NG back below 2.326. Looks like a failed breakout.

In Randy’s last video, he mentions inflationary movement in commodities. Remember Powell stated that rate hikes won’t be considered until he sees inflation. All it will take is a CPI surprise reading to slap bulls in the face. Free money can’t and won’t last forever! When the QE spigot is closed, there will be nowhere for bulls to go.

Trading UGAZ offers lower risk? Hahaa, tell that to people under water 40% from last targets.

thank you for the insight .

This market feels totally like 1999 (I was there). We go up because everyone has FOMO.
This time its also the FED and a president artificially pumping the markets. No idea how long this can go on.

Randy have said, almost everyday, that the gains in the main indexes are not worth the risk. S&P 500 is up about 0.8% today, which is a fairly big move. But UNG is up over 2%, and UGAZ, which is what I use to play NG, is up over 6%. So better to trade something that offers higher return with lower risk. Also this week is option ex, which makes trading high flying equities a bit harder.

ok. thanks.

Great question but that’s hard to estimate because it would be not only a function of price (i.e.- how much $SPX would have to climb) but also a function of time as well (i.e.- WHEN it might get to that point). A signal variable would make it much easier to guessimate but a combination of the two has too many possibilities.

For example, if the market stalled out this week & then made a relatively minor correction -OR- it just started trading sideways for weeks? or months?, the momentum indicators would either flatten out or turn back down (depending on how much and/or how long the market dropped or traded sideways). Even a tight sideways consolidation will turn down the indicators because that is a change from an uptrend (i.e.- positive slope) to a sideways trend (i.e.- flat or no slope).

I will say that with seasonality favoring the bullish case right now & what seems to be a relatively sudden & strong shift in sentiment & expectations that the risk of a recession in 2020 has plummeted in recent weeks, one possibility is a blow-off top that spikes the market up to take out those divergences (on the daily chart) within the next 4-10 weeks. If that happened, I would guess that another 8-10% upside from here might take out the divergences

Keep in mind that divergences are not a requirement for a trend change in the market or a particular security so a blow-off top scenario that takes out the divergences could still end up marking a major inflection point in the market.