RSOTC Weekly Recaps Archives - Right Side Of The Chart

RSOTC Weekly Recap & TTW 8-17-26

rsotc — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:33:38 +0000

A comprehensive weekly technical market recap and trade review covering major stock indexes ($SPX, QQQ, /NQ, /ES), Treasury bond yields ($TYX, TLT), the 401(k) Trend Indicator, volatility setups ($VIX, VIXY), and completed trade profits in TRUP and SPCX. Includes actionable swing trade setups across consumer staples rotation, precious metals (GDX), energy (/NG), and key things to watch for the week ahead—including the potential breakout in agricultural commodities (TILL) and the macro risks of surging global bond yields.

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RSOTC Weekly Recap & TTW 8-10-26

rsotc — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:55:28 +0000

Here is the RSOTC weekly recap for the week ending Friday, August 7, 2026, as well as the "Things to Watch This Week" (TTW) for the week going forward: 1. Major Topics & Sector Breakdown Financial Sector & Volatility Analysis $VIX & Market Volatility: Highlighted growing positive/bullish divergences at the bottom of $VIX's historical range. [...]

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RSOTC Weekly Recap & Things To Watch 8-3-26

rsotc — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:44:06 +0000

Navigate the financial markets with clarity. This update delivers in-depth technical analysis, key support and resistance levels, and objective swing trade setups across broad market indexes, tech megacaps, semiconductors, and commodities. Review active profit targets, trailing stops, and critical macro developments to prepare your portfolio for the week ahead.

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RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-24-26

rsotc — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 22:18:32 +0000

The following provides a weekly recap of content published on rightsideofthechart.com between July 20, 2026, and July 24, 2026, as well as some potential developments & key earnings reports to watch for next week.

1. Trade Ideas, Targets Hit & Milestones (July 20 – July 24, 2026)*

*NOTE: Some of the trades below from this AI-generated summary, such as TSLA, were not official trade ideas, but rather included in the “post-earnings predictions” videos calling for the stocks to rise or fall after their quarterly earnings report.

Ticker	Asset / Company	Trade Type	Status / Development	Realized Gain / Loss
APLD	Applied Digital Corp.	Short	Hit T1 (First Profit Target) for +22% profit; July 21 update highlighted an objective re-entry / add-on zone on the backtest of broken T1 / 200-day MAs.	+22% Profit(Active for T2)
SJM	The J.M. Smucker Co.	Long	Bear trap recovery trade approaching final price target near overhead resistance.	~+27% Profit(+4% Div)
TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	Short	Bearish post-earnings call played out cleanly following breakdown below primary uptrend line.	~+17% Drop / Gain
STM	STMicroelectronics NV	Short	Bearish post-earnings call played out, reaching primary uptrend line and 200-day MA final target zone.	~+16% Drop / Gain
MSTR	MicroStrategy Inc.	Short	Highlighted on backtest resistance following a broken downtrend line.	~+14% Gain(Active)
IBM	International Business Machines	Long	Bounced off $198.74 support following earnings; stops on Active Long Trade were briefly suspended & reinstated, revised to any close below $198.70.	~+7% Bounce(Active)
TXN	Texas Instruments Inc.	Short	Bearish earnings call hit key target support level at $274.89.	~+3.5% Drop / Gain

2. Weekly Market Overview & Sector Analysis

Broad Market Indexes & Volatility

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ / $NDX / /NQ): Broke down below a daily symmetrical triangle pattern. While testing T1 support (~$686 on QQQ / 28,400 on /NQ), buyers are displaying decreasing vigor despite a minor 60-minute positive divergence. Backtests of the broken triangle boundary and 50-day EMA offered objective short entries. Maintained downside targets toward T2 ($662) and T4 / 200-day moving average (~$636). QQQ closed the week right on the bottom of the T1 (first price target & support) zone with positive divergences in place. As such, we’ll have to wait until next week to see if QQQ will once again bounce off that key support, or clearly take it out, thereby increasing the odds the next downside price target(s) will be hit.
S&P 500 (SPY / $SPX): Broke its primary uptrend line and remains locked in a multi-month sideways consolidation range, facing broad market sell-off pressure.
Small-Caps (IWM / $RUT / /RTY): Displaying multi-month negative divergences across weekly and monthly timeframes following a daily rising wedge breakdown and backtest. A break below $228 support accelerates downside.
Volatility Index ($VIX): Continuing to build massive multi-month positive divergence at resistance inside a bullish falling wedge. A $VIX downtrend breakout will signal a broad market correction.

Sectors & Asset Classes

Semiconductor Sector (SOXX, XSD, SOXS): Under heavy pressure down ~24% from all-time highs. Confirmed a high-level weekly bearish PPO crossover and a weekly bearish engulfing candle off the March 2025 uptrend line. Equal-weighted XSD is testing primary horizontal support, with risk toward its 40-week EMA (~34% total drop from peak).
Financial Sector (XLF): Highlighted as the core sector holding up the broader equity market. Triggered a sell signal by breaking down from a 60-minute bearish rising wedge following multi-year weekly negative divergence. Initial support sits at $54.92; a loss of $54.92 will catalyze a broader market breakdown.
Gold, Silver & Miners (GLD, GDX, /GC): Spot Gold / GLD is holding primary horizontal support (~$361 on GLD) with positive divergence on 120-minute and daily charts, setting up a high-conviction counter-trend bounce (~24% bear market rally call on Gold Futures /GC). Gold Miners (GDX) are triggered a buy signal on a breakout above the 60-minute falling wedge, closing the week above it, with GLD remaining above the key 361ish support, keeping both Active Long Trades on buy signals for now.
Consumer Staples & Packaged Foods (PPC, JJSF, SJM): Selective bullish coverage on packaged food stocks offering favorable risk/reward setups and dividend yields. Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) forms a falling wedge near $26.65 support; J&J Snack Foods (JJSF) forms positive divergence with a 4.2% yield targeting $98.23.

Fixed Income & Currencies

30-Year Treasury Yield ($TYX) & Long Bonds (TLT): $TYX is testing multi-year triple-top resistance around 5.162%. A sustained breakout above ~5.16% would push long-term yields to pre-2008 highs, placing severe pressure on equities and corporate refinancing.
10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) & IEF: $TNX sits near the top of its range while IEF cracks its primary uptrend line on the weekly chart.
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD): Displaying positive divergence, though intermediate trend remains bearish with the daily PPO remaining below its zero line. Next support levels to watch are ~105.30 & then the 103ish level.
US Dollar Index ($DXY): Testing an uptrend line with negative divergence. EUR/USD shows a bullish falling wedge setup, while USD/JPY displays a rising wedge with three consecutive negative divergent highs.

3. Individual Securities & Earnings Analysis

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Post-earnings bearish/down call played out with a ~17% drop. Sitting at minor support near $310.60 with PPO in bearish territory; not an objective knife-catch candidate at this time.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Post-earnings drop of ~7%, hugging its 200-day moving averages. Line-in-the-sand support sits at $313.78.
Intel Corp. (INTC): Bearish post-earnings call played out, down ~7.5% following a failed breakdown below a bearish rising wedge along with a failed breakout & then drop down to the bottom of & now below the recent 2.5 month sideways trading range/consolidation zone. With my first target of the bottom of that zone (99.59) recently hit & now taken out, that increases the odds of my next downside price targets of 80.40 followed by the intersecting uptrend support and $69.90ish price support + 200-day moving averages being hit in the coming weeks.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX): Bearish post-earnings call played out, dropping ~7% after losing its 50-day EMA. Targets sit at $1,505, 200-day MA, and $1,233.
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR): Highlighted as an aggressive short entry at backtest resistance following a broken downtrend line right off the recent highs on Tuesday of this week. Down ~14% since the call, with high leverage creating forced Bitcoin liquidation risk on further downside.
Bitcoin ($BTC / /BTC / IBIT): Brief breakout of a bullish falling wedge encountered rejection at resistance. Must break below recent reaction lows to invalidate positive divergence and confirm accelerated downside. Also highlighted as an objective but aggressive short on Tuesday, with the stock closing red every day since.
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT): Bounced off $488 support with positive divergence following a falling wedge backtest, reaching its T3 target ($535 / 200-day MA). T4 resistance acts as a strict exit zone.
Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC): Bullish falling wedge pattern consolidating near key horizontal support ($26.65). Breakout trigger above $30.32 targets $34.10 and the 200-day MA.
J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF): Formed positive divergence in a downtrend with a ~4.2% dividend yield. Primary breakout level at $87.875 (200-day MA) targets $98.23 (~28% upside potential).
Newmont Corp. (NEM): Bullish earnings call holding above $89.00 horizontal support with positive divergence. GDX is the current proxy/preferred trading vehicle & Active Long Swing Trade for the gold mining sector, although NEM is one of the largest miners & the chart still appears constructive for a potential double-digit rally in the coming months; should both GLD & NEM hold these key support levels they’ve been testing in recent weeks.
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD): Daily chart exhibits positive divergence at $261.46 support (starter long zone); weekly chart broke its primary secular uptrend line with a long-term bear market target at $228.00.
ServiceNow Inc. (NOW): Neutral / flat post-earnings following previous long trade completion at the 200-day MA ($136.53).
United Rentals Inc. (URI): Earnings pop extended into a marginal high, keeping negative divergence intact. Close to triggering a sell signal on a breakdown below the PPO zero line although no sell signals or evidence of a reversal at this time.
Nokia Corp. (NOK): Oversold after dropping ~44% from peak; testing primary uptrend line and 200-day MAs. Closed the week on uptrend line support as well as the intersecting 200-day SMA (dual support). As such, NOK might be added as an official long swing trade early next week for an “oversold/bounce off support” trade, depending on how the charts look.

4. Key Developments & Levels to Watch Going Forward

NASDAQ 100 ($NDX / QQQ / /NQ) T1 Support Test: Watch if QQQ holds or clearly breaches the bottom of the T1 price target/support zone, which comes in around 683.30. A decisive close below opens up a rapid decline towards the next price targets (T2-T4)/ 200-day MA (~$636). 2. Financial Sector ($XLF) Wedge Breakdown: Triggered a breakdown below the bearish rising wedge pattern on the XLF 60-minute & daily charts on Monday & closed the week solidly below it, keeping the financials on a sell signal. First price target & support comes in around $54.92 support, alongside key supports on Bank of America (BAC) which closed the week right on the uptrend of its comparable bearish rising wedge (sell signal pending a break below it & then the next support around 56.87). JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also parked on the uptrend line that defines the bottom of a similar bearish rising wedge pattern with a sell signal to come on a solid break and/or daily close below it. First target/support, if a sell signal is triggered comes in at $320.25 with the 200-day MA’s just below it. This (sell signals on JPM & BAC) would likely trigger a broad-based selloff, especially if the remaining Mag 8/big tech stocks that report earnings next week move substantially lower. I will cover those market-leading stocks scheduled to report next week (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & META) on Monday, as collectively, they have the potential to be the catalyst to break the stock market out of the nearly 3-month sideways trading range & spark the next swing tradable trend in the major indices.
Semiconductor Sector (SOXX / XSD) Weekly Sell-Off: With high-level weekly bearish PPO crossovers confirmed on SOXX and XSD, short-term rallies should be treated as objective short entries or add-on levels rather than long entries to chase.
Bitcoin ($BTC) & MicroStrategy (MSTR) Support: Monitor $BTC near recent lows and MSTR resistance backtests around $102.19. A breakdown to new lows risks triggering margin-driven liquidation on leveraged holdings.
Gold & Miners Wedge Breakouts (/GC / GLD / GDX): 60-minute falling wedge breakout in GDX and GLD was confirmed, increasing the odds for a sustained counter-trend rally toward higher targets on Gold Futures (/GC), gold ETF (GLD), gold miners ETF (GDX), and silver (SLV, /SI, etc.)
30-Year Treasury Yield ($TYX) 5.16% Breakout: Watch whether $TYX makes a solid & sustained breakout above 5.16% multi-year triple-top resistance, which would significantly tighten global credit conditions and weigh on growth equities.

Comma-Delineated Ticker List

$SPX, $NDX, $RUT, $VIX, $DXY, $TNX, $TYX, $BTC, /NQ, /ES, /BTC, /GC, QQQ, SPY, IWM, SOXX, XSD, XLF, GLD, GDX, TLT, IEF, LQD, IBIT, MSTZ, TSLA, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, FIX, MSTR, LMT, PPC, JJSF, SJM, KHC, URRI, NEM, BMR, COIN, RIOT, MARA, HIVE, AAL, BX, STM, NOW, URI, NOK, MCD, APLD

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RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-18-26

rsotc — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 17:09:24 +0000

Here is the weekly recap of the topics, securities covered, and swing trade ideas posted on rightsideofthechart.com between July 11, 2026, and July 18, 2026:

1. Weekly Market Overview & Sectors Covered

The analysis from this week highlights an environment marked by aggressive internal sector rotation and a potential transition from a pure “stockpicker’s market” into an elevated risk phase for broad-based market corrections.

Nasdaq 100 Futures (/NQ) & ETF (QQQ): Stalled out in a tight, two-month-long sideways consolidation. Technical analysis notes heavy, long-standing negative divergences on daily and weekly timeframes. A bearish PPO crossover forming on the weekly chart historically hints at a potential 13% to 26% broad market correction.
PHLX Semiconductor Index / iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Struck heavily by institutional unwinding and capital outflows. The sector already triggered a weekly bearish PPO crossover, resulting in a swift 24% decline from recent highs & hitting T1 (first price target) on the daily chart mid-week & printing a solid close below it on Friday, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target(s) will be hit in the coming days/weeks.
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF): Highlighted as the critical sector holding up the broader equity market. Large negative divergences are visible on daily and weekly charts alongside a bearish rising wedge on the 60-minute timeframe. A sector sell signal is anticipated upon a decisive breakdown out of the bearish rising wedge pattern that was highlighted on the 60-minute chart.
CBOE Market Volatility Index ($VIX): Exhibiting a bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence. Historically, when financials roll over to meet broader market breakdowns, a 50%+ volatility spike has been the standard macro response.
Gold, Silver & Mining Equities (GDX, GLD, SLV): Gold (GLD) continues to test major multi-month price support (the final price target for the recent short trade off the all-time highs in gold) following recent short-covering pullbacks. Near-to-intermediate timeframes exhibit positive (bullish) divergences, setting up constructive scaling-in long setups or swing trades for the precious metals & miners.
Grains & Soft Agriculture (TILL, /ZS, /ZW, /ZC, SOYB, WEAT, CORN): The continuous macro-bullish thesis remains fully intact across physical agricultural commodities (soybeans, wheat, corn, sugar) as defensive, uncorrelated, inflation-resistant asset allocations.

2. Individual Securities Analyzed

Financials & Payment Processors

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): In a bullish trend, albeit with a bearish technical posture; watching for a definitive sell signal if price breaks below its key primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average confluence (the $206–$210 range).
Visa Inc. (V) & Mastercard Inc. (MA): Both credit networks are exhibiting clean 60-minute bearish rising wedges paired with negative divergences right against their recent all-time highs.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC): Testing major primary support at $52.63, which perfectly intersects its 200-day moving average and bull market trendline. A solid break below that support would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, particularly if the majority of the other large banks and XLF also trigger sell signals around that time.
Morgan Stanley (MS): Already broke beneath its primary uptrend line and completed a back-test from below (now working as overhead resistance).
Goldman Sachs Group ($GS): Pointed out for short potential as it tests a steep, overextended uptrend line with substantial negative divergence.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): Pullback trajectory targets the $83.00 handle, tracking down toward structural support and its rising 200-day moving average.
American Express Co. (AXP): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern with intermediate-to-long-term targets pointing to an eventual 30% drop from recent peaks.
Citigroup Inc. (C): “Walking the line” on a minor short-term uptrend; a clean breach lower would confirm a sector-wide financial flush.

Mega-Cap Tech & Semiconductors

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): Bearish near-term trend (lower lows & lower highs) following a divergent high with a long-term bullish trend & intermediate-term sideways trend; watching price action with a confluence of price & 200-day moving average support around the $190 level, with the next sell signal to come on a solid break below it.
Apple Inc. (AAPL): Bearish setup utilizing a distinct rising wedge and momentum divergence targeting a 17% decline back to its 200-day simple moving average.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Testing multi-month dual support right at its primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Stuck in a technical “no man’s land” floating between its immediate price support floor and its deeper 200-day moving average.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Trapped by a failed breakout above its previous all-time highs; technical breakdown pending a near-term trendline crack.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Failed breakout pattern displaying sharp negative divergence; eyeing a correction down to its key 200-day moving average.
Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Trading directly under a long-term, multi-month structural resistance line off its historical highs.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Experiencing momentum loss inside a large symmetrical triangle; keeping a tight eye on the April 2024 trendline anchor, as a solid break and/or daily close below would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, most likely exerting pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Marked as a high-probability short swing candidate; a break of immediate support opens up a potential 50% macro drawdown.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): High intermediate downside risk targeting a primary support zone and moving average confluence down ~40% off its highs.
ASML Holding NV (ASML): Flagged as an objective short play on a clean trendline breakdown and subsequent back-test from below.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Sitting on immediate trendline support; technicals warn of severe institutional “unwinding” potential ahead.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): Bearish swing trade setup targeting an eventual 30% correction down to the $101.80 price support level.
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX): Bearish structure targeting a deep pullback to its underlying 200-day moving average confluence support.
Intel Corp. (INTC): As predicted back on June 18th (click to view that post with summary notes on INTC), this key semiconductor stock went on to trigger a sell signal on a break below the uptrend line off its key March 30th pivot low, also going on to make the predicted failed breakout/bull trap above the top of its 2-month sideways trading range after putting in a marginal new & divergent high, with a swift drop back down to the initial price target of the bottom of that range at 99.59, constituting a swift 29% drop from that divergent high. INTC went on to trigger the next sell signal on Thursday with a solid break & close below the 99.59 target/support, with downside follow-through on Friday to close the week solidly below the trading range, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target around 80.40 will be hit in the coming days/weeks.

Crypto-Adjacent, Commodities, & Consumer Staples

MicroStrategy (MSTR): Highly linked component of broad equity and cryptocurrency risk. The stock broke down below an essential multi-month support line at $102.19 on June 24th, shifting macro technical dynamics lower, with multiple attempts to recover that former support, now resistance, level since then, failing, with MSTR rejected. Deep downside targets remain active, with a risk of an eventual margin-driven liquidation model unfolding. However, with positive divergences still in place at the recent lows on both MSTR & Bitcoin, we need to see the recent lows in both taken out & even better, if the positive divergences are also taken out, in order to sharply increase the odds that my next downside price target(s) on MSTR & Bitcoin will be hit.
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern; a breakdown beneath the lower trendline will trigger a high-conviction short trade.
Analog Devices (ADI) & Seagate Technology (STX): Both technology names are rolling over off clearly defined divergent highs near their peaks.
Western Digital (WDC): Sitting precariously on a near-term uptrend line; a decisive daily close below acts as an active sell signal.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): Consumer staples short thesis building around “subscription fatigue”; looking for a decisive break beneath $907 support.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Stood out as a technical rejection; turned lower directly off its 200-day moving average despite positive divergence.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Bearish pre-earnings profile mapping out a deep macro-structural downside target down near the $46.00 handle.
Mondelez International (MDLZ): Retesting its primary daily horizontal support line; maintaining a strictly neutral stance for now.
Walmart Inc. (WMT): Sluggish technical profile after breaking below its primary uptrend line; currently backtesting its 200-day moving average from below.
Oracle Corp (ORCL): Long-term setup offering an objective buy zone as it tests a major secular uptrend line stretching back to 2020.
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) & Health Care Sector (XLV): XLV displayed a bearish island reversal candle off a failed triple-top breakout. Eli Lilly is pulling back off a distinct divergent high, signaling that its multi-month momentum run is likely near its end.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Pulling back on negative divergence to retest its previous macro breakout level down at $220.44.

3. Active Swing Trade Setups Initiated This Week

The following setups were posted as objective new trade entries or tactical bounce candidates:

IBM (International Business Machines Corp) — Active Long (Tactical Bounce):
- Setup: Initiated as a reflexive “catch-a-falling-knife” long bounce entry following a quick 26% drop into major horizontal support.
- Entry Zone: Long near support around $215.18.
- Stop-Loss: Daily close below $208.82 (~3% risk).
- Price Target: First profit target (T1) is set just below $234.78 support-turned-resistance (~9% gain), offering an attractive 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
ERIE (Erie Indemnity Co.) — Active Long (Breakout Backtest):
- Setup: Initiated on July 14th as an objective long entry on a technical backtest of a broken price channel and horizontal support following a fresh breakout.
- Entry Zone: Long at support around $234.60.
- Stop-Loss: Suggested stop was a daily close below $224.90. (Note: See Completed Trades below for milestone update).
Tactical Mean-Reversion Long Bounce Candidates:
- T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): Long bounce candidate targeting a tactical 5% to 10% move up to overhead price resistance.
- Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG): Mean-reversion long bounce play initiated right off solid price support sitting at $366.
- Adobe Inc. (ADBE): High-conviction long bounce trade exhibiting powerful positive divergence; targeting an 18% upside move to its 200-day SMA.
- Intuit Inc. (INTU): Extremely oversold technical conditions setting up a high-probability mean-reversion long bounce back up to its 200-day SMA.

4. Completed Swing Trades & Milestone Recaps

The following table covers all official swing trade positions that hit one or more profit targets or triggered a stop-loss during this weekly window, including their exact realized percentages:

Ticker	Company / Asset	Trade Type	Development / Milestone	Percentage Gain / Loss
KHC	Kraft Heinz Co.	Long	Hit T4 (Fourth & Final Price Target). Trade closed out fully to the completed archives.	+25% Profit (Includes $0.40 dividend)
/CL (USO)	Crude Oil Futures / Fund	Long	Hit T2. Revised to Final Target due to overbought conditions. Trade closed fully to archives.	+16% Profit
/NQ (QQQ)	Nasdaq 100 Futures / ETF	Short	Swiftly took out nearby supports to hit the next official price target at 28,525 (QQQ T1 zone). Position remains active for deeper targets.	Milestone Hit (Range-bound short entry from trendline break)
APLD	Applied Digital Corp.	Short	Hit T1 (First Price Target) just two weeks after breaking below the $37.68 S1 support level. Position remains active for T2.	+22% Profit
SHOP	Shopify Inc.	Short	Active short trade completed its cycle after successfully hitting three sequential targets. Current bounce is categorized as a counter-trend move.	Milestone Closed
RYAN	Ryan Specialty Holdings	Long	Counter-trend long position hit its final targets underneath its 200-day moving average. Trade closed.	+35% Profit
PGR	Progressive Corp.	Long	Completed long swing trade hit its third target milestone. Position closed into widespread sector profit-taking.	Milestone Closed
ERIE	Erie Indemnity Co.	Long	Reversing hard off the initial breakout level, price fell through support to trigger the suggested daily closing stop of $224.90.	-11% Loss

5. Potential Developments to Watch Going Forward

The Financial Sector Break Point: Randy Phinney emphasizes that the broader stock market will not face a systemic flush until the financial sector officially buckles. Watch for a decisive 60-minute closing break below the active rising wedge pattern on XLF (and key support levels on heavyweights like BAC at $52.63 and JPM at $206–$210) next week to catalyze the next macro leg down.
The Nasdaq 100 T1 Support Floor: Following a swift reaction bounce off the initial tag of the 28,525 support zone on /NQ (and the matching T1 first price target zone on QQQ), the index is retesting this floor. Because a consolidation range has built up here since June, a clean breakdown below this zone is highly likely to accelerate a rapid, fluid drop down toward the next deep targets and the 200-day moving average (~$636 on QQQ).
The Weekly Semiconductor Reset: Keep a close eye on the weekly charts of SOXX and XSD. A major, high-level bearish PPO histogram crossover is actively printing out of historic overbought territory. This structural shift fundamentally maps out a multi-week trajectory of selling, making any short-term bounces objective short entries or add-on levels rather than long entries to chase.
Gold Miner Scale-In Execution: Watch the structural price floor of GDX between the current $72.26 support level down to the absolute trailing floor of $67. As long as the sector holds above $67, the positive daily momentum divergences favor an intermediate counter-trend accumulation phase, utilizing falling crude prices as a margin-widening tailwind.

The post RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-18-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-12-26

rsotc — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 22:06:55 +0000

Here is a weekly recap of the topics, securities, and trade developments posted on rightsideofthechart.com for the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026:

1. Executive Market Commentary & Strategy

Summer Doldrums: Trading volume remains light with choppy, “whipsaw” price action typical of the low-liquidity weeks surrounding the Independence Day holiday. Technical breakouts during this period are viewed with skepticism.
Sideways Consolidation: Major equity indices remain locked in a sloppy, sideways two-to-three-month trading range.
Strategic Execution: Randy Phinney emphasizes that the current environment is heavily a “stockpicker’s market.” Traders are advised to map out precise entry levels and use OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) orders to automatically manage risk and lock in profits.

2. Major Stock Market Indices & ETFs

Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) / Nasdaq 100 Futures (Ticker: /NQ): Locked in a tight sideways range since mid-May between $725.64 resistance and $705 support. Price momentum indicators (PPO/RSI) are showing heavy, persistent negative divergences at recent marginal highs, carrying an 80%+ historical failure rate. Phinney continues to favor an ultimate downside breakdown targeting the $636 level (the 200-day moving average) while recognizing the potential for a marginal new high, which would still be a divergent high & likely to fail shortly afterwards, if that alternative scenario occurs anytime soon.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Mirroring the QQQ, it is locked in a sloppy sideways range after breaking its primary March uptrend line. Looking for a breakdown to back-test the top of its multi-month base and its 200-day moving average near $496.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Ticker: IWM): Small-caps are sitting on an active sell signal. After breaking down from a clear bearish rising wedge pattern off the March lows, it completed a technical back-test of the broken trendline and turned lower. A new downside target has been added at $218 to check a key gap fill.
PHLX Semiconductor Index (Index: $SOX / ETF Ticker: SOXX): Long-term weekly charts indicate the sector is historically overbought. Upward momentum has stalled out completely, making a major bearish weekly PPO crossover imminent. The historically patterns of significant corrections & bear markets that have generally followed bearish crossovers on the weekly PPO can be viewed during Friday’s coverage of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (Index: SOX / ETF Ticker: SOXX) at the following timestamp | [51:58]

3. Internal Market Health & Macro Indicators

Market Breadth ($NAA200R / $NAA50R): Phinney highlights a dangerous internal disparity. While cap-weighted indices sit near all-time highs, over half of individual stocks within the NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving average (only 44% are above it). Market upside has been artificially sustained by mega-cap tech and select chip stocks while broad participation degrades.
Equity-Only Put-to-Call Ratio (Indicator: $CPCE): Sentiment gauges display extreme, persistent complacency without a “reset” spike in fear since late 2023. This leaves the structural architecture of the market highly vulnerable to sudden corrections.
US 30-Year Treasury Yield (Indicator: $TYX): Hovering within “spitting distance” of breaking out past a massive multi-decade triple-top resistance at 5.15%. Higher lows suggest risk is skewed toward an upside breakout, indicating the Federal Reserve has effectively lost control of the long end of the yield curve.
Commodities & Inflation (ETFs: DJP / DBC): Noted as the single best real-time indicator of sticky, structural inflation. Commodities have consistently made higher highs & lower highs (i.e., an uptrend) since ending a secular bear market in 2020.

4. Sectors, Individual Securities, & Commodities

Consumer Discretionary Sector (ETF Ticker: XLY): Long-term monthly charts show a massive multi-year negative divergence building. A breakdown beneath its primary trendline (currently dancing on daily support near $114) could target an ultimate 44%–45% drop down to $64.50 over the next year or two.
- Amazon (Ticker: AMZN): Briefly bounced from its 200-day moving average, but lacks appealing structural technical characteristics.
- Tesla (Ticker: TSLA): Walking a key primary uptrend line; a dynamic breakdown here would weigh heavily on the broad market indices.
- Home Depot (Ticker: HD): After a 25% rally off a wedge breakout, it repeatedly failed to clear its 200-day moving average resistance. It rolled over 7% and is actively flashing a bearish PPO crossover.
- McDonald’s (Ticker: MCD): Holds a positive divergence but remains pinned beneath a downtrend line. It is a sit-and-wait asset that becomes attractive if it drops to $262.
- TJX Companies (Ticker: TJX): Flashing a bear flag pattern while retesting a multi-year uptrend line and its 200-day moving average simultaneously. A break below support targets a ~10% drop into the $78–$86 zone.
- Booking Holdings (Ticker: BKNG): Trapped in a clear markdown trend, zigzagging lower while staying capped below its 200-day moving average.
- DoorDash (Ticker: DASH): The rally was heavily rejected at its 200-day moving average, subsequently breaking its minor short-term uptrend line.
Precious Metals (ETFs: GLD / SLV / GDX):
- Gold (GLD / $GOLD): The recent pullback returned GLD to its “third & final price target zone,” from the recent swing short trade entered around the all-time highs back in January, which continues to acts as strong price support rather than a technical breakdown. Near-to-intermediate outlook favors a counter-trend bounce coming off a divergent low on the 60-minute and daily charts.
- Silver (SLV): Pulled back slightly past its target zone, overshooting into a solid technical buy zone. Noted as an excellent mean-reversion asset that will track gold’s trajectory.
- Gold Miners (GDX): Closed the short positions, which were also entered almost perfectly off the all-time highs earlier this year, as miners hit the “T2” price target & support level with positive divergence. Falling crude oil prices (~$74/barrel) are noted as a net tailwind, lowering input costs. A scaling-in buy plan down to but not below $67 is maintained. Individual miners showing positive divergence or support testing include NEM, AEM, WPM, FNV, GOLD, KGC, PAAS, AGI, HL, CDE, and IAG.
F5, Inc. (Ticker: FFIV): Formed a bearish rising wedge pattern. A fresh sell signal will trigger on a decisive drop beneath the lower trendline of the current wedge.
Natural Gas Futures (Ticker: /NG / ETF: UNG): In response to winter positioning questions, Phinney explicitly recommends trading and charting the current, most liquid contract month rather than guessing forward months due to variables like contango, backwardation, and geopolitics. The recent UNG long trade hit the first price target zone around $12 initially back in May & has been capped by that resistance level since, with another buy signal to come if & when that level is clearly taken out.

5. Trade Ideas Milestone Recap

The following setups achieved one or more official price targets or closed this week:

QQQ / /NQ (Short Triggered):
- Trigger Date: July 8, 2026
- Development: A pre-market breakdown beneath the key $705 support level on QQQ (and 26,260 on /NQ) triggered a new active swing short entry/sell signal. That pre-market break below the $705 support proved to be a brief whipsaw with QQQ closing the week on the aforementioned/highlighted $725.60ish resistance, around the middle of the 2-month sideways trading range with QQQ still in a near-term downtrend (lower lows & lower highs) since the June 22nd divergence high on the 60-minute time frame.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (Ticker: KMB) — Long Trade Closed:
- Milestone: Hit its final upside price target (T3).
- Profit: 22% Profit (inclusive of $2.56 in dividends paid since the initial January 6th entry).
- Outlook: A high-level bearish PPO crossover is actively printing out of overbought territory. Phinney suggests waiting for a deeper pullback toward the 200-day moving average (T1 support) before looking to re-enter.
Rare Earth Metals ETF (Ticker: REMX) — Short Trade Closed:
- Milestone: Hit its second & final official profit target (T2).
- Profit: 20% Profit.
- Outlook: Moved formally to the Completed Trades archive. While Phinney notes a preference that it may ultimately fall to a potential third target before a lasting reversal, it was archived to maintain premium tracking data integrity.
Kraft Heinz Co. (Ticker: KHC) — Long Trade Milestone:
- Milestone: Hit its third profit target (T3).
- Profit: 17% Profit (inclusive of the $0.40 dividend paid out on June 26th).
Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (Ticker: RYAN) — Long Trade Closed:
- Milestone: Hit its second and final official price target (T2) on Thursday, July 9th.
- Profit: 35% Profit.
Grab Holdings Ltd (Ticker: GRAB) — Long Trade Milestone:
- Milestone: Hit its second price target (T2) on Thursday, July 9th.
- Profit: ~17% Profit. Traders holding out for the final target (T3) are advised to raise stops.

As mentioned on Friday, after keeping new positions & trade ideas light for the last couple of weeks due to the low-volume, choppy, sideways, & whipsaw-plagued pre- and post-Independence Day market, I plan to turn my focus back to scouting for new trade ideas or potential developments to monitor going forward. Here are some of the key items to watch this week, along with an explanation of why global long-term debt yields are critical to monitor right now.

Market Summary: What to Watch This Week

1. Crucial Macro Data & Central Bank Testimony

June CPI Inflation Data (Tuesday): A major focus for the market, especially after the consumer price index jumped to 4.2% year-over-year in May (up from 3.8% in April). Investors are looking to see if inflation pressures are truly abating or if factors like volatile fuel prices will keep the cost of living high.
Fed Chair Testimony (Tuesday & Wednesday): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress. Markets will hang on his every word regarding the trajectory of interest rates, the Fed’s view on inflation risks following recent geopolitical shifts, and how new Fed data-collection task forces might impact future policy.
Consumer Sentiment (Friday): The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will offer a pulse check on the American consumer. After hitting historic lows in May due to inflation and job market worries, investors want to see if June’s slight rebound carries over.

2. Heavyweight Earnings Reports

The Big Banks (Tuesday–Thursday): Q2 earnings season kicks off in earnest with Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), on Tuesday, before the market opens (BMO) followed by Morgan Stanley (MS) & U.S. Bancorp (USB) on Thursday, BMO. Watch for executives’ commentary on the health of the U.S. consumer, stagflation risks, commercial loan growth, and whether AI enthusiasm is successfully driving capital markets activity.
Tech & AI Momentum (Thursday): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) reports Q2 results. As the world’s largest contract chipmaker, its numbers and guidance will serve as a massive health check for the broader global AI trade. Netflix (NFLX) also reports, with investors watching to see if its softened forecast and leadership transitions continue to weigh on the stock.
Corporate Health & Consumer Trends (Wednesday–Thursday): United Airlines (UAL), UnitedHealth Group (UHC): Medicare Advantage impacts, and GE Aerospace (GE): aerospace demand vs. geopolitical hurdles) will provide a clear look into corporate margins.

The Importance of Watching Global Long-Term Debt Yields

While equity earnings dominate headlines, long-term government bond yields—like the US 10- & 30-year Treasuries, UK Gilts, and Japan’s 10- to 40-year JGBs—act as the actual bedrock of the global financial system. Watching them this week is crucial for several reasons:

The “Risk-Free” Benchmark for Stocks

Long-term yields represent the benchmark return investors can get with virtually zero risk. When US 10-year or 30-year Treasury yields rise, it places downward pressure on stock valuations (especially high-growth tech and AI stocks). If investors can lock in high, safe yields from government bonds, they become less willing to pay premium prices for risky equities.

Gauging Inflation and Monetary Policy Expectations

Long-term bonds are highly sensitive to inflation. Because inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond’s fixed future payments, a hot CPI print this Tuesday will likely cause investors to demand higher yields, driving bond prices down. Conversely, tracking UK Gilts and Japan’s ultra-long JGBs (up to 40 years) reveals how global investors view long-term inflation and economic growth outside the U.S.

The Global Cost of Capital

Government bond yields dictate the interest rates for everything else—mortgages, corporate debt, and municipal loans. If UK Gilts or US Treasuries spike, borrowing costs for corporations rise instantly, threatening profit margins and slowing down mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs (the very things Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executives are concerned about).

Sovereign Pressure Points: The Case of Japan (JGBs)

Japan’s long-term bonds (10- to 40-year JGBs) are particularly critical to watch because the Bank of Japan has historically maintained ultra-low interest rates. If Japanese long-term yields rise significantly, it can trigger a repatriation of capital. Japanese institutional investors hold trillions of dollars in US Treasuries and global debt; if they can suddenly get decent yields at home, they may sell global assets to bring money back to Japan, inadvertently driving US and European yields even higher.

The post RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-12-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-2-26

rsotc — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:10:33 +0000

As the US stock market will be closed tomoorow in observance of the Independence Day holiday (which falls on Saturday), here is the AI-generated weekly recap which I plan to continue going forward.

Please note: Due to the fact that I posted a similar recap covering the analysis & trade ideas covered over the previous two weeks on Monday, many of the items in that post were included in this weekly summary (which parsed all posts this week).

Here is a comprehensive summary of the technical analysis, trade ideas, market commentary, and milestones for the week starting Monday, June 29, 2026, based on the provided data from Right Side Of The Chart.

1. Executive Market Commentary & Macro Context

Abbreviated Holiday Trading Conditions: Due to the July 4th holiday week, trading volumes are significantly lower. This reduction in liquidity increases the frequency of “whipsaws”—false breakouts, failed breakdowns, and stop-loss raids. Trading activity is intentionally kept light, and technical breaks are viewed with a high degree of skepticism [[01:00:01],].
Broad Market Consolidation: The major stock indices—particularly the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remain locked in a tight, choppy sideways trading range that has persisted for nearly two months [[01:00:01],].
Market Fragility Indicators: The tech-heavy QQQ continues to display negative price momentum divergence via the RSI and PPO indicators, pointing to a structurally fading uptrend [[01:00:01]]. Furthermore, a dense cluster of readings from a custom variation of the Hindenburg Omen indicator has kept the market on an active “Market Crash Watch” [[01:02:54]].
The Bond Catalyst: The 30-Year Treasury Yield Index ($TYX) is actively testing a multi-decade structural triple top near 5.0%. A clean, sustained breakout above this level is highlighted as a major catalyst that could severely pressure broader equities [[01:00:01]].
Precious Metals Outlook: Following a severe vertical “buying climax” and subsequent ~30% drops from their parabolic peaks earlier in the year, gold, silver, and gold mining stocks have systematically retraced to major multi-reaction trendline support zones coupled with prominent bullish positive divergences, setting up highly objective technical bounce opportunities [[01:00:01]].

2. Active Trade Ideas & New Trade Setups

Long Setups & Signals Triggered

Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS): Following a recent downtrend line breakout, FIS cleared its objective Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BOD) resistance floor at $41.37, triggering a formal next buy signal and serving as an objective long entry or add-on point [[01:02:54],].
Alibaba Group (BABA): Cleared a long-term structural downtrend line on July 1st, providing a technically objective long entry with a well-defined protective stop placed right beneath the broken trendline [[01:00:01]].
Trupanion Inc. (TRUP): Triggered a long entry setup on a confirmed breakout above intersecting horizontal price and downtrend line resistance. Due to the proximity of the falling 200-day moving average, a near-term resistance level (R2) has been mapped at $24.46 for potential quick profit-taking [[01:00:01]].
Crude Oil Futures (/CL / USO): Tracing a clean bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120-minute chart with clear positive momentum divergence. It offers an objective long entry at $69.54 support or upon a definitive wedge breakout, targeting a technical mean-reversion bounce of up to 20% [[01:00:01]].
AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV): Following a falling wedge breakout and subsequent back-test of support at its 200-day moving average, the stock rallied impulsively higher (+16% on June 30th) from its objective technical support floor [[01:05:27]].
Gold (GLD / Futures: /GC) & Silver (SLV / Futures: /SI): * Gold dropped roughly 30% from its buying climax to land precisely on dual structural boundaries (a long-term linear uptrend line and the bottom of a major T3 support target zone). Paired with positive divergence, it forms an objective long scaling zone [[01:00:01]].
- Silver completed a 40% crash from its peak to hit its primary downside targets. It is now exhibiting short-term falling wedge breakouts and positive divergence, signaling a near-to-intermediate-term counter-trend bounce. Futures traders are advised to scale down leverage using micro (/SIC) or mini (/QI) contracts if the main /SI contract multiplier is too large for their account sizes [[01:00:01]].
Individual Gold Miners (GDX Components): Bullish bounce setups feature high sector-wide correlations, described as “birds of a feather” [[01:00:01]]:
- Newmont Corporation (NEM): The sector’s “800-pound gorilla” has pulled back right to a clean, multi-reaction uptrend line off its macro lows, showing bullish positive divergence [[01:00:01]].
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): While breaking its macro uptrend line, it has stabilized on a rigid support shelf at $150.47 dating back to late 2025, offering a bounce opportunity [[01:00:01]].
- Barrick Gold (GOLD): Exhibits distinct positive divergence at its $36 support floor, targeting a ~20% rally up to $43.50 [[01:00:01]].
- Kinross Gold (KGC): Facing key support at $22 with positive divergence signaling a potential 25% technical kickback rally/back-test [[01:00:01]].
- Royal Gold (RGLD): Highlighted as an exceptionally clean technical layout resting on a well-defined uptrend line dating to early 2024 [[01:00:01]].
- Coeur Mining (CDE): Developing positive divergence within a tight channel; objective long entry targeted at $15.10 [[01:00:01]].
- Equinox Gold (EQX): Reversing off a major historical support level from 2021 ($9.34), targeting a 27% bounce to $11.77 [[01:00:01]].
- Osisko Gold Royalties (OR): Resting actively on support with positive divergence, targeting a 15% to 16% trendline back-test [[01:00:01]].

Short Setups & Bearish Rotations

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Trapped in a sideways trading range between $725.64 resistance and $705.19 support [[01:00:01]]. An alternative scenario gap backfill occurred on June 30th when the index filled its June 23/24 gap resistance, offering an objective short entry or add-on point [[01:05:27]]. A decisive 60-minute candlestick close below $705.19 remains required to trigger the next heavy leg down [[01:00:01],].
Semiconductor Sector (SOXX / SMH / XSD): The sector finalized massive bearish engulfing candlesticks on the weekly chart at the end of June, confirming a group-wide technical exhaustion top. This offers an objective structural swing short entry point with stops placed above last week’s weekly candlestick highs [[01:00:01],].
Micron Technology (MU): Triggered a clean technical sell signal by breaking below its dynamic uptrend line off the March lows. It is facing a projected mean-reversion drop of 25% to 50% down toward its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Undergoing a technical breakdown and back-test pattern. A break below key support at $501 opens a short target down to its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].
Broadcom (AVGO): Testing a structural triple-confluence zone (horizontal support at $359.50, the 200-day EMA, and a PPO trend boundary). A failure to hold this level opens up a deep structural short target [[01:00:01]].
Intel (INTC): Has broken below its tight consolidation range and near-term trendline, warning of an impending technical drop straight toward the bottom of its multi-year range [[01:00:01]].
KLA Corp (KLAC) & Lam Research (LRCX): Equipment manufacturers are acting as the sector’s “canaries in the coal mine.” KLAC faces a critical technical breakdown line at $235 [[01:00:01]].
ASML Holding (ASML): Flagged on a structural back-test sell signal beneath its primary broken uptrend line [[01:00:01]].
MicroStrategy (MSTR / Leverage: MSTZ): Tracing a potential bearish continuation flag pattern while tied to spot Bitcoin. A break below the flag increases the odds of deeper price targets (T2–T4) being achieved. For short positioning, the 2x Inverse ETF (MSTZ) is utilized, though traders are cautioned about volatility decay during sideways consolidation phases [[01:00:01]].
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Rallying into severe technical resistance at its 200-day exponential moving average while showing a notable negative divergence. Long entries require waiting for a clean close above the 200-day line; otherwise, it remains a short candidate [[01:00:01]].

3. Trade Milestones (Profit Targets Hit & Closed)

Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): The long swing trade + growth & income trade hit its second profit target (T2), locking in a ~15% profit (inclusive of the $0.40 dividend paid on June 26th) [[01:00:01],].
Etsy Inc. (ETSY): Hit its second price target (T2) on its daily chart for a massive 42% profit following a prolonged accumulation and back-test phase [[01:00:01]].
Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN): Hit the bottom of its first technical price target zone (T1 zone) for a 21% profit [[01:00:01]].
General Mills (GIS): Broke out cleanly from a falling wedge and successfully hit its first upside price target (T1) while paying an attractive 11% dividend yield [[01:00:01]].
Grab Holdings Ltd (GRAB): The active long swing trade hit its first profit target (T1 at the primary downtrend line) for a 5% profit [[01:01:55]].
Global Shipping ETF (BOAT): The active short swing trade hit both its first and second profit targets (T1 & T2) shortly after the market open on June 29th, locking in a 10% profit [[01:13:46]].
Progressive Corp (PGR): Reached a revised final profit target (T1) for a 5% profit. Due to overhead 200-day moving average resistance, all additional targets (T2–T3) were officially canceled, and the trade was archived [[01:00:01],].
Hormel Foods Corp (HRL): The long swing trade successfully hit its third and final price target (T3) for a 27% profit and has been moved to the completed archives [[01:00:01],].
Snowline Gold Corp. (SNWGF): Completed a highly successful short-to-long sequence [[01:00:01]]:
1. The short swing trade hit the top of its T2 price target zone for a 25% profit (following a prior short that pocketed 23%).
2. Because dual price and uptrend line support signaled a reversal, the short was covered and reversed into a long position, which has already logged a 22% gain upon hitting its first long target (T1) [[01:00:01],].
CME Group (CME) & Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): Long tactical positions successfully hit their reflexive counter-trend bounce targets during the week and were closed out to protect capital [[01:00:01]].

Associated Web/Video References

Wishing everyone a happy & safe weekend!

–rp

The post RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-2-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

RSOTC Weekly Recap June 15-26, 2026

rsotc — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 14:48:06 +0000

I’m still trying to hammer out a fluid & streamlined process to provide weekly AI-generated summaries of the analysis & trade ideas covered on RSOTC each week. This remains a work in progress & should get better over time (ultimately posted at the end of each week). Here’s a rough summary of the analysis & trade ideas covered over the past two weeks (Monday, June 15 through Friday, June 26th, 2026, with both completed trades as well as potential setups going forward:

Below is the exhaustive, systematic breakdown of the analysis, setups, and milestones for all 100+ securities and indicators tracked during that high-velocity two-week period.

1. Macro Indexes, Volatility, and Internal Metrics

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) & /NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Significant short swing positions remain active. QQQ established a clear technical divergent high resembling topping structures from late 2021 and 2025. It triggered a primary sell signal upon snapping its major March 30th uptrend line. After hitting Target 1 (T1) at the June 9th pivot low, it staged a counter-trend “dead cat bounce” to backfill early June gap resistance up to the 742.00 level. Multiple pushes into $725.64 resistance offered objective short add-on or re-entry zones. A decisive 60-minute candlestick close below the checked $705.19–$715 support range opens the floodgates to targets T2 through T4, down to $664.87.
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) & /ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures): Broke down slightly ahead of the tech sector. SPY has been bouncing tightly between structural gap support and resistance levels just below its early June all-time high (ATH). Rejection at key overhead gap resistance keeps short positions historically attractive. Snapping last Wednesday’s reaction low will trigger a formal secondary sell signal synchronized with tech.
SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF): A massive focal point for structural market topping. Formed an explicit bearish rising wedge on the daily/60-minute charts, breaking down violently with a severe downward gap. On the macro weekly timeframe, it features a near-vertical, parabolic blow-off structure paired with massive volume surges. Closing the final week of June below its primary uptrend line off the March 30th low confirms a severe weekly bearish engulfing candlestick. High-conviction outright short positions or tactical inverse leverage options remain active as a macro-level topping process solidifies.
XSD (SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF): Evaluated to contrast the cap-weighted distortion of SOXX. The more equal-weighted XSD confirmed that momentum was accelerating out of a structural base pattern directly into multi-year historical resistance. It printed a synchronized weekly bearish engulfing candle, confirming a group-wide sector exhaustion.
$VIX / VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Broke out cleanly from a multi-month bullish falling wedge pattern, surging over 53% off its recent technical floor to hit its initial upside target of 23.19. Charting history shows that major runs in the VIX align perfectly with equity bear markets, but the host stresses that the VIX will not truly “scream” until & unless the financial sector rolls over alongside technology.
#BREADTH / McClellan Oscillator / New High-Low Ratios: Tracked via custom breadth internal metrics. Extreme, persistent negative divergences have expanded over the last two years as market gains were heavily carried by the “MAG-8” big tech heavyweights. Market leadership narrowed exclusively to the semiconductor subsector before fracturing.
Custom “Hindenburg” Indicator: Registered a rarely seen dense cluster of consecutive daily sell and crash signals over a two-week window. This specific lack of broad underlying participation serves as a yellow flag that has often preceded severe multi-week market corrections.
$SENTIMENT / $CPCE (Equity Put/Call Ratio): Reflects absolute market complacency. The total absence of a fear-driven put-buying spike shows that standard structural protection is absent, leaving equity indexes structurally vulnerable to a sudden rush for the exits.
$USD / DXY (US Dollar Index): Completed a textbook, multi-month long-term bottoming pattern. It successfully sliced through strong horizontal overhead resistance at 105 to hit its projected target zone near 101.85. The printing of a near-term negative divergence indicates a small US Dollar pullback is likely before its broader upward trajectory resumes.

2. Semiconductors & Equipment Heavyweights

NVDA (NVIDIA): The ultimate heavyweight sector anchor. Analyzed via a macro long-term weekly chart spanning decades. Nvidia has put in three prior monumental weekly divergent highs in its corporate history—each resulting in devastating corrections ranging from 56% to 90%. Price has stalled out completely over the last two weeks, forming an intermediate consolidation box down roughly 16% off its highs. It is rapidly morphing into “dead money” at near-term support. Massive structural threats loom from competing low-cost AI architectures (e.g., DeepSeek), and a failure to hold this box floor or its 200-day moving average will catalyze a secular unwind.
AVGO (Broadcom): Exhibits a definitive candlestick reversal on the weekly timeframe. Marked by a massive, high-volume buying climax paired with rigid negative divergence. Shares have rapidly broken down 25% off their all-time highs, signaling institutional distribution.
ASML: Triggered a clean, high-probability technical breakdown directly beneath its primary uptrend line, flashing an official macro-level technical sell signal for global chip manufacturing equipment.
INTC (Intel): Its recent recovery breakout failed abruptly, carving out a sharp daily trading range and printing a clear divergent high. Short setups are highly objective, targeting a potential 23% drop to $99.60, a 37% drop to $80.40, or a maximum 45% slide to fill its open gap and test its 200-day simple moving average.
AMD: Exhibiting structural cracks directly below its primary short-term trendline. If the macro semiconductor rollover deepens, next structural support targets are mapped wide open down near $400 and $361.
NXPI (NXP Semiconductors): Carving out a large, highly visible potential head-and-shoulders topping pattern near local highs. The formal measured target of this pattern lines up precisely with a logical retest of its 200-day moving average.
AMAT (Applied Materials) & LRCX (Lam Research): Both foundational chip-equipment makers are flagged in identical, highly unstable “parabolic blow-off top” patterns. Near-vertical acceleration curves like these typically resolve in exceptionally aggressive, swift vertical unwinds.
KLAC (KLA Corporation): Synchronized with AMAT and LRCX. Heavily front-run by retail momentum, its vertical trendline has broken down on intense institutional fading volume, cementing a cyclical macro top.
ARM (Arm Holdings): Tracking a highly precise but dangerously steep ascending trendline. Paired with dramatic multi-indicator negative divergence across the RSI and PPO, it stands as a premium candidate for an aggressive short position upon a confirmed breach of its near-term baseline.
MRVL (Marvell Technology): Displays intense structural vulnerability near its local peaks. Clear, multi-week negative divergence is firmly established across both the RSI and PPO indicators on heavy distribution volume.
QCOM (Qualcomm): Unlike peers still lingering near local consolidation highs, Qualcomm has officially broken rank and begun its rolling breakdown, slicing cleanly through its short-term daily technical support baselines.
MU (Micron Technology): Following a massive pre-market blowout quarterly earnings report, it experienced an intense, retail-driven after-hours surge. However, this institutional “bench-warmer” volume was aggressively faded and sold down the moment regular trading hours opened, marking a classic “sell-the-news” buying climax.
ADI (Analog Devices) & TXN (Texas Instruments): Both industrial-analog components rolled over at overhead horizontal resistance, underperforming the broader index and confirming that capital is leaving the tech sector entirely.
SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Short 3X): Highlighted as a tactical inverse instrument. The host notes that while outright shorting equity shares remains preferred, utilizing SOXS for short-duration trades is optimal for capturing the rapid institutional rush for the exits, assuming that one has a high degree of confidence in a mostly unidirectional (down) trend in SOXX.

3. Financials, Private Credit, & Housing

XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund): The financial index broke out of a multi-week symmetrical triangle to print a marginal multi-year high before stalling at overhead resistance near $54.50. The sector is sitting at highly overbought levels, and a macro rollover here is required to fuel a multi-week secular surge in the VIX.
$BKX / KBW Bank Index: Large-cap commercial banking structures are flashing massive, multi-month negative technical divergences while wedging upward on declining momentum.
IAT (iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF) & KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF): Mirroring the large-cap BKX divergence pattern. Both regional banking metrics are wedging tightly into overhead historical resistance floors; a definitive technical break below near-term support is required to trigger macro sell signals.
IAI (iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF): Achieved an official milestone during the week of June 16th, successfully hitting both specified swing trade price targets (T1 & T2) before reversing.
PGR (Progressive Corp): Reached an active milestone. After consolidating off clear structural support, the swing trade formally hit its revised T1 price target on June 25th for a 5% profit. Due to overhead 200-day moving average resistance, additional targets T2 and T3 were officially canceled, and the trade was archived.
IAK (iShares U.S. Insurance ETF): Officially labeled a “dead money” sector. Long-term upside parameters have been exhausted due to severe overhead structural resistance and deteriorating charts across primary components.
TRV (The Travelers Companies) & CB (Chubb Limited): Primary heavyweights driving the insurance sector markdown. Both corporate charts have broken below their respective 50-day moving averages on accelerating distribution volume.
PSP (Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF): Flashing severe intermediate structural warnings. Illiquid asset valuations are facing a macro-level re-pricing cycle as underlying capital costs remain elevated.
BIZD (VanEck Business Development Company ETF): Serving as a prime indicator of “shadow market” stress. Private credit leverage and BDC structures are hitting their lowest relative levels since the 2020 COVID-19 crash. The host issues a severe warning regarding systemic “yield traps,” anticipating a vicious loop of capital redemptions forcing BDCs to mark down “fantasy” accounting metrics to real market re-pricing standards as underlying loans are liquidated.
ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF): An official trade closure. The long swing trade hit its final specified price target (T5) on June 18th for a 15% profit. With rigid daily negative divergences actively printing at the target line, full profits were booked, and the trade was archived.
LAND (Gladstone Land Corp): Underperformed synchronized real estate benchmarks, breaking down below its intermediate simple moving averages on ascending volume.
RKT (Rocket Companies), PFSI (PennyMac Financial), & UWMC (UWM Holdings): Specialty mortgage finance candidates. Prior swing short trades on these names successfully captured very large profits. They are currently being monitored through a bullish falling wedge pattern, watching for a final washout to potentially initiate long reversal positions if long-term Treasury yields decline.
V (Visa) & MA (Mastercard): Actively tracing a proxy chart for a weakening domestic consumer. Both credit service giants face intense technical resistance, having broken cleanly beneath their macro 200-day simple moving averages before failing their respective structural backtests.

4. Gold, Precious Metals, & Commodities

SNWGF (Snowline Gold Corp) – Short: A highly successful repeat swing short. The trade hit the top of its T2 price target zone on June 24th for a 25% profit, following a matching short trade that generated a 23% profit months prior. Because dual price and primary uptrend line support suggest a tradable bounce, targets T3 and T4 were removed to lock in gains. Reversal bounce targets are mapped at structural arrow breaks for long scaling.
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) – Short: Officially completed its corrective swing down leg, hitting the exact top of its T3 target zone (third and final official price support target). Hitting this structural floor alongside daily positive technical divergence triggered an objective signal to fully cover short positions and scale into long starter positions.
SLV (iShares Silver Trust) – Short: Successfully hit its final T3 price target/primary uptrend line support floor on the daily chart. It offered a highly objective zone to fully book short gains and initiate long exposure.
GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) – Short: Fully synchronized with bullion, the short swing trade hit its projected T2 support target, landing squarely within a macro structural “buy zone” extending down to $67.
/CL & USO (Crude Oil Futures / United States Oil Fund): Double-milestone activity. The long-standing short trade entered on May 20th hit its final specified price target at $75.59 on June 16th for a 25% profit and was archived. Subsequently, on June 24th, a brand new long swing trade setup was issued at $69.54 support, driven by a crisp 120-minute bullish falling wedge pattern and clear positive divergence. Initiating starter long positions here offers an exceptional risk-to-reward ratio targeting a macro 20% upside commodity bounce.

5. Consumer Staples & Defensive Equities

HRL (Hormel Foods): Premium trade completion. Highlighted originally as a top defensive pick in April, the long swing trade hit its third and final price target (T3) on June 25th for a 27% profit and was moved to the completed archives.
CPB (Campbell Soup Company): Active milestone. The long trade originally hit its T1 target for a quick 14% profit. Following a standard technical counter-trend reaction, the stock pulled back directly to its $20.72 horizontal support floor, offering a highly objective re-entry or add-on long entry zone.
KHC (Kraft Heinz Company): Progressing steadily out of a long-term bear market accumulation cycle. It successfully achieved its initial upside targets and remains on track toward its core target zone.
LFVN (LifeVantage Corp): An extraordinary momentum achievement. The stock completely fulfilled its ultimate structural profit target, netting a massive 145% gain before entering a healthy consolidation phase.
CAG (Conagra Brands) & LW (Lamb Weston Holdings): Both institutional food suppliers are exhibiting quiet, steady, high-probability upward accumulation drift as capital systematically rotates out of tech into safe dividend-paying consumer structures.
WMT (Walmart), COST (Costco), & PG (Procter & Gamble): Tracked through the lens of XLP (Consumer Staples ETF) sector rotation. While XLP is testing its primary moving averages, these specific mega-cap staples are displaying deteriorating technical postures. Walmart is bumping against an overextended baseline, Costco is undergoing a mandatory corrective pullback within its ascending channel, and Procter & Gamble is attempting to crack an intermediate descending trendline.
MDLZ (Mondelez International): Undergoing a clean, low-risk corrective sequence that provides exceptionally precise technical boundaries for long-side reversal positioning.
BGS (B&G Foods), BRBR (BellRing Brands), BYND (Beyond Meat), & DAR (Darling Ingredients): Monitored as secondary tier-2 packaged food and food-processing metrics to evaluate industry-wide short-squeeze potential.
HAIN (The Hain Celestial Group), JJSF (J&J Snack Foods), PPC (Pilgrim’s Pride), & SJM (The J.M. Smucker Company): Monitored for institutional defensive rotation patterns. J.M. Smucker famously triggered a sharp short-squeeze rally after failing to hold an initial low breakdown, resulting in an excellent technical “bear trap” reversal.
RKDA (Arcadia Biosciences): Achieved an intense tactical milestone, skyrocketing through targets T1, T2, and T3 to generate a rapid 70% profit return before retracing completely back to its original trendline breakout entry baseline.
USNA (USANA Health Sciences): Evaluated alongside small-cap defensive health components, consolidating tightly above long-term horizontal base support.

6. Crypto, Forex, & Alternative Assets

$BTC / BTC (Bitcoin) & IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): Bitcoin is hanging onto key long-term daily macro support thresholds around $58,628, attempting to sustain a fragile structural bullish divergence. The host expresses deep structural skepticism, viewing Bitcoin as a pure leveraged momentum trade lacking intrinsic core value. With spot ETFs and futures heavily tying crypto to traditional Wall Street margin algorithms, a breakdown of this support floor will likely trigger massive retail margin liquidation.
MSTR (MicroStrategy): Achieved an active milestone. The active short swing trade hit its first technical downside target (T1) on June 24th for a 25% to 40% profit across multiple specified entry levels. While short-term positive chart divergence introduces near-term rebound risk, the core short thesis projects a multi-week structural unwind toward target T4 if spot Bitcoin breaks support.
SPCX (SpaceX IPO / Destination XL Group proxy context): Highlighted as an absolute “jump the shark” retail bubble milestone. Driven exclusively by retail FOMO and emotional after-hours bidding rather than baseline valuation metrics, the asset aggressively erased 100% of its post-IPO momentum gains.

7. Fixed Income, Healthcare, & Individual Setups

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) & IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF): Tracing a significant bearish divergence pattern against key overhead horizontal resistance. This signals a potential drop in bond prices, which directly indicates that long-term Treasury yields are positioned to surge higher from a longer-term perspective.
$TYX (30-Year Treasury Yield Index) & $TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield Index): Yield metrics are carving out a structural triple-top formation. A technical breakout above this threshold confirms that the “bond vigilantes” are firmly in control of the macro rate cycle.
AMZN (Amazon) – Long Entry Setup: Highlighted as a long trade idea for either a reflexive, bounce trade off the pullback to its 200-day moving average (my preference) or a position long for those who are longer-term bullish on the stock market & expect new highs & beyond in the coming months+. The stock has pulled back directly into a high-confluence triple support zone consisting of its 200-day simple moving average, 200-day exponential moving average, and local horizontal support. This offers a highly attractive 5:1 risk-to-reward ratio using a tight protective stop tucked just beneath the 200-day line.
NVO (Novo Nordisk) – Long Entry Setup: After successfully milking five consecutive downside price targets on its prior downleg, Novo Nordisk printed a distinct divergent low. It is actively attempting to clear horizontal resistance and its 200-day moving average near $47.40 to trigger a breakout & objective long entry or add-on to an existing long-term position.
AVAV (AeroVironment) – Long Entry Setup: The defense contractor completed a clean bullish falling wedge breakout and returned to test major horizontal support near its 200-day moving average, offering a highly objective long entry for a mean reversion bounce.
MRNA (Moderna) – Short Entry Setup: After breaking down through macro structural support, Moderna staged a kickback rally directly into broken support from underneath near $63. This offers an exceptionally objective short entry point targeting a drop back down to $45.50.
MOH (Molina Healthcare) & HUM (Humana) – Short Setups: Managed healthcare plans are presenting premium shorting configurations via large bearish rising wedges paired with stark negative divergence. Humana is entering extreme overhead structural resistance while printing maximum overbought readings on its daily RSI.
CNC (Centene Corp) – Short Trade: Sliced cleanly beneath its bearish rising wedge and completed a minor technical kickback rally to test the broken baseline from below, offering a highly objective short entry targeting a move down to $53.17.
CVS (CVS Health) & ELV (Elevance Health): Monitored alongside Centene and Molina, confirming sector-wide structural distributions across major managed healthcare configurations.
UNH (UnitedHealth Group): The ultimate managed care anchor is under intense institutional selling pressure, testing its 50-day simple moving average and acting as a macro weight on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
AAPL (Apple), AMZN (Amazon), GOOGL (Alphabet), META (Meta Platforms), MSFT (Microsoft), & TSLA (Tesla): Mega-cap retail favorites are showing substantial structural technical damage. Microsoft has slipped below its 200-day simple moving average and failed its technical backtest, while the group as a whole is failing to support the collapsing NASDAQ breadth.
SSTK (Shutterstock) & TGT (Target Corp): Target staged a minor counter-trend rally but is now printing severe daily negative technical divergence precisely at a rigid $138 horizontal resistance line.
F (Ford Motor Company): Underperforming the consumer discretionary index, breaking key short-term moving average baselines on expanding distribution volume.

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