I would put a much higher emphasis on the US Dollar or EUR/USD in regards to where gold, silver, & the miners are headed as the positive correlation to the Euro (and inverse correlation to the US Dollar) is much stronger & historically persistent than any correlations between the metals & Treasuries.

Another consideration is that I believe there are most likely two factors that are likely to cause a breakdown & substantial downtrend below that primary uptrend line in the 10-yr Treasury yield: 1) Either an abatement in inflation expectations (which is likely to be concurrent with expectations of future slowing in the economy…i.e.- not good for the stock market) or… 2) A flight-to-safety into Treasury bonds from institutional investors (likely to be caused by instability or an outright shock to the financial markets).

There could certainly be a more “bullish for the stock market” scenario of falling rates, maybe foreign buying of US Treasuries for trade imbalance/settlement-related issues, although I put the odds well below the two most likely outcomes that I mentioned above.

Thx. FWIW, I’m not putting a very high weighting on that /NQ downtrend line simply because the comparable downtrend line (off the July highs) on QQQ comes in at a lower level & QQQ has moved back above it today. Should QQQ dump hard in the final hour of trading today (it is 3pm now) to close back below it, that would help to validate that TL but as of right now, that would take a pretty hard fade into the close. Again, thx for sharing the chart.

Of course, a major (10%+) new high is always a possibility, just not probable IMO. Among many other technical as well as fundamental reasons is the fact that should the indexes make a marginal new high soon (this year), it will extend the existing negative divergences that are in place on both the daily & weekly time frames. That, coupled with other (current, but subject to change) technicals such as market breadth, technical posture of most of the market-leading stocks & sectors, etc.. put the odds a good to very good that any breakout to new highs will prove to be a false (failed) breakout & most likely provide the final bout of short-covering & new hot money on the long-side needed to provide the fuel for a big enough drop to take out the 2022 lows.

My odds change in real-time just like betting on the ponies before the window closes so if we get some of those potentially bullish outcomes on the charts I posted in this post above (semis rally off the uptrend line; AAPL, SPY, & QQQ remain above the Aug 18th lows; EUR/USD mounts a substantial rally; $TNX makes a solid breakdown below the primary uptrend line; etc.. then the odds for at least a marginal new high & potentially more will increase accordingly. Should the opposite of all those things occur, the odds that the July highs marked the end of a bear market rally with another big leg down underway will increase substantially IMO.

The charting platform I’ve been using for the /NQ charts hasn’t yet ‘recognized the Dec as the continuous contract & there’s no way to ‘force’ that. They usually make the change shortly before the current month contract expires. Until they change the continuous from the Sept to Dec contract, they only show the ACTUAL Dec contract, which has very spotty candles as you go back due to the very low trading volume (see below).

Along with expected strength in QQQ into the end of the year, as managers chase performance, I’d imagine they’ll also want to get underperformers off the books… In other words, we can probably short KRE and IWM and the like into the end of the year.