Video Summary: Swing Trade Ideas (July 21, 2026)

In this market update, Randy Phinney from Right Side of the Chart provides technical analysis and trade updates across major stock indexes, sectors, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, foreign exchange, and fixed income markets.

Covered Securities & Market Topics

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF & Crypto – IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) & Spot Bitcoin ($BTC)

• Timestamp: [01:27]

• Summary: Spot Bitcoin ($BTC) recently reached a long-term downside target around $58,628–$58,630 with positive divergence, breaking above a daily falling wedge. While the short-term trend is bullish, the intermediate-term trend remains bearish. Bitcoin is currently testing 60-minute resistance with building negative divergence.

• Objective Entries & Targets:

  • Resistance / Next Level: ~$40.13 on IBIT.

  • Trade Setup: Counter-trend rally presents an aggressive short entry with tight stops above current resistance. A break below the near-term uptrend line would trigger a short-term sell signal.

2. MicroStrategy – MSTR (and MSTZ)

• Timestamp: [02:11] | [09:41]

• Summary: MSTR serves as the primary proxy short trade for Bitcoin. Despite recent short-covering rallies and bullish daily divergence, MSTR is back-testing its major reaction low / resistance from February. The intermediate/long-term technical outlook remains bearish.

• Objective Entries & Targets:

  • Objective Entry: Aggressive short entry or position add-on at current back-test resistance with tight stops above key resistance (or IBIT ~$40.13).

  • Price Targets: Maintained lower downside targets (T1 already hit, T2, T3, & T4 remaining) upon a break below recent lows.

  • Note: Advises avoiding MSTZ (-2x MSTR ETF) during choppy consolidation.

3. Nasdaq 100 / Tech – QQQ ($NDX or /NQ)

• Timestamp: [16:27] | [48:38]

• Summary: Active short trade. QQQ broke below a daily symmetrical triangle and is back-testing the underside of the triangle pattern along with 50-day EMA resistance. It currently sits ~2.76% above its T1 support zone.

• Objective Entries & Targets:

  • Objective Entry: Short entry on the back-test of the broken triangle / 50-day EMA.

  • Targets & Stop Loss: T1 support level defines major support; a breakdown below T1 triggers the next sell signal toward T2–T4 (up to ~15% downside potential on the 60-minute chart from the initial short entry). Recommended tight stop above the triangle or a ~5% stop loss for a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

4. Gold Miners ETF – GDX

• Timestamp: [20:21]

• Summary: Active long trade. GDX is consolidating within a 60-minute falling wedge pattern and holding firm as spot gold maintains key support.

• Objective Entries & Targets: Objective scale-in/hard long entry on wedge consolidation/pullbacks. 60-minute upside targets remain active.

5. Gold & Gold Futures – GLD (ETF) & /GC

• Timestamp: [21:21] | [22:29]

• Summary: Active long / bounce trade following a parabolic blow-off top crash. GLD is holding its final downside target zone (~$361) with building positive divergence across 120-minute and daily charts.

• Objective Entries & Targets:

  • Objective Entry: High-conviction long at key support (~$361 on GLD).

  • Price Targets: Expecting an approximate 24% bear market rally on Gold Futures (/GC) across three near-term targets.

  • Stop Loss: Suggested stop on a clean daily or weekly close below the ~$361 support zone to avoid intra-day stop raids.

6. Foreign Exchange – US Dollar Index ($DXY), EUR/USD, & USD/JPY

• Timestamp: [26:09]

• Summary: The US Dollar Index ($DXY) is testing an uptrend line with negative divergence. EUR/USD (57.6% weight in $DXY) shows a bullish falling wedge with positive divergence, while USD/JPY (13.6% weight) displays a rising wedge with three consecutive negative divergent highs.

• Outlook: Expecting a breakdown in USD/JPY & a breakout in EUR/USD, both of which would cause the $US Dollar to fall, providing a macro tailwind for Gold, Silver, and GDX.

7. Long-Term Treasuries & 30-Year Yield – TLT & $TYX

• Timestamp: [32:36]

• Summary: Watching closely (no open position). 30-Year Treasury Yield ($TYX) is testing multi-year triple top resistance around 5.162%.

• Key Levels & Risk: A sustained breakout above ~5.16% on $TYX would push long-term bond yields to highs not seen since prior to the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis and 2000 Dot-Com Peak, posing a serious macro headwind to equity markets and corporate debt refinancings.

8. 10-Year Treasuries – $TNX & IEF

• Timestamp: [42:58]

• Summary: 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) is near the top of its range, while IEF on the weekly chart is cracking its primary uptrend line off multi-year highs.

9. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds – LQD

• Timestamp: [45:48]

• Summary: LQD displays positive divergence, though its intermediate trend remains bearish with the PPO 9MA signal line below zero.

• Key Levels: Critical resistance/price alert set at $109.74. A breakout above $109.74 indicates lowering corporate borrowing costs, while a breakdown below recent spike lows signals rising corporate credit risk.

10. Financial Sector – XLF

• Timestamp: [52:42]

• Summary: Financials (second largest S&P 500 sector) triggered a sell signal by breaking down from a bearish rising wedge pattern following multi-year weekly negative divergence.

• Objective Entries & Targets:

  • Objective Entry: Short entry on the wedge breakdown.

  • Key Targets: Initial bounce/support target at $54.92. A breakdown below $54.92 triggers the next major sell signal for deeper targets.

11. Volatility Index – $VIX

• Timestamp: [56:17]

• Summary: $VIX continues to construct massive multi-month positive divergence at resistance.

• Trigger Setup: A $VIX downtrend breakout, combined with QQQ breaking T1 support and XLF losing $54.92, will signal a widespread market correction.

All Ticker Symbols Discussed

IBIT, MSTR, MSTZ, GDX, GLD, TLT, IEF, LQD, XLF, QQQ, $BTC, $DXY, $NDX, $SPX, $TNX, $TYX, $VIX, /BTC, /GC, /NQ

 

Here is a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video “Swing Trade Ideas 7-6-26” by Right Side of the Chart, detailing the various topics, sectors, and specific financial securities discussed along with their ticker symbols and timestamps:

Market Summary & Broad Indexes

• Introduction & Overview [00:00]: Randy Phinney provides a mid-session market update on Monday, July 6, 2026. He notes that market volume is lighter around the 4th of July holiday week, which often leads to whipsaws and false breakouts.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (ETF: DIA) [02:43]: Phinney addresses a subscriber request by analyzing the Dow. He criticizes it as an antiquated, price-weighted index where higher-priced stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Caterpillar (CAT) carry disproportionately high weightings compared to larger market-cap companies like NVIDIA (NVDA) or Walmart (WMT). Technically, it displays a bearish rising wedge pattern.

• NASDAQ 100 (ETF: QQQ) [07:06]: Discusses the 60-minute chart, noting that the index has been locked in a sideways “dead money” trading range since May. The next major sell signal is pending a solid breakdown below the $705 support level.

Equities & Sectors Covered

• Equinix, Inc. (EQIX) [09:49]: Reviews a short trade idea brought up by a subscriber. The stock successfully hit its first price target (T1) on Thursday after breaking below a dual-support intersection (an uptrend line and its 50-day moving average).

• Consumer Defensive / Packaged Food Sector [14:17]: Finny remains highly bullish on this sector for long-term/income accounts due to strong dividend yields and rotation into defensive assets if high-flying semiconductor or financial sectors roll over. Securities covered include:

  • J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) [14:17]: Analyzes a question regarding a potential bearish candlestick setup. He dismisses it, noting that the stock is bouncing off a long-term divergent low and remains attractive.

  • Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) [17:22]: Mentions it recently broke above its 200-day moving average, turning old resistance into new support.

  • General Mills, Inc. (GIS) [19:48]: Highlights a pullback to the $35.78 support level following three consecutive days of tagging resistance at T1, describing it as an objective re-entry zone.

  • Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) [22:00]: Notes that this bottom-fishing play already hit its final target and pulled back.

  • Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) [24:07]: Points out that it offers significant upside to final targets and provides a very attractive ~10% dividend yield, making it a “pay-to-wait” scenario.

Cryptocurrency & Leveraged Plays

• Bitcoin (BTC) [24:43]: Bitcoin has been testing a critical support level around $58,628 with positive divergences. While it could experience a bear market rally, Phinney’s preferred primary macro scenario remains lower.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR / referred to as “Strategy”) [28:05]: Phinney characterizes MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin treasury accumulation strategy as highly fragile under a leverage model. He watches for a break of recent lows, stating a deeper drop could lead to a severe margin-driven liquidation model.

• iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) [31:08]: Notes that the spot ETF showed a breakout on Thursday, though MicroStrategy uncharacteristically lagged the move.

Commodities & Precious Metals

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, GDX) [32:30]: Maintains a clear bullish stance on gold mining stocks and silver. He references VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) hitting its initial bounce targets.

• Agricultural Grains [33:00]: Reiterates his long-term bullish view on commodities as a secular asset class entirely uncorrelated to the tech sector.

  • Elements MarketBeta Total Return ETN (WAT) / Spot Wheat [33:00]: Highlights spot wheat recently falling to & reversing off a multi-decade primary uptrend line with positive divergences. He notes that grain commodities have historically been prone to crashing down after experiencing vertical parabolic rises, highlighting some of those past instances, although that is not the case at this time; rather the longer-term outlook remains bullish.

  • Corn & Soybeans [35:56]: Briefly touches upon corn and soybean futures/ETFs as strong asset allocation plays that likely marked the end of their bear markets in 2020.

Fixed Income & Macro Indicators

• • 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) [39:04]: Analyzes the monthly macro chart dating back to the 1970s. Yields are resting near a critical psychological and technical resistance level at 5.15%. A break higher would push long-term yields back to levels not seen since before the 2007 Great Recession, signaling the infancy of a new secular bull market in interest rates.

  • The “401k Indicator” [48:38]: Phinney shares his favorite simplified indicator for long-term investors: tracking the S&P 500 on a monthly chart against its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA). As long as the index closes the month above this line, the macro trend is bullish; a confirmed monthly close below indicates it is time to step aside into cash or go short.

Here is a comprehensive summary of the technical analysis, trade ideas, market commentary, and milestones for the week starting Monday, June 29, 2026, based on the provided data from Right Side Of The Chart.

1. Executive Market Commentary & Macro Context

• Abbreviated Holiday Trading Conditions: Due to the July 4th holiday week, trading volumes are significantly lower. This reduction in liquidity increases the frequency of “whipsaws”—false breakouts, failed breakdowns, and stop-loss raids. Trading activity is intentionally kept light, and technical breaks are viewed with a high degree of skepticism [[01:00:01],].

• Broad Market Consolidation: The major stock indices—particularly the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remain locked in a tight, choppy sideways trading range that has persisted for nearly two months [[01:00:01],].

• Market Fragility Indicators: The tech-heavy QQQ continues to display negative price momentum divergence via the RSI and PPO indicators, pointing to a structurally fading uptrend [[01:00:01]]. Furthermore, a dense cluster of readings from a custom variation of the Hindenburg Omen indicator has kept the market on an active “Market Crash Watch” [[01:02:54]].

• The Bond Catalyst: The 30-Year Treasury Yield Index ($TYX) is actively testing a multi-decade structural triple top near 5.0%. A clean, sustained breakout above this level is highlighted as a major catalyst that could severely pressure broader equities [[01:00:01]].

• Precious Metals Outlook: Following a severe vertical “buying climax” and subsequent ~30% drops from their parabolic peaks earlier in the year, gold, silver, and gold mining stocks have systematically retraced to major multi-reaction trendline support zones coupled with prominent bullish positive divergences, setting up highly objective technical bounce opportunities [[01:00:01]].

2. Active Trade Ideas & New Trade Setups

Long Setups & Signals Triggered

• Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS): Following a recent downtrend line breakout, FIS cleared its objective Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BOD) resistance floor at $41.37, triggering a formal next buy signal and serving as an objective long entry or add-on point [[01:02:54],].

• Alibaba Group (BABA): Cleared a long-term structural downtrend line on July 1st, providing a technically objective long entry with a well-defined protective stop placed right beneath the broken trendline [[01:00:01]].

• Trupanion Inc. (TRUP): Triggered a long entry setup on a confirmed breakout above intersecting horizontal price and downtrend line resistance. Due to the proximity of the falling 200-day moving average, a near-term resistance level (R2) has been mapped at $24.46 for potential quick profit-taking [[01:00:01]].

• Crude Oil Futures (/CL / USO): Tracing a clean bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120-minute chart with clear positive momentum divergence. It offers an objective long entry at $69.54 support or upon a definitive wedge breakout, targeting a technical mean-reversion bounce of up to 20% [[01:00:01]].

• AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV): Following a falling wedge breakout and subsequent back-test of support at its 200-day moving average, the stock rallied impulsively higher (+16% on June 30th) from its objective technical support floor [[01:05:27]].

• Gold (GLD / Futures: /GC) & Silver (SLV / Futures: /SI): * Gold dropped roughly 30% from its buying climax to land precisely on dual structural boundaries (a long-term linear uptrend line and the bottom of a major T3 support target zone). Paired with positive divergence, it forms an objective long scaling zone [[01:00:01]].

  • Silver completed a 40% crash from its peak to hit its primary downside targets. It is now exhibiting short-term falling wedge breakouts and positive divergence, signaling a near-to-intermediate-term counter-trend bounce. Futures traders are advised to scale down leverage using micro (/SIC) or mini (/QI) contracts if the main /SI contract multiplier is too large for their account sizes [[01:00:01]].

• Individual Gold Miners (GDX Components): Bullish bounce setups feature high sector-wide correlations, described as “birds of a feather” [[01:00:01]]:

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM): The sector’s “800-pound gorilla” has pulled back right to a clean, multi-reaction uptrend line off its macro lows, showing bullish positive divergence [[01:00:01]].

  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): While breaking its macro uptrend line, it has stabilized on a rigid support shelf at $150.47 dating back to late 2025, offering a bounce opportunity [[01:00:01]].

  • Barrick Gold (GOLD): Exhibits distinct positive divergence at its $36 support floor, targeting a ~20% rally up to $43.50 [[01:00:01]].

  • Kinross Gold (KGC): Facing key support at $22 with positive divergence signaling a potential 25% technical kickback rally/back-test [[01:00:01]].

  • Royal Gold (RGLD): Highlighted as an exceptionally clean technical layout resting on a well-defined uptrend line dating to early 2024 [[01:00:01]].

  • Coeur Mining (CDE): Developing positive divergence within a tight channel; objective long entry targeted at $15.10 [[01:00:01]].

  • Equinox Gold (EQX): Reversing off a major historical support level from 2021 ($9.34), targeting a 27% bounce to $11.77 [[01:00:01]].

  • Osisko Gold Royalties (OR): Resting actively on support with positive divergence, targeting a 15% to 16% trendline back-test [[01:00:01]].

Short Setups & Bearish Rotations

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Trapped in a sideways trading range between $725.64 resistance and $705.19 support [[01:00:01]]. An alternative scenario gap backfill occurred on June 30th when the index filled its June 23/24 gap resistance, offering an objective short entry or add-on point [[01:05:27]]. A decisive 60-minute candlestick close below $705.19 remains required to trigger the next heavy leg down [[01:00:01],].

• Semiconductor Sector (SOXX / SMH / XSD): The sector finalized massive bearish engulfing candlesticks on the weekly chart at the end of June, confirming a group-wide technical exhaustion top. This offers an objective structural swing short entry point with stops placed above last week’s weekly candlestick highs [[01:00:01],].

• Micron Technology (MU): Triggered a clean technical sell signal by breaking below its dynamic uptrend line off the March lows. It is facing a projected mean-reversion drop of 25% to 50% down toward its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Undergoing a technical breakdown and back-test pattern. A break below key support at $501 opens a short target down to its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].

• Broadcom (AVGO): Testing a structural triple-confluence zone (horizontal support at $359.50, the 200-day EMA, and a PPO trend boundary). A failure to hold this level opens up a deep structural short target [[01:00:01]].

• Intel (INTC): Has broken below its tight consolidation range and near-term trendline, warning of an impending technical drop straight toward the bottom of its multi-year range [[01:00:01]].

• KLA Corp (KLAC) & Lam Research (LRCX): Equipment manufacturers are acting as the sector’s “canaries in the coal mine.” KLAC faces a critical technical breakdown line at $235 [[01:00:01]].

• ASML Holding (ASML): Flagged on a structural back-test sell signal beneath its primary broken uptrend line [[01:00:01]].

• MicroStrategy (MSTR / Leverage: MSTZ): Tracing a potential bearish continuation flag pattern while tied to spot Bitcoin. A break below the flag increases the odds of deeper price targets (T2–T4) being achieved. For short positioning, the 2x Inverse ETF (MSTZ) is utilized, though traders are cautioned about volatility decay during sideways consolidation phases [[01:00:01]].

• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Rallying into severe technical resistance at its 200-day exponential moving average while showing a notable negative divergence. Long entries require waiting for a clean close above the 200-day line; otherwise, it remains a short candidate [[01:00:01]].

3. Trade Milestones (Profit Targets Hit & Closed)

• Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): The long swing trade + growth & income trade hit its second profit target (T2), locking in a ~15% profit (inclusive of the $0.40 dividend paid on June 26th) [[01:00:01],].

• Etsy Inc. (ETSY): Hit its second price target (T2) on its daily chart for a massive 42% profit following a prolonged accumulation and back-test phase [[01:00:01]].

• Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN): Hit the bottom of its first technical price target zone (T1 zone) for a 21% profit [[01:00:01]].

• General Mills (GIS): Broke out cleanly from a falling wedge and successfully hit its first upside price target (T1) while paying an attractive 11% dividend yield [[01:00:01]].

• Grab Holdings Ltd (GRAB): The active long swing trade hit its first profit target (T1 at the primary downtrend line) for a 5% profit [[01:01:55]].

• Global Shipping ETF (BOAT): The active short swing trade hit both its first and second profit targets (T1 & T2) shortly after the market open on June 29th, locking in a 10% profit [[01:13:46]].

• Progressive Corp (PGR): Reached a revised final profit target (T1) for a 5% profit. Due to overhead 200-day moving average resistance, all additional targets (T2–T3) were officially canceled, and the trade was archived [[01:00:01],].

• Hormel Foods Corp (HRL): The long swing trade successfully hit its third and final price target (T3) for a 27% profit and has been moved to the completed archives [[01:00:01],].

• Snowline Gold Corp. (SNWGF): Completed a highly successful short-to-long sequence [[01:00:01]]:

  1. The short swing trade hit the top of its T2 price target zone for a 25% profit (following a prior short that pocketed 23%).

  2. Because dual price and uptrend line support signaled a reversal, the short was covered and reversed into a long position, which has already logged a 22% gain upon hitting its first long target (T1) [[01:00:01],].

• CME Group (CME) & Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): Long tactical positions successfully hit their reflexive counter-trend bounce targets during the week and were closed out to protect capital [[01:00:01]].

Associated Web/Video References

• Gold, Silver, & GDX Trade Ideas 7-2-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 7-1-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-25-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-24-26 Video

• Semiconductor Sector Analysis 6-23-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-23-26 Video

Wishing everyone a happy & safe weekend!

Here is a detailed summary of the various topics, market concepts, and specific securities covered in the video, organized chronologically with their associated timestamps and ticker symbols.

Introduction & Historical Context

• [00:01] Precious Metals Overview: Randy Phinney of Right Side Of The Chart, sets the stage for focusing strictly on precious metals and miners. He recaps the clear parabolic bubble identified earlier in the year in gold and silver, which led to a successful, rare leverage-short recommendation just before the crash in late January.

• [03:34] Swing Trading vs. Long-Term Investing: A distinction is made between long-term macro views and short-term swing trading. Swing trading focuses on capturing rapid counter-trend “rips and dips” (velocity) to maximize returns rather than riding out severe multi-year bear markets.

• [05:37] The Anatomy of Parabolic Bubbles: Utilizing a decades-long chart of silver, the speaker describes how parabolic trends increasingly approach a vertical slope. They are characterized by FOMO (fear of missing out) from retail crowds and historical warnings that “parabolic uptrends never end well,” routinely resolving in massive initial crashes.

Core Securities & ETFs Covered

Silver (Ticker: SLV / Futures: SI)

• Timestamps: [01:09], [26:05], [27:57]

• Summary: Following the 40% initial crash from its January peak, silver has achieved the presenter’s primary downside price targets. While he believes a multi-year bear market has likely begun, silver is currently poised for a near-to-intermediate-term counter-trend bounce. Short-term charts reveal bullish falling wedge breakouts. The speaker notes that futures traders can scale leverage down by using mini contracts (/QI) or micro contracts (/SIC) if the primary /SI contract multiplier is too large for their account size.

Gold (Ticker: GLD)

• Timestamps: [12:15], [17:57], [20:41]

• Summary: Looking at decades of monthly data, gold has completed two historical parabolic runs. Recently, gold broke out of a massive consolidation pattern before peaking in a classic “buying climax”—characterized by a vertical surge and a large volume spike. Since then, GLD has dropped roughly 30%, landing directly on dual-support boundaries (both a long-term linear uptrend line and the bottom of the speaker’s T3 target zone). Combined with positive (bullish) divergence conditions, it presents an objective near-term long scaling opportunity.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (Ticker: GDX)

• Timestamps: [31:23], [34:57]

• Summary: After flashing a negative divergence sell signal at its marginal new high, GDX suffered a 28% drop to hit its short-term downside target (T2 zone). It has currently carved out equal lows matching its positive divergence condition. The speaker uses GDX as the benchmark to trade the sector collectively since mining companies strongly correlate as “birds of a feather.”

Snowline Gold Corp. (Ticker: SNWGF)

• Timestamps: [23:09], [46:48]

• Summary: A Canadian mining company favored by fundamental analysts on YouTube. The speaker maps out two highly successful back-to-back short swing trades (bagging 23% and 25% profits) off a textbook complex head-and-shoulders pattern and primary trendline break. After hitting final downside targets, the trade was reversed into a long position, already logging a 22% gain upon hitting its first target (T1).

Macro Metrics & Individual Mining Components

ICE US Dollar Index (Ticker: NYICDX)

• Timestamps: [39:55]

• Summary: Because gold shares a tight inverse correlation with the USD, analyzing the dollar is critical. The dollar bottomed in January exactly when metals topped, and recently reached a peak target of $1.085. It is currently forming a bearish rising wedge pattern with negative divergence. A breakdown of this wedge would act as a powerful bullish tailwind for gold and silver.

Newmont Corporation (Ticker: NEM)

• Timestamps: [46:01], [54:26]

• Summary: The “$100 billion 800-pound gorilla in the room.” NEM has pulled back right to a clean, multi-reaction uptrend line off its lows. It exhibits bullish positive divergence, offering an objective long entry down to, but not below, the trendline support.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (Ticker: AEM)

• Timestamps: [56:57]

• Summary: The second-largest miner by market cap broke its primary uptrend line (supporting the macro bear market case). However, it has landed on a prominent support shelf at $150.47 (dating back to late 2025) coupled with positive divergence, indicating a localized bounce opportunity.

Franco-Nevada Corporation (Ticker: FNV)

• Timestamps: [57:51]

• Summary: FNV highlights a classic market principle where broken resistance becomes support. After violating that support zone and plunging, it has stabilized at a deeper support level with positive divergence intact.

Barrick Gold Corporation (Ticker: GOLD)

• Timestamps: [58:45]

• Summary: Mirroring the broader sector trend, Barrick exhibits distinct positive divergence at its $36 support floor. If a bear market rally triggers, the primary upside bounce target sits around $43.50 (roughly a 20% gain).

Kinross Gold Corporation (Ticker: KGC)

• Timestamps: [59:27]

• Summary: KGC broke its primary uptrend line but shows positive divergence, signaling the likelihood of a “kickback rally” or a technical back-test of the broken line, which could yield a 25% profit. Key support rests at $22.

Royal Gold, Inc. (Ticker: RGLD)

• Timestamps: [01:01:01]

• Summary: Praised by the speaker for its exceptionally clean technical layout, RGLD features a very well-defined uptrend line with multiple precise reaction points dating back to early 2024.

Other Quick-Fire Mining Tickers Checked:

• • Alamos Gold Inc. (Ticker: AGI) [01:01:42]: Sitting at support, though it lacks strong divergence patterns relative to peers.

  • Coeur Mining, Inc. (Ticker: CDE) [01:01:51]: Developing positive divergence within a narrow price channel; objective long at $15.10.

  • Equinox Gold Corp. (Ticker: EQX) [01:02:21]: Reversing off long-term support set in 2021 ($9.34); eyes an approximate 27% bounce target toward dual resistance at $11.77.

  • Osiskos Gold Royalties Ltd (Ticker: OR) [01:03:35]: Resting actively on support with positive divergence; upside target points to a trendline back-test representing a 15–16% profit.

  • Centerra Gold Inc. (Ticker: CGAU / noted as CG) [01:04:03]: Displays characteristic positive divergence.

  • SSR Mining Inc. (Ticker: SSRM) [01:04:07]: Undergoing a technical back-test after coming down from a major divergent high.

Here is a comprehensive summary of the swing trading ideas and technical analysis provided in the video, organized chronologically by asset class, sector, and ticker symbol.

1. Market Context & Holiday Trading Volumes

• [00:01] Holiday Whipsaw Warning: Due to the abbreviated trading week ahead of the July 4th holiday, lower volumes can amplify volatility and cause false breakouts or tight stops to get run. Traders are urged to exercise patience.

• [04:30] S&P 500 (SPY) & Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): The broad equity market has essentially moved sideways in a tight consolidation box for the past two months. On the daily chart, QQQ exhibits negative price momentum divergence via the momentum indicators such as the PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) & RSI (Relative Strength) indicators, pointing to a fading trend. Critical support to watch on the hourly chart of QQQ sits at $705.19.

2. Semiconductor Sector Structural Sell Signals

• [22:27] Market Breadth Disparity: An unusual dynamic is highlighted where the majority of Nasdaq 100 components are trading higher, but the index is down 1.5% due to outsized cap-weighted distribution within chip stocks. The broader sector (SOXX / SMH) printed a weekly bearish engulfing candle, triggering a macro sell signal.

• [30:31] KLA Corp (KLAC) & Lam Research (LRCX): Equipment manufacturers are highlighted as the “canaries in the coal mine.” KLAC faces key breakdown support at $235.

• [31:14] Applied Materials (AMAT) & Western Digital (WDC): Experiencing downward sector rotation into trailing tech names.

• [31:24] Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Undergoing a technical breakdown and back-test pattern. A break below $501 targets its 200-day moving average.

• [33:30] NVIDIA (NVDA): Downward rotation has brought the stock into contact with its key 200-day moving average support line.

• [33:42] Broadcom (AVGO): Testing its triple-confluence support zone (PPO trend boundary, the 200-day EMA, and horizontal support at $359.50). If bullish, this represents an objective entry point; if it fails, it initiates a deeper short target.

• [38:44] Micron Technology (MU): A clean sell signal was triggered today by breaking below its dynamic uptrend line off the March lows. It faces a projected mean reversion drop of 25% to 50% down toward its 200-day moving average.

• [43:11] ASML Holding (ASML) & Intel (INTC): ASML is flagged on a structural back-test sell signal. INTC has broken below its tight consolidation range and near-term trendline, warning of an impending move straight through to the bottom of its historical range.

3. Cryptocurrency & MicroStrategy

• [45:54] Bitcoin (BTC / IBIT): Trading within a defined macro markdown environment (lower highs and lower lows) near the $58,628 horizontal support level. It holds short-term positive momentum divergence inside a falling wedge, but the overarching bear market structure risks burning through it.

• [47:36] MicroStrategy (MSTR): Clinging to momentum divergence but forming a potential bearish continuation flag pattern. A break below the flag & especially well below the recent lows will increase the odds of the deeper price targets (T2-T4) being hit.

• [50:33] Leverage Considerations (MSTZ): For active short positioning against MicroStrategy, the 2x Inverse ETF is discussed. Caution is advised during sideways consolidation phases due to volatility decay.

• [01:03:25] Riot Platforms (RIOT): Down 11% today following a textbook technical breakdown from a divergent high.

4. Fixed Income & Bond Yields

• [54:50] Long-Term Treasuries (TLT): Safely hit its ultimate potential upside target region (T4) set back in mid-May and has since entered a natural pullback phase.

• [55:42] 30-Year Treasury Yields ($TYX): Nearing a major multi-decade breakout point. Yields are resting at a crucial structural triple top near 5.0%. A clean break above this level is flagged as a key catalyst that could severely pressure equities.

5. Defensive Longs & Consumer Staples

• [58:41] Alibaba Group (BABA): Broke out above a long-term structural downtrend line today, presenting a technically objective long entry point with a well-defined stop below the trendline.

• [59:44] Kraft Heinz (KHC) & General Mills (GIS): Flagged as slow, high-yielding “grandma stocks” that offer a much safer risk-to-reward ratio than overheated chip equities. GIS broke out cleanly from a falling wedge and hit its first upside price target today, paying an 11% dividend yield.

6. Financial Sector Internal Divergence

• [01:01:51] Financial Select SPDR (XLF): The sector is green but displaying sharp internal disparities. Outperformance is concentrated in specific names like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Brown-Forman (BF.B), and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG).

• [01:02:54] Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): Breaking out above its near-term downtrend line; set alerts at $41.37 for verification.

• [01:04:11] CME Group (CME) & Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): Long positions hit their reflexive bounce price targets and were closed. The long-term weekly outlook remains structurally bearish for both exchanges.

• [01:05:52] Hindenburg Omen Warning: The custom Hindenburg indicator has triggered a dense cluster of readings, prompting a continuing “Market Crash Watch.”

7. Individual Stock Q&A

• [01:06:55] Novo Nordisk (NVO): Moving upward into severe resistance at its 200-day exponential moving average while showing notable negative divergence. Long entries require a clean close above the 200-day line first.

• [01:08:23] Lululemon Athletica (LULU): A long-term bear market stock currently carving out a short-term bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence on its weekly frame. It presents a viable counter-trend bounce setup.

• [01:13:07] Crude Oil (CL): Broke out of a bullish falling wedge pattern and is currently back-testing support. Position sizes are being kept small due to highly unpredictable geopolitical developments and policy announcements.

   

Here is a summary of the video from Right Side of the Chart, providing a session update for Thursday, June 25, 2026:

Core Market Outlook: Rising Risk of a Crash

The speaker emphasizes that the risk of a market crash scenario remains very high, keeping the market on a continuous “Crash Watch” status [00:26]. While financial sectors are holding up for now, various technical indicators and irregularities point to underlying fragility [01:34].

Main Technical Concerns

• Narrowing Market Breadth: For the last couple of years, market gains were heavily carried by the largest big tech companies (the “MAG-8”). Now that these major stocks have peaked, market leadership has narrowed even further down to just the semiconductor subsector [02:12].

• The “Hindenburg” Indicator: The speaker notes that his variation of the Hindenburg indicator—which tracks multiple breath indicators across the NASDAQ—has been triggering recently, almost daily. This signals a lack of broad participation, which is a major yellow or red flag for a healthy bull market [19:42].

• The Semiconductor Mania: Following a massive pre-market blowout quarter from Micron, there was an initial retail-driven surge across nearly all chipmakers [09:44]. However, this institutional “bench-warmer” after-hours volume began getting heavily faded and sold down once regular trading hours opened [13:46].

Trading Strategy & Current Plays

Given the top-heavy risks in tech and semiconductors, the strategy focuses on spreading bets across alternative asset classes and moving into defensive, value-driven plays [15:09]:

• Defensive & Boring Picks: The speaker favors “boring” blue-chip dividend-paying stocks that are fundamentally sound and beaten down, such as packaged foods (e.g., Hormel Foods, General Mills, and McCormick) [06:15, 23:32].

• Insurance Sector: The speaker highlights success in the specialty insurance market, noting that Progressive (PGR) recently cleared its price targets [15:16]. He also touches upon a breakout setup for Trupanion (TRUP) [25:50] and active targets for Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) [29:52].

• Commodities & Precious Metals: He mentions scaling into starter positions for gold and silver miners (like SNWGF and GDX), viewing them as favorable asset hedges as the charts develop alongside the US Dollar index [40:11, 41:13].

Here is a summary of the market analysis from the video titled “Semiconductor Sector Analysis 6-23-26” by Randy Phinny from Right Side of the Chart:

Broad Market & Volatility Overview

• The VIX Has Woken Up: The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) broke out of its bullish falling wedge pattern and jumped 13% [01:14]. Historically, major runs in the VIX align with market corrections and bear markets [01:00].

• Nasdaq / QQQ Vulnerability: Tech has driven the bulk of the stock market’s returns [01:52]. QQQ broke down from a minor wedge pattern, and if it closes the week at these levels, it will form a bearish engulfing candle, which serves as a notable topping signal [05:43], [32:45].

• NQ Support Levels: Initial support for Nasdaq futures sits around 29,500 and 28,940, with a longer-term target zone pointing to a potential 14% drop down to around 26,826 [06:15], [06:53].

Financials & Hidden Risks

• XLF Stalling: The financial sector (XLF) has stalled near the $54.50 resistance level [08:38]. To see the VIX truly spike, the financial sector generally needs to roll over alongside technology [00:34].

• The Shadow Market: Concerns are rising around private equity (PSP) and business development companies/private credit (BIZD) [09:45], [14:53]. The BIZD ETF is trading at its lowest levels since the COVID-19 crash [22:41]. Leverage in these sectors presents systemic threats similar to “yield traps” [17:39], [18:48].

Bitcoin & Strategy (MSTR) Unwind

• Intertwined Fortunes: MicroStrategy (MSTR) has effectively hit its first short target [23:45]. The long-term short thesis assumes a multi-week unwind of its highly leveraged corporate strategy [24:59].

• BTC Support: Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging onto key support around $58,628 [25:28]. If this support fails and the structural bullish divergence disappears, it could trigger a wave of retail margin liquidation that directly pulls MSTR down [25:56], [27:27].

Semiconductor Sector Deep Dive

The semiconductor space is experiencing signs of a “buying climax” or blowoff top characterized by near-vertical parabolic price movement paired with heavy volume surges [35:05]. Parabolic advances typically resolve in sudden, severe downward corrections [36:15].

Trading Takeaway: Randy notes that while shorting via deep out-of-the-money (OTM) put options was cheap prior to this breakdown, buying outright short shares (or utilizing inverse leverage etfs like SOXS for short-duration trades) is the preferred way to capture the quick rush to the exits [41:15], [42:59].