KMB-weekly-Jan-6th

KMB weekly July 7th

An AI-generated summary has been added to that January 6th post, which the link in the first paragraph above will open to, including the timestamp where KMB is covered, as well as the following prediction towards the start of the video, which has so far very much been the case YTD, as we kick off the second half of 2026:

The 2026 Environment [00:03:02]: 2026 is projected to remain heavily a “stockpicker’s market.” Spreading bets through asset allocation across stocks, bonds, crypto, and commodities is emphasized over tracking or holding single indices.

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ZF 120m May 11th

/ZN (or IEF, 10 yr Treasury) offers an objective long entry on this backtest of the downtrend line on the 120-minute chart.

ZN 120m May 11th

/ZB (or TLT, 30-yr T-bond) offers an objective long entry on this backtest of the downtrend line on the 120-minute chart. Basically, the longer the maturity of the bond, the higher the duration, i.e.- how much the price of the bond will move in response to a change in interest rates. As such, the price of the 10 & 30-yr bond tends to rise or fall more or less than the 5-yr note.

ZB 120m May 11th

Also, while US Treasuries & the stock market have been largely moving in tandem recently, typically Treasury bonds will rally during periods of stock market volatility & corrections although the Fed has thrown a major monkey wrench into the financial markets, particularly the bond market, so we’ve seen that historical inverse correlation between stocks & bonds more off than on lately although I do still like the near-to-intermediate-term outlook for Treasury bonds based on the charts as well as part of a diversified portfolio. I still remain longer-term bearish on Treasuries.

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KHC daily June 11th

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Unofficial trade ideas are trade ideas that may or may not list specific stops & exact price targets and may or may not be followed up with. Unofficial trade ideas will only be moved to the Active and Completed Trade categories if they are first published as being re-categorized as an official trade idea.

While the description for the Growth & Income Trade ideas is:

Growth & Income Trades are longer-term swing trade or investment candidates expected to generate an above average dividend yield and capital appreciation. Essentially a subcategory of the Long-term Trade Ideas category, the expected holding period on the Growth & Income Trades is typically several months to a over a year or more.

And the description of a Trade Setup is:

Trade Setups are potential swing trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Trade ideas can be assigned to more than one trade category as this trade, in which case an active swing trader might only target the first price target on BGG, booking profits there (if hit) and moving on to the next trade while a longer-term swing trader, trend trader or longer-term investor, especially someone looking for dividend paying stocks, might consider holding out for the second price target or quite possibly any of the additional potential targets (all marked levels on the daily chart above).
Also, note that both the trade category(ies) and the symbol tag (stock ticker) assigned the trade ideas or any securities that are covered in a front page post on the site are located as hyperlinks just below the post. For example, clicking on the symbol tag, BGG, below this post will load all front page posts (not trading room post, search BGG using the search icon within the trading room) with analysis on BGG.
 

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While a fundamental case for these generator makers was laid out in that previous post, there just wasn’t enough technical evidence to add either of those stocks as official trade ideas. However, with BGG just recently breaking out above a well-defined downtrend line following a large divergent low (i.e.- positive or bullish divergences), the stock now appears to offer an objective entry & is on watch as Trade Setup for both a Long Swing Trade as well as a Growth & Income Trade, as BGG pays a current dividend yield of roughly 6%.

While I might normally just go ahead & add BGG as an Active Trade at this time, with the broad market hitting & so far stopping cold at my upper-most bounce target today (SPY 289), I would prefer to see if the market builds on the current rally off Monday’s lows early next week or if it starts to move impulsively lower, which might indicate that the market is poised for another major leg down. As always; official or unofficial, active trade or trade setup, if you like the setup and it aligns with your own analysis, outlook for the market or you are just looking for trade ideas to add to a diversified & balanced portfolio, I have listed what will be the price targets & maximum suggested stop (if targeting T2) on the chart above.

*The definition for the various trade idea categories (Swing Trades, Long-term Trades, Growth & Income Trades and Unofficial Trade Ideas) can be viewed at the top of each of those respective categories which can be accessed in the sub-menus under Trade Ideas on the main menu at the top of the page. For example, the description for an unofficial trade is:

Unofficial trade ideas are trade ideas that may or may not list specific stops & exact price targets and may or may not be followed up with. Unofficial trade ideas will only be moved to the Active and Completed Trade categories if they are first published as being re-categorized as an official trade idea.

While the description for the Growth & Income Trade ideas is:

Growth & Income Trades are longer-term swing trade or investment candidates expected to generate an above average dividend yield and capital appreciation. Essentially a subcategory of the Long-term Trade Ideas category, the expected holding period on the Growth & Income Trades is typically several months to a over a year or more.

And the description of a Trade Setup is:

Trade Setups are potential swing trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Trade ideas can be assigned to more than one trade category as this trade, in which case an active swing trader might only target the first price target on BGG, booking profits there (if hit) and moving on to the next trade while a longer-term swing trader, trend trader or longer-term investor, especially someone looking for dividend paying stocks, might consider holding out for the second price target or quite possibly any of the additional potential targets (all marked levels on the daily chart above).

Also, note that both the trade category(ies) and the symbol tag (stock ticker) assigned the trade ideas or any securities that are covered in a front page post on the site are located as hyperlinks just below the post. For example, clicking on the symbol tag, BGG, below this post will load all front page posts (not trading room post, search BGG using the search icon within the trading room) with analysis on BGG.

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KHC daily June 3rd

KHC 60-min June 3rd

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KHC daily June 3rd

Although I have not looked into the stability of their dividend & would encourage you to do your own due diligence on the company, at this time the stock is yielding a dividend of 1.60/share for an above-average yield of 5.7% Never buy a stock based on the dividend alone, especially those with unusually high dividends as there is a decent chance that the dividend could be at risk of being cut. Quite often, dividend cuts on a stock are expected and already fully priced in by the market by the time the cut is effected but if not, an unexpected or larger-than-expected cut can cause a sudden & sharp drop in the stock.

With that being said, KHC will be added as an Active Growth & Income Trade idea as well as an Active Long Swing Trade around current levels (~28.12). The sole price target at this time is T1 at 31.53, which is set just below the 31.60 resistance level. Should the charts of KHC and/or the broad market continue to firm up, additional price target might be added around the 33.60 resistance level & possibly the primary downtrend line. The suggested stop is any move below 26.91 (i.e.- a print of 26.90 or lower, should the stock gap down beyond that level) with a suggested beta-adjusted position size of 1.0 (i.e.- a typical position size).

KHC 60-min June 3rd

In addition to the deeply oversold conditions & potential bullish divergences that have been building on KHC (which are not buy signals, merely indications that a trend reversal is likely), one of the reasons for the entry here is what appears to be a potential selling climax on the stock as shown on the 60-minute chart above. A selling climax occurs when a stock that has been in a prolonged downtrend suddenly has a sharp drop on high volume. This is often the result of the last of the weak-handed longs capitulating & throwing in the towel by selling their shares, thereby shifting the supply/demand dymanics in the stock with a more solid base of those holding the shares, many of which have bought the stock during the selling climax and as such, are not remorseful holders with large embedded losses just dying to get out on the first half-decent rally.

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As a potential bottoming play, the stock may still have plenty of room to run although it is rapidly approaching the first resistance/target level, which would be a backfill of Friday’s large gap (added to the second, updated chart below with the first chart being the one posted earlier today in the trading room). In order to get this out there asap, I’m just going to paste my previous comments below & will follow up with any additional comments on BGG & GNRC (Generac Holdings Inc).

I took a starter position in my first of what will likely be several companies that make generators in response to this article that I read over the weekend regarding PG&E’s plans for pre-emptive blackouts after their part in the CA wifefires resulted in their bankruptcy restructuring.
They aren’t the on CA ultility planning to do so going forward & I can only imagine the demand for generators (to keep refridgerators & medical necessary devices running, at a minimum) will spike in the coming months. BGG (Briggs & Stratton) might even be added as an official Growth & Income Trade with a decent dividend yield of 4.11% plus nice potential for captial appreciation/potential bottoming play.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-es-radical-plan-to-prevent-wildfires-shut-down-the-power-grid-11556337671 (article may require a subscription)

Follow-up comments:

GNRC is another generator manufacturer that should benefit from the preemptive blackouts in CA although, from the names that I’ve found so far, BGG appears to have the most upside potential. Still have some more DD to do though & will pass along any others that look compelling.

I also took a starter in GNRC & I continue to research the other generator makers but it takes quite a bit of work. The reason is that many are not publicly traded companies & some that are, like Coleman (Powermate line of generators), Honda, Yamaha, etc.. you find yourself navigating a string of holding companies that lead up to one parent company that have so many other products that even a 10x increase in their generator sales won’t move the needle on the parent company’s stock.

BGG makes lawn mowers, go-cart engines & many other small engines although what I like about them (-besides- (edit) the fact the company is poorly managed), is that in addition to making their own generators, many other companies buy their engines to power the generators they sell under their own label. From what I’ve seen in the past, living in Hurricane Alley nearly my entire life, is that Generac seems to be the leading manufacturer of the higher-end whole-house generator while BGG makes a lot of the budget low-end, portable generators.

To add to those comments, PG&C is not the only California utility company that plans to initiate pre-emptive blackouts going forward. I would also suspect that going forward, we will see some type of subsidy/rebate program at the state and/or federal levels to help residents affected by these blackouts to help offset the cost of purchasing a generator, at least for those that qualify as ‘medically-necessary’. For example, FEMA provided a reimbursement of up to $500 towards the cost of a generator purchase after hurricane Irma hit South Floriday in 2017 for those that lost power and needed the generator to run a medically-necessary device such as a CPAP machine for sleep apnea (which has seen a tremendous rate of growth in recent years), without any income limit requirements.

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TLT daily 2 Dec 10th

The original price target for this trade was T3 at 122.13 with that target eliminated in this post published earlier today in which T2 was revised as the final target. The 8.5% beta-adjust gain was calculated based on the Oct 24th entry price of 114.40 plus the two dividends totaling 0.541534 since that entry, multiplied by the 1.8x overweighted suggested beta-adjusted position size for this trade.

While I believe the odds favor a pullback or substantial consolidation in the coming weeks, it still appears that the intermediate to longer-term outlook for TLT remains bullish and as such, I may add TLT back as another official trade soon if the charts confirm, most likely sometime after the start of the new year. This trade & all associated posts will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives for future reference.

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TLT daily Dec 10th

My expectation is for at least one more thrust back down within this large falling wedge pattern on the TLT weekly chart before a breakout & the next major leg higher. Longer-term traders might opt to ride out any pullbacks or consolidations while collecting the monthly dividends while raising stops to protect profits.Weekly chart below:

TLT weekly Dec 10th

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I was considering revising the final target on this trade to T1 as this is a significant resistance level on TLT where the odds for a reaction are pretty high. However, my definition of a reaction is either a pullback or a period of consolidation (or both) and despite the increased chance that TLT might pullback or trade sideways for a few weeks or even several months around this level, I still like the intermediate-term outlook for long-term treasury bonds and as such, I will leave this trade as an Active Trade for now with the second & third price targets as is.

With that being said, one might consider raising stops to protect profits at this time while active traders might opt to book partial or full profits, possibly re-entering the trade strategically on the next objective entry. Long-term traders, including those that purchased TLT as a Growth & Income Trade and/or for diversification within the portfolio via asset allocation might opt to ride out any relatively minor pullbacks or consolidation periods as the nice thing about holding a bond fund during periods of sideways trading is that you get paid to wait, unlike some non-yielding assets such as commodities or stocks that don’t pay a dividend.

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TLT daily Nov 2nd close

TLT 60-min Nov 4th

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TLT daily Nov 2nd close

Anyone holding TLT on Friday will receive that dividend even if they sell the shares before the payable date. Also, all other things being equal (i.e.- backing out any gains or losses for the day due to natural buying & selling), a stock or ETF will drop in value by the amount of an upcoming dividend on the ex-dividend date.

Based on the entry price of 114.40, the adjusted cost basis for this trade is now 114.125303 (entry price – dividends received). After reviewing the charts on short, intermediate & long-term treasury bonds & yields over the weekend, I am adjusting the suggested to a daily close below 111.72 to reflect the new adjusted basis on this trade. I am also adjusting the stop as I believe the case for a significant & imminent rally in treasuries bonds is even stronger now that it was a when the trade was entered just over a week ago.

Since entry, yields on short-term (5-year, $FVX), intermediate-term (10-year, $TNX) and long-term (30-year, $TYX) US Treasury bonds have all rallied into very significant multi-decade downtrend lines that start all the way back at the peak of interest rates back in 1981. Not only have rates run into long-term downtrend line resistance but they have done so with divergences & overbought conditions that have marked significant tops in the past as shown on the monthly charts below.

The charts above show US Treasury yields, which move inversely to the bond prices so $TYX (30-year yield) down will always equal a directly proportional upside move in the price of the 30-year treasury bond. While the monthly charts can take some time to play out, this 60-minute chart below shows that TLT closed on a backtest of a recently broken downtrend line with bullish divergences forming on the PPO & RSI which could provide the impetus for a near-term rally & possibly lead to an intermediate-term trend reversal.

TLT 60-min Nov 4th

Last but not least, keep in mind that TLT is not a “get rich quick” trade idea that has the potential to provide double-digits in very short order like the recent SOXS trade. While an over-weighted position in Treasury bonds could provide a decent total dollar gain for a swing trade lasting a few weeks or months, TLT can also be used as part of a diversified portfolio taking advantage of the benefits of asset allocation as discussed in this recent video, especially during times of increased volatility coupled with the bearish intermediate-term trend & outlook for equities at this time.

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SAFM daily Oct 31st close

As the weekly & daily charts on Sanderson Farms remain constructive, this dividend-paying stock is on watch for another potential official trade idea. The next objective entry might come on a break above the most recent downtrend line or possibly on a brief undercut & flush-out move down below the 97ish key support level and/or a subsequent recovery back above that level.

Such a wash-out move, if followed by a recovery back above that key support level would have the potential to be a bear trap, with longer-term bullish implications for the stock. As of now, I would prefer to see how both SAFM & the broad market trades so this is only a potential trade setup at this time.

The loss on this trade for those that didn’t book partial or full profits and/or raise stops when T1 was hit, as suggested at the time, was 7.2%. That figure takes into account the 0.32 dividend that was paid out to shareholders of record as of October 2nd, which reduced the cost basis on this trade from the original entry price of 104.91 down to an adjusted basis of 104.59.

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