to waste your time on the trade because if you attempt to swing trade a very volatile security such as TVIX with a tight stop of, say 3% or 5%, I would say the odds are near 100% that the trade would be stopped out in the day to day above-average price swings long before the price target was hit, even if TVIX started trending in your direction from the second the trade was entered. As mentioned at entry, TVIX was (and still is & always will be) an aggressive trade so certainly not for everyone.

T2 next, with or without a minor reaction there (and one that I don’t care or plan to game) & then T3 if my read on the chart is correct.

Kara85- I modified the stop on TVIX yesterday to a daily close vs. any move below 18.48 & could possibly modify it again today, depending on what happens in the stock market but if I do so, I will make the change via a front/blog page post which will send out an email notification to all subscribers.

I plan to do an update on gold asap but basically, GLD has now hit 130, which has been my initial swing/trend target for at least the past year & a very significant resistance level IMO so at this point, I would expect at least a decent (1-2 week+) consolidation around current levels & quite likely a correction **IF** the stock market continues higher from here, which is still not my preferred scenario, despite today’s rally so far.
Bottom line is that the R/R to adding or especially starting a long position in gold here at the 130 GLD level is not favorable IMO. I remain longer-term bullish on gold & intermediate-term neutral. Should the stock market reverse & start to move substantially lower soon, as I still suspect is the most likely scenario, then gold could continue to catch a bid & possible take out GLD 130 & continue to run.

I never suspended or revised the stop of QQQ yesterday. The only stop that was modified recently was TVIX in which I changed it from any move below 18.48 to a daily close below 18.48. The reason for that is that from experience, increased price swing in the markets is a near-certainty leading up to & especially in the wake of a big FOMC meeting like the one that concluded yesterday.
I’ve traded through similar market-moving FOMC meetings in the past on many occasions & what I’ve seen is that the initial reaction, not just immediately after the announcement but sometimes up to 1 or 2-days (be it a rip or dip) is quite often faded. Not always but enough for me to say that the odds of this post-FOMC rip being faded are good enough for me to risk a loss larger than initially allowed for on the stops for the QQQ & TVIX trades.
As of now, no change on the QQQ stop which remains any close above 188.30 but depending on what I see the rest of today, I might revise that one & possibly even TVIX once again. If so, just remember those are general suggestions on not one-size-fits-all trade parameters. I often say that the charts are dynamic & so is my analysis & therefore, although I don’t do it very often, at times I will revise a trading plan after I’ve already entered the position.

ouch. and a straight line it was

Its down 17% from where it was listed as a “buy” trade.

What about tvix?