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YouTube link: https://youtu.be/9kSafTU7iEc

In this mid-session market update, Randy Phinney compares the current technical posture of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) with its 2021 bull market top structure. By examining the 60-minute and daily charts, the analysis illustrates uncanny technical similarities—including divergent highs, trendline breakdowns, and bounce levels—and outlines objective entries and downside price targets.

Securities & Topics Covered

• Invesco QQQ Trust (00:00) — QQQDetailed technical breakdown of QQQ on 60-minute, daily, and 2-day timeframes. The video highlights current resistance backtests of a symmetrical triangle pattern, persistent negative divergence, and the active short trade setup. Objective downside price targets discussed for QQQ include:
  • T1: Initial support/target zone (previously hit & reacted)
  • T2: ~467 level (previously hit & reacted)
  • T3: ~454 level
  • T4 (Final Target): ~436 level (representing an approximate 15% drop from entry, aligning closely with the 200-day moving average)

  Additionally, an alternate “marginal new high” scenario is detailed where a brief punch to new highs would create a guaranteed divergent high on daily/weekly charts before failing toward T4.

• Nasdaq 100 Index / Futures (01:41) — $NDX / /NQHistorical perspective on major bear market drawdowns, comparing the 78% drop during the 2000–2002 dot-com bubble and the 38% (11-month) decline during the 2021–2022 tech bear market. Discussion on how tech concentration impacts $NDX, QQQ,  and /NQ compared to broader market indexes.
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (10:33) — SPY / $SPX / /ESAnalysis of SPY/S&P 500 divergence relative to QQQ. Just as in late 2021 when SPY pushed to a marginal new high 1.4 months after QQQ peaked on November 22, 2021, recent price action shows broader indexes pushing new highs while tech leadership lags under negative divergence.
• Historical Chart Comparison: Late 2021 vs. Present (16:00) — QQQWalkthrough of archived 60-minute QQQ charts from Nov 2021 through March 2022 (16:56, 23:09, 25:45, 28:00, 29:03). Highlights how initial minor trendline breaks and sell signals preceded massive 38% downside moves, offering a roadmap for current expectations.
• VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (42:02) — REMXReview of a completed short trade setup in REMX that achieved its T2 target for a +20% profit (and ultimate potential T3 target for a +24% gain). Demonstrates risk management techniques such as trailing stop-losses (e.g., 5% trailing stops) to maximize trend capture.
• Snowline Gold Corp. (45:08) — SNWGFCase study of active swing trading in gold mining stocks. Highlights multiple completed cycles on SNWGF, including a short trade off a Head & Shoulders pattern for a 23% gain, a second short break for 25–26% profit, and subsequent long bounce trades hitting targets up to +37% upside.

Ticker Symbols Discussed:

QQQ, $NDX, /NQ, SPY, $SPX, /ES, REMX, SNWGF, GDX, GLD, $GOLD, $SLV, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, MSFT

Current 60-minute Chart Of QQQ Followed By Those From 2021/2022 Covered in Video:

QQQ 60m Aug 6th 2026

QQQ 60m Nov 29th 2021

QQQ 60m Dec 16th 2021

QQQ 60m Jan 10th 2022

QQQ 60m March 30th 2022

(Time/Date stamp on bottom left corner of each chart)

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Here is a summary of the market catalysts, technical levels, and key macro risks to watch this week.

1. Technical Levels & Market Reaction

• QQQ Key Support: Keep a close eye on the bottom of the first price target (T1) zone on the 60-minute chart around 676.92, which successfully held its initial test around 11:00 AM ET today.

• SOXX Key Support: Watch last Friday’s low on the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which also held up during morning testing.

• Filter Out Event “Noise”: Treat any early breakouts or breakdowns with a grain of salt until the Federal Reserve decision and the post-FOMC volatility pass, alongside earnings from the “Big 4” tech leaders.

• Downside Targets: While a breakdown below current support levels in QQQ and SOXX could hold before these events, the probability of hitting the next lower price targets rises significantly if both indices remain below support after the Fed meeting and mega-cap earnings have cleared.

2. Federal Reserve Decision & Inflation

• Wednesday Rate Decision: The Fed’s two-day policy meeting concludes Wednesday. Policymakers are closely monitoring geopolitical tensions and energy volatility for potential inflationary pressures.

• Interest Rate Outlook: Markets currently price in roughly a 66% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, there is roughly a 31% to 33% chance of a rate hike if inflation concerns resurface.

• Fed Division: While Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to favor keeping policy unchanged, hawkish committee members could argue for tighter monetary policy to preempt supply-chain or energy-driven price pressures.

3. Big Tech Earnings & AI Capex

• “Big 4” Mega-Cap Reports: A massive slate of corporate earnings is led by Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN). (All four reporting after the market close, with MSFT & META on Wednesday followed by APPL & AMZN on Thursday).

• AI Infrastructure Spend: Wall Street will strictly evaluate quarterly guidance and heavy capital expenditures on AI data centers to ensure these massive infrastructure investments are translating into near-term revenue growth.

4. Geopolitics & Energy Prices

• Oil Pulldown: Crude oil prices dropped to start the week following news of a tentative pause in Middle East hostilities. Lower energy prices offer immediate relief to inflation-weary equity markets, but geopolitical developments remain a fluid wildcard for broader sentiment.

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YouTube link: https://youtu.be/iRcvSSwMNz4

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YouTube link: https://youtu.be/ggHawUBoaYw

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YouTube link: https://youtu.be/Tsv-MxkZ4Q0

Here is the summary of the video analysis by Randy Phinney from Right Side of the Chart, featuring technical analysis, trade setups, and earnings predictions.

Video Overview & Market Context

In this update, Randy Phinney provides technical analysis on major index ETFs, key tech individual stocks, and broader market components ahead of peak earnings season.

• 00:00:01 — Introduction & Earnings Risk Overview: Discussion on the three core stages of an earnings report (the initial release/algo reaction, conference call guidance, and regular session price discovery) plus the broader follow-through over subsequent weeks.

• 00:06:39 — Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ):

  • Summary: Day 3 of back-testing the bottom of a symmetrical triangle pattern.

  • Outlook: Offers an objective short entry on this back-test up to the top of the triangle. Rejection is expected, aligning with broader market bearishness.

Securities Analyzed

1. Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

• Timestamp: 00:10:14

• Outlook: Down (Confidence: Medium-Low)

• Technical Analysis: Coming off a large multi-year divergent high on the daily/weekly charts. Price has slightly broken below a primary uptrend line dating back to 2019/2024. Buying vigor off support has been weakening.

• Levels & Targets:

  • Objective Short: Current levels (slight breakdown below uptrend line).

  • Bullish Reversal Level: Daily close back above the uptrend line and triangle pattern.

2. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

• Timestamp: 00:23:41

• Outlook: Down (Confidence: Medium)

• Technical Analysis: Currently above its 200-day moving averages and primary uptrend line off April lows. However, the PPO indicator is in bearish territory, suggesting a deeper correction is pending despite clearing initial overbought conditions.

• Levels & Targets:

  • Key Support Zone / Breakdown Level: $314 – $321 (confluence of price support, 200-day SMA/EMA, and primary uptrend line).

  • Downside Target: Needs a ~10% drop to break the $314 zone to confirm a larger ~15% market pullback.

3. ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)

• Timestamp: 00:29:36

• Outlook: Neutral / Stand Aside

• Technical Analysis: Recently hit its 200-day moving average resistance following a long-side trade recommendation from June 1st (which yielded a 40% profit near the $124 target & a 62% gain to the max. price target). Technical indicators are currently neutral in the middle zone.

4. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

• Timestamp: 00:33:45

• Outlook: Up (Active Long Position)

• Technical Analysis: Bouncing off key support following a 25% single-day pre-announcement drop. Most negative news appears priced in.

• Levels & Targets:

  • Stop Level: Suspended for earnings; reinstated on daily close below $208.82.

  • Price Targets: $234.78 (Target 1) and $243.00 (Target 2).

  • Execution Strategy: Proponent of using OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) limit orders set to execute during extended-hours to catch earnings volatility.

5. Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

• Timestamp: 00:40:43

• Outlook: Down (Confidence: Low)

• Technical Analysis: Exhibiting a series of large divergent highs following a breakdown from a bearish rising wedge pattern.

• Levels & Targets:

  • Support / Price Target 1: ~$274.90

  • Price Target 2: ~$259.85

  • Primary Downside Target: Gap-fill zone near $236.79.

6. United Rentals, Inc. (URI)

• Timestamp: 00:44:57

• Outlook: Down (Confidence: Fair)

• Technical Analysis: Formed a textbook bearish rising wedge pattern and recently broke down, currently back-testing a former all-time high breakout level.

• Levels & Targets:

  • Support Target 1: $907.85

  • Support Target 2: $882.39

  • Major Trendline Support: Primary uptrend line from 2022 lows.

7. Nokia Corporation (NOK)

• Timestamp: 00:47:17

• Outlook: Neutral (Oversold)

• Technical Analysis: Already dropped ~44% from its divergent high and hit its 200-day moving average. Too oversold to call down further, but awaiting clearer buy signals before entering.

List of Ticker Symbols

QQQ, TSLA, GOOGL, GOOG, NOW, IBM, TXN, URI, NOK

For reference, were are the charts that were posted on the previous long swing trade on NOW, which was covered in the video above, highlighting the near perfect entry (just off the key March bottom, with the NOW going on to hit my 136.50 & intersecting 200-day MA’s “maximum price target” for a 62% profit from the March entry, and literally topping & immediately reversing (-36%) from there.

NOW April 13 video screenshot

NOW-daily-May-29th

NOW daily July 22nd

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Here is the weekly recap of the topics, securities covered, and swing trade ideas posted on rightsideofthechart.com between July 11, 2026, and July 18, 2026:

1. Weekly Market Overview & Sectors Covered

The analysis from this week highlights an environment marked by aggressive internal sector rotation and a potential transition from a pure “stockpicker’s market” into an elevated risk phase for broad-based market corrections.

• Nasdaq 100 Futures (/NQ) & ETF (QQQ): Stalled out in a tight, two-month-long sideways consolidation. Technical analysis notes heavy, long-standing negative divergences on daily and weekly timeframes. A bearish PPO crossover forming on the weekly chart historically hints at a potential 13% to 26% broad market correction.

• PHLX Semiconductor Index / iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Struck heavily by institutional unwinding and capital outflows. The sector already triggered a weekly bearish PPO crossover, resulting in a swift 24% decline from recent highs & hitting T1 (first price target) on the daily chart mid-week & printing a solid close below it on Friday, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target(s) will be hit in the coming days/weeks.

• Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF): Highlighted as the critical sector holding up the broader equity market. Large negative divergences are visible on daily and weekly charts alongside a bearish rising wedge on the 60-minute timeframe. A sector sell signal is anticipated upon a decisive breakdown out of the bearish rising wedge pattern that was highlighted on the 60-minute chart.

• CBOE Market Volatility Index ($VIX): Exhibiting a bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence. Historically, when financials roll over to meet broader market breakdowns, a 50%+ volatility spike has been the standard macro response.

• Gold, Silver & Mining Equities (GDX, GLD, SLV): Gold (GLD) continues to test major multi-month price support (the final price target for the recent short trade off the all-time highs in gold) following recent short-covering pullbacks. Near-to-intermediate timeframes exhibit positive (bullish) divergences, setting up constructive scaling-in long setups or swing trades for the precious metals & miners.

• Grains & Soft Agriculture (TILL, /ZS, /ZW, /ZC, SOYB, WEAT, CORN): The continuous macro-bullish thesis remains fully intact across physical agricultural commodities (soybeans, wheat, corn, sugar) as defensive, uncorrelated, inflation-resistant asset allocations.

2. Individual Securities Analyzed

Financials & Payment Processors

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): In a bullish trend, albeit with a bearish technical posture; watching for a definitive sell signal if price breaks below its key primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average confluence (the $206–$210 range).

• Visa Inc. (V) & Mastercard Inc. (MA): Both credit networks are exhibiting clean 60-minute bearish rising wedges paired with negative divergences right against their recent all-time highs.

• Bank of America Corp. (BAC): Testing major primary support at $52.63, which perfectly intersects its 200-day moving average and bull market trendline. A solid break below that support would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, particularly if the majority of the other large banks and XLF also trigger sell signals around that time.

• Morgan Stanley (MS): Already broke beneath its primary uptrend line and completed a back-test from below (now working as overhead resistance).

• Goldman Sachs Group ($GS): Pointed out for short potential as it tests a steep, overextended uptrend line with substantial negative divergence.

• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): Pullback trajectory targets the $83.00 handle, tracking down toward structural support and its rising 200-day moving average.

• American Express Co. (AXP): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern with intermediate-to-long-term targets pointing to an eventual 30% drop from recent peaks.

• Citigroup Inc. (C): “Walking the line” on a minor short-term uptrend; a clean breach lower would confirm a sector-wide financial flush.

Mega-Cap Tech & Semiconductors

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): Bearish near-term trend (lower lows & lower highs) following a divergent high with a long-term bullish trend & intermediate-term sideways trend; watching price action with a confluence of price & 200-day moving average support around the $190 level, with the next sell signal to come on a solid break below it.

• Apple Inc. (AAPL): Bearish setup utilizing a distinct rising wedge and momentum divergence targeting a 17% decline back to its 200-day simple moving average.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Testing multi-month dual support right at its primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average.

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Stuck in a technical “no man’s land” floating between its immediate price support floor and its deeper 200-day moving average.

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Trapped by a failed breakout above its previous all-time highs; technical breakdown pending a near-term trendline crack.

• Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Failed breakout pattern displaying sharp negative divergence; eyeing a correction down to its key 200-day moving average.

• Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Trading directly under a long-term, multi-month structural resistance line off its historical highs.

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Experiencing momentum loss inside a large symmetrical triangle; keeping a tight eye on the April 2024 trendline anchor, as a solid break and/or daily close below would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, most likely exerting pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

• Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Marked as a high-probability short swing candidate; a break of immediate support opens up a potential 50% macro drawdown.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): High intermediate downside risk targeting a primary support zone and moving average confluence down ~40% off its highs.

• ASML Holding NV (ASML): Flagged as an objective short play on a clean trendline breakdown and subsequent back-test from below.

• Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Sitting on immediate trendline support; technicals warn of severe institutional “unwinding” potential ahead.

• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): Bearish swing trade setup targeting an eventual 30% correction down to the $101.80 price support level.

• Lam Research Corp. (LRCX): Bearish structure targeting a deep pullback to its underlying 200-day moving average confluence support.

• Intel Corp. (INTC): As predicted back on June 18th (click to view that post with summary notes on INTC), this key semiconductor stock went on to trigger a sell signal on a break below the uptrend line off its key March 30th pivot low, also going on to make the predicted failed breakout/bull trap above the top of its 2-month sideways trading range after putting in a marginal new & divergent high, with a swift drop back down to the initial price target of the bottom of that range at 99.59, constituting a swift 29% drop from that divergent high. INTC went on to trigger the next sell signal on Thursday with a solid break & close below the 99.59 target/support, with downside follow-through on Friday to close the week solidly below the trading range, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target around 80.40 will be hit in the coming days/weeks.

Crypto-Adjacent, Commodities, & Consumer Staples

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): Highly linked component of broad equity and cryptocurrency risk. The stock broke down below an essential multi-month support line at $102.19 on June 24th, shifting macro technical dynamics lower, with multiple attempts to recover that former support, now resistance, level since then, failing, with MSTR rejected. Deep downside targets remain active, with a risk of an eventual margin-driven liquidation model unfolding. However, with positive divergences still in place at the recent lows on both MSTR & Bitcoin, we need to see the recent lows in both taken out & even better, if the positive divergences are also taken out, in order to sharply increase the odds that my next downside price target(s) on MSTR & Bitcoin will be hit.

• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern; a breakdown beneath the lower trendline will trigger a high-conviction short trade.

• Analog Devices (ADI) & Seagate Technology (STX): Both technology names are rolling over off clearly defined divergent highs near their peaks.

• Western Digital (WDC): Sitting precariously on a near-term uptrend line; a decisive daily close below acts as an active sell signal.

• Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): Consumer staples short thesis building around “subscription fatigue”; looking for a decisive break beneath $907 support.

• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Stood out as a technical rejection; turned lower directly off its 200-day moving average despite positive divergence.

• Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Bearish pre-earnings profile mapping out a deep macro-structural downside target down near the $46.00 handle.

• Mondelez International (MDLZ): Retesting its primary daily horizontal support line; maintaining a strictly neutral stance for now.

• Walmart Inc. (WMT): Sluggish technical profile after breaking below its primary uptrend line; currently backtesting its 200-day moving average from below.

• Oracle Corp (ORCL): Long-term setup offering an objective buy zone as it tests a major secular uptrend line stretching back to 2020.

• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) & Health Care Sector (XLV): XLV displayed a bearish island reversal candle off a failed triple-top breakout. Eli Lilly is pulling back off a distinct divergent high, signaling that its multi-month momentum run is likely near its end.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Pulling back on negative divergence to retest its previous macro breakout level down at $220.44.

3. Active Swing Trade Setups Initiated This Week

The following setups were posted as objective new trade entries or tactical bounce candidates:

• IBM (International Business Machines Corp) — Active Long (Tactical Bounce):

  • Setup: Initiated as a reflexive “catch-a-falling-knife” long bounce entry following a quick 26% drop into major horizontal support.

  • Entry Zone: Long near support around $215.18.

  • Stop-Loss: Daily close below $208.82 (~3% risk).

  • Price Target: First profit target (T1) is set just below $234.78 support-turned-resistance (~9% gain), offering an attractive 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

• ERIE (Erie Indemnity Co.) — Active Long (Breakout Backtest):

  • Setup: Initiated on July 14th as an objective long entry on a technical backtest of a broken price channel and horizontal support following a fresh breakout.

  • Entry Zone: Long at support around $234.60.

  • Stop-Loss: Suggested stop was a daily close below $224.90. (Note: See Completed Trades below for milestone update).

• Tactical Mean-Reversion Long Bounce Candidates:

  • T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): Long bounce candidate targeting a tactical 5% to 10% move up to overhead price resistance.

  • Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG): Mean-reversion long bounce play initiated right off solid price support sitting at $366.

  • Adobe Inc. (ADBE): High-conviction long bounce trade exhibiting powerful positive divergence; targeting an 18% upside move to its 200-day SMA.

  • Intuit Inc. (INTU): Extremely oversold technical conditions setting up a high-probability mean-reversion long bounce back up to its 200-day SMA.

4. Completed Swing Trades & Milestone Recaps

The following table covers all official swing trade positions that hit one or more profit targets or triggered a stop-loss during this weekly window, including their exact realized percentages:

5. Potential Developments to Watch Going Forward

• The Financial Sector Break Point: Randy Phinney emphasizes that the broader stock market will not face a systemic flush until the financial sector officially buckles. Watch for a decisive 60-minute closing break below the active rising wedge pattern on XLF (and key support levels on heavyweights like BAC at $52.63 and JPM at $206–$210) next week to catalyze the next macro leg down.

• The Nasdaq 100 T1 Support Floor: Following a swift reaction bounce off the initial tag of the 28,525 support zone on /NQ (and the matching T1 first price target zone on QQQ), the index is retesting this floor. Because a consolidation range has built up here since June, a clean breakdown below this zone is highly likely to accelerate a rapid, fluid drop down toward the next deep targets and the 200-day moving average (~$636 on QQQ).

• The Weekly Semiconductor Reset: Keep a close eye on the weekly charts of SOXX and XSD. A major, high-level bearish PPO histogram crossover is actively printing out of historic overbought territory. This structural shift fundamentally maps out a multi-week trajectory of selling, making any short-term bounces objective short entries or add-on levels rather than long entries to chase.

• Gold Miner Scale-In Execution: Watch the structural price floor of GDX between the current $72.26 support level down to the absolute trailing floor of $67. As long as the sector holds above $67, the positive daily momentum divergences favor an intermediate counter-trend accumulation phase, utilizing falling crude prices as a margin-widening tailwind.

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YouTube link: https://youtu.be/wXAa9EIuGKw

This technical analysis video by Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart provides a comprehensive mid-session market update for July 17, 2026. The presentation focuses on the “Point of Recognition” in the markets, highlighting bearish technical developments in the Nasdaq 100 and Semiconductor sectors, while sounding a warning for the Financial sector, which currently holds up the broader market.

Market Indexes & Sectors

• Nasdaq 100 Futures (01:12) ($NQ): Phinney highlights that /NQ hit its first target zone this morning. He identifies a potential bounce target zone between 28,941 and 29,232. However, he remains long-term bearish.

• Nasdaq 100 ETF (04:35) ($QQQ): On the 1-minute chart, Phinney notes an objective short entry or add-on if the current intraday uptrend line breaks. On the weekly chart, a bearish PPO crossover is forming. Historical data suggests this could lead to a 13% to 26% correction, with a price target at T4 (approx. 15% drop from highs).

• PHLX Semiconductor Sector (10:02) ($SOXX): The semiconductors have already triggered a weekly bearish PPO crossover. Phinney notes a current 24% drop from recent highs and maintains a target of further downside, warning against “chasing” the bounce unless the 200-day moving average is recovered.

• Financial Select Sector SPDR (14:04) (XLF): Phinney emphasizes that the stock market truly won’t break until the Financials do. XLF is showing large negative divergences on the daily & weekly charts at this marginal new high. He highlights a bearish rising wedge pattern on the 60-minute chart with a sell signal on the financial sector to come on a solid break below it.

• CBOE Market Volatility Index (19:28) ($VIX): The VIX is displaying a bullish falling wedge with positive divergence. Historically, similar setups have led to 50%+ spikes in volatility when the financial sector finally buckles.

Individual Stocks

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (16:48) (JPM): Displays long-standing negative divergence with a sell signal to be triggered if the key support level of the primary uptrend line & 200-day moving average (206-$210 range) is taken out.

• Visa Inc. (18:18) ($V): Following a successful short to the final price target (T6) & reversing from there, Visa has returned to test its all-time highs with a divergent high. A break of the rising wedge pattern is the objective short signal.

• Mastercard Inc. (18:41) ($MA): Similar to Visa, MA is showing a clean 60-minute bearish rising wedge with negative divergence.

• Bank of America Corp. (19:03) (BAC): Testing a major support level at 52.63, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and primary uptrend line. A break here would be a significant bearish catalyst.

• Morgan Stanley (19:26) (MA) has already broken below its uptrend line & backtested it (now resistance) from below with the next support at 99.30 and the 200-day MA.

• Goldman Sachs Group (19:48) ($GS): Testing a steep uptrend line with significant negative divergence.

• Wells Fargo & Co. (19:54) (WFC) Pullback targeting the 83.00 level, coinciding with price support and the 200-day moving average.

• American Express Co. (20:24) ($AXP): Forming a bearish rising wedge. Phinney’s long-term target is T5, representing an approximate 30% drop from recent highs.

• Citigroup Inc. (20:46) ($C): Currently “walking the line” of its minor uptrend. A decisive break next week would confirm the bearish sector-wide thesis.

Risk Management & Position Sizing (20:30)

Phinney concludes with a lesson on position sizing. He recommends beta-adjusting positions for volatile assets like SOXX or leverage ETFs by using reduced position sizing while increasing position sizing for low-volatility assets like Treasury bonds (TLT, /ZB).

Ticker Symbols Discussed:
/NQ, QQQ, SOXX, XLF, VIX, JPM, V, MA, BAC, MS, GS, WFC, AXP, C, TLT, /ZB

The post QQQ, SOXX, & XLF Analysis 7-17-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

The post /NQ QQQ Next Price Target Hit 7-17-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/cdaWPPC2Sq0

This mid-session video update for July 16, 2026, features Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart providing an extensive technical review of the major market indexes and a wide array of individual stocks. Randy reiterates his thesis that 2026 is a “stockpicker’s market” defined by rapid moves and institutional rotation out of high-flying tech. He provides objective levels for both long bounce candidates and high-conviction short setups across the Nasdaq 100.

Market Outlook & Strategic Overview

• The 2026 Environment: 00:51 – While Randy highlights that 2026 has clearly been & may continue to remain a heavy stockpicker’s market where institutional “smart money” is rotating out of overextended tech sectors into defensive “grandma stocks” (Consumer Staples) and various commodities for the near-term, he now suspects that the risks for a broad-based selloff in the major stock indices is increasing and that if & when that happens, he may start favor concentrated short positions on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 & select sectors, such as the semiconductors, over the recent relatively rapid rotation of swing trading a diverse specturm of individual stocks. He emphasizes that rapid technical movements in the recent stock-picker’s market require traders to book price targets quickly once the final target is hit, as sudden reversals off those levels have been the norm lately.

• Market Concentration: 14:38 – Analysis of the “Top 10” heavy concentration in the Nasdaq 100, where a handful of stocks dictate the index’s direction despite internal weakness.

Indexes, Sectors & ETFs

• Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 00:56 – Randy maintains a bearish near-term and intermediate-term stance, looking for a correction back toward the 200-day moving average. The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern under heavy pressure.
  • Objective Entry/Levels: Randy identifies critical near-term support at $705, which is likely to spark the next wave of selling if & when clearly taken out.

Price Targets: Following the initial hit of Target Zone 1 (T1), Randy is eyeing Target Zone 2 (T2) at roughly $662 and deeper third & fourth targets below, resulting in a drop of about 15% from the recent highs, if hit.

• S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 00:56 – Briefly discussed in the context of the broader market, showing a sideways trading range with signs of institutional capital outflows.
• Grains/Agriculture ETF (TILL): 06:09 – (Visible in scroll) Randy remains intermediate & longer-term bullish on agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Individual Stock Analysis

• IBM (International Business Machines): 07:05 –Randy discusses a tactical long bounce trade. He highlights a potential “false breakdown” or “bear trap” where the stock dropped through support to trigger stops before recovering today.

  • Entry: Long at support near $215.18.

  • Stop: Daily close below $208.82.

• NVDA (NVIDIA Corp): 25:56 – Bearish stance following a divergent high.

  • Levels: Watching for a break below the 195ish price support & 200-day moving averages just below in order to trigger a sell signal. 

• AAPL (Apple Inc): 25:59 – Identification of a bearish rising wedge and negative divergence.

  • Price Target: Retest of the 200-day SMA, roughly a 17% decline, should the potential sell signals covered in the video trigger.

• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A): 28:37 – Testing dual support from an uptrend line and the 200-day moving average.

• MSFT (Microsoft Corp): 30:26 – Technical “no man’s land” between the 200-day SMA and current support.

• AMZN (Amazon.com Inc): 33:02 – Failed breakout above previous all-time highs; sell signal on a trendline break.

• AVGO (Broadcom Inc): 36:45 – Failed breakout with negative divergence; eyeing a drop to the 200-day SMA.

• META (Meta Platforms Inc): 38:28 – Trading at a significant long-term resistance line off the all-time highs.

• TSLA (Tesla Inc): 40:55 – Momentum loss within a symmetrical triangle; watching the April 2024 trendline.

• MU (Micron Technology Inc): 43:49 – High-probability short; potential 50% overall decline if support breaks.

• WMT (Walmart Inc): 45:16 – Recently broke below & backtested the primary uptrend line & is currently backtesting the 200-day moving averages from below.

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): 46:09 – Downside risk to the primary support zone & price target around 361.30 & the 200-day moving averages, for a drop of about 40% off the recent highs, if hit.

• ASML (ASML Holding NV): 48:30 – Watching for a break of intersectional support; downside target of -37%.

• INTC (Intel Corp): 50:43 –Randy views Intel as a high-probability short following a break of its primary bull market uptrend line.

  • Price Targets: T1 at 99.59 has recently been hit with INTC breaking below that price target/support level today, increasing the odds for a move down to his next two target around 83.40 & the 70ish level, for a potential drop as much as 50% off the recent highs, if his final target is hit.
  • Next price targets are 83.40 & then the intersecting 200-day moving averages, 69.90ish price support & backfill of the April 24th gap, representing a potential 50% overall drop.

• AMAT (Applied Materials Inc): 52:07 – At trendline support; Randy warns of institutional “unwinding” potential.

• CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc): 54:43 – Short target of $101.80 (approx. 30% drop from highs).

• LRCX (Lam Research Corp): 55:23 – Bearish targeting of the 200-day SMA confluence support.

• COST (Costco Wholesale Corp): 55:46 – A brief discussion of  “subscription fatigue” thesis; watch for a break of the $907 level.

• PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc): 56:56 – Rejected at the 200-day moving average despite positive divergence.

• NFLX (Netflix Inc): 57:51 – Pre-earnings analysis; severe long-term downside target of $46.00.

• TMUS (T-Mobile US Inc): 61:55 – Tactical long bounce candidate with 5-10% upside to resistance.

• ISRG (Intuitive Surgical Inc): 63:30 – Mean reversion bounce candidate from price support at $366.

• ADBE (Adobe Inc): 64:23 – Strong positive divergence; targeting the 200-day SMA (approx. 18% upside).

• MDLZ (Mondelez International Inc): 64:58 – Retesting support; neutral stance.

• INTU (Intuit Inc): 65:23 – Extremely oversold; mean reversion trade to the 200-day SMA.

Ticker Symbols Discussed:
SPY, QQQ, TILL, IBM, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, META, TSLA, MU, WMT, AMD, GOOG, ASML, INTC, AMAT, CSCO, LRCX, COST, PLTR, NFLX, TMUS, ISRG, ADBE, MDLZ, INTU

The post Swing Trade Ideas & QQQ Analysis 7-16-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/V1Fm9R2ynQY

In this late-session market update for Wednesday, July 15, 2026, Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart discusses a market currently defined by a two-month-long sideways trading range and aggressive sector rotation. While the major indices like the Nasdaq 100 remain stalled, Phinney highlights a significant divergence where “Mag 8” mega-cap tech stocks are rallying while the semiconductor sector faces selling pressure. He reviews several active trade ideas, emphasizing the importance of patience and adhering to technical support levels in a volatile environment.

Market Indexes & Sector ETFs

• 22:42 Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): The Nasdaq 100 has been in a “sideways slog” for exactly two months. Phinney notes that while the index is flat, internal rotation is quite rapid, with big tech currently propping up the index today while the semiconductors are trading sharply lower.

• 06:25 Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS): Phinney discusses the 10-to-1 reverse split and provides updated price targets for this leveraged inverse ETF as the semiconductor sector hits a consolidation phase.

• 14:51 VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Still trading at key support. Phinney identifies a bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence, suggesting a potential long entry or continued scale-in to a swing position.

• 43:21 Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV): The sector is showing a “failed breakout” from a triple top. Phinney highlights an “island reversal” candle, which is a bearish technical signal.

Individual Securities Covered

• 02:47 Oracle Corp (ORCL): Phinney identifies ORCL at a key support/buy zone. He notes that the stock previously saw an 82% bounce from similar levels and is currently testing its long-term uptrend line from 2020.

• 08:16 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): The stock is currently “dancing” on a BOD (benefit of the doubt) support level. A hard close below this would trigger a sell signal.

• 09:08 Broadcom Inc (AVGO): Recently bounced off its 200-day moving average. Phinney is watching for a break below $1359.50 to signal further downside.

• 09:21 Micron Technology (MU): Phinney notes support between 897–900, with a more significant target at $825. The chart shows a potential head-and-shoulders as well as a bearish rising wedge pattern.

• 11:07 AMD (AMD): Moving sideways and catching support. It needs to hold the $501 level to avoid a breakdown toward $465.

• 11:35 ASML Holding (ASML): Phinney identifies ASML as an objective short on the recent trendline breakdown and backtest.

• 12:49 Intel Corp (INTC): After a failed breakout and sell signal, the stock is riding down to the bottom of its trading range near $99.59.

• 18:21 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): Following a parabolic “buying climax,” gold is holding support. Phinney warns that a breakdown could be a “bear trap” if it recovers quickly, but notes a lack of support below current levels.

• 27:41 Progressive Corp (PGR): This was a completed long trade that hit its third target. Phinney notes the sector is now seeing significant profit-taking.

• 30:59 Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN): A successful counter-trend long trade that yielded a 35% profit. Phinney remains cautious as the stock stays below its 200-day moving average.

• 39:27 Eli Lilly & Co (LLY): Currently coming off a divergent high. Phinney suggests the stock may be at or near the end of its run.

• 40:15 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Showing negative divergence and pulling back to its previous breakout level at $220.44.

• 42:18 CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): Phinney highlights a “beautiful” bearish rising wedge. He is watching for a break below the trendline to trigger a new short trade.

• 43:55 Analog Devices (ADI): Trading at a divergent high; Phinney is monitoring the PPO signal line for a potential breakdown.

• 45:02 Western Digital (WDC): Sitting right on an uptrend line; a move below would be a sell signal.

• 45:07 Seagate Technology (STX): Recently put in a divergent high and is being monitored for a reversal.

• 45:34 Shopify Inc (SHOP): An active short trade that hit three targets. Phinney views the current bounce as a counter-trend move back to the 200-day moving average.

Ticker Symbols Discussed:
ORCL, SOXS, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, ASML, INTC, GDX, GLD, QQQ, PGR, RYAN, XLV, LLY, JNJ, UNH, CRWD, ADI, WDC, STX, SHOP

The post Swing Trade Ideas 7-15-26 appeared first on Right Side Of The Chart. If you have any issues viewing the chart images, video or other content in this post or wish to view any additional comments & replies associated with this post, click on the post title to view on Right Side Of The Chart.