Before 2020 we had official trades and Randy was as adamant to short QQQ back then as much as he is today. Guess how it all ended?

“”That “all in” level was never hit so the any losses (booked or still open) should not have exceeded the gains from the ‘full position’ unhedged long off the Jan lows as I believe the mid-point of that scale in zone was right about the half-way point for the YTD rally”” – Dont get me wrong but this is precisely what am talking about. Why dont you show us actual positions you are taking or at least tell us how you are sizing your positions. Why are you hiding this? Cos what you are saying now is something like ‘Yeah I took at $10 position shorting the QQQs which i scaled out of but you know I actually took at $100 “full unhedged position” long the QQQs in Jan, so am good”.

From a risk point of you do you ever consider what the options markets are signalling (open interest, implied moves etc)? Do you consider the COT report? Fed balance sheet? Dumb money vs smart money? Simply saying “hey I expect a 6% downside move so I will set my stop loss at 2% up” without any additional insight about what the market expects from some of those resources is shooting in the dark imo. Then if it goes wrong you will say “hey i only bet $2 on it and that too i scaled out of”. Share your position sizes please! and stop losses levels for various points of entry.. Risk management is more important in trading than getting the direction right .. am sure you would agree. People who want to take more aggresive risks than you at least have a benchmark to determine how much more risk they want to take.

One thing I do I agree on is this is all in the past.. but for the future please consider to the feedback we share.. help us become better traders.. not just speculators on direction with hypothetical expectations of RR.

I certainly gave back a nice chunk of the profits on the Q’s & FAAMGs from Q1 by starting to short too early in Q2 & although I was highlighting multiple objective short entries, those were levels where one not already short could short but certainly not where I or anyone should just keep adding to shorts if already at their preferred allotment.

I highlighted my preference of “scaling in” to shorts in a zone & also talked about how QQQ needed to drop back down below certain levels before increasing a swing/trend short to a full position. That “all in” level was never hit so the any losses (booked or still open) should not have exceeded the gains from the ‘full position’ unhedged long off the Jan lows as I believe the mid-point of that scale in zone was right about the half-way point for the YTD rally.

From an R/R perspective, a QQQ short looks even better now than a few weeks ago & this current “short-term” swing trade with only a 5% final target very much has the potential to morph into a longer-term swing/trend trade with 30%+ downside potential.

Finally, at the end of the day, that’s just one single trade or many (or at least should be). Admittedly a tough market since just about the only thing consistently going up all year has been a handful of mega-tech stocks & while that trade will likely collapse under its own weight sooner than later, I will be looking for other opportunities, long & short, in various stocks, sectors, commodities, bonds, etc..

Hi Randy, not that am an initiator of this thread but while I totally agree you recommended going long at the start of the year to game a ‘bear market rally’ and in all fairness I agree you pretty much nailed the bear market market action in 2022 (congrats for that). But you mildly describing eveything since mid March as ‘took profits too early and started shorting the NDX too early’ is just as bad as gaslighting (and I say this respecfully). In truth you recommended staying short the NQ and semis through the most aggresive face rippers we have seen in a long time, with hypothetical stop losses and many recommendations to ‘add on to objective shorts’ numerous times.. In one post you said you were so confident NQ/ SOXX would drop precipitously you could see that move as clearly as you could see your hand in front of your face.. your words not mine. Many of us posted alternate thoughts / questions (including me) indicating the possibility of more bullish action, but I never saw any response or thought given to any ot if. Finally, you exited shorts after NVDA earnings (when NQ moved up 7% in two days and SMH was up over 10%).. only to recommend another short trade soon after.. that one got stopped out too. And now you have recommended another short with a 5% target move.. am sure if this gets taken out you will recommend even another short in short order (no pun intended). Needless to say you will be right sometime.When the NQ was up 35% year-to-date (early-this-wee)k getting a 20-30% drop of here (when it does happen) is also totally healthy bull market action. Now am with you, I think the NQ is so severely over bought, is at a record high comparing with the DOW, the VIX was at the lowest point since Covid., etc etc.. many indicators that are bearish.. but this is what we can see any where for free on youtube to be honest.. From what I learned, trading is about intense risk management (not just hypothetical RR), choosing the most probable trades (not just what seems most profitable) and having the discipline to place capital conservation first before aggresive trade ideas.. quite frankly I dont see much (if any) of this in your analysis. This is what I hope to find in an expert analysis. Instead I see the same charts ( many of which I already recreated) .. just my feedback. Dont get me wrong I appreciate your work and insight.. sometimes.. and wish you the very best.. always.

Please don’t try and gaslight others on this site. I very clearly stated not only covering all shorts & going 100% long at the very start of the year but also over-weighting the $NDX and the big tech/FAAMGs in particular, highlighting AAPL, AMZN, & TSLA as some of my favorite longs right as the new year kicked off & in many posts after that.I clearly stated on several occasions that the big tech stocks looked poised to outperform the market. Here’s a video from Jan 4th (2nd trading day of the year) & many others like it archived on the site stating my bullish outlook and positioning.

https://rightsideofthechart.com/swing-trade-ideas-1-4-23/

I acknowledged on several occassions recently that I took profits too early & then started shorting the $NDX too early but I still believe that FAAMG rally has most likely mostly or completely run its course with the R/R now skewed to the downside, at least in the coming weeks+.

Well here’s how that works: The headlines (news) will follow the charts so while the market & economy seem bullet-proof right now, when the market has fallen 5% & then 10% & then 15%, etc.. the headlines, sentiment, price action, etc.. will become increasingly bearish (bigger down days, rallies getting sold into increasingly sooner, etc..)

As of now, my final target for this QQQ short trade (T3 on the 15m chart) would only be a 5% drop & I may very well be covering any shorts if/when we get there although I may also be sitting tight and adding additional price targets. Too many variables to mention here but one of the big one’s will be the technical posture & price action of the mega tech/FAAMG stocks as well as other key sectors.

Bottom line: IF (a big ‘if’) my call for a 20-30%+ drop pans out, I feel that right around currently levels, not too much higher, is where is will start from as if we go much higher, the case that this has been a bear market rally starts to dissipate.

SOXX and FNG1! indexes both are up over 1.22%

Its a shame, we didn’t get a single buy signal on any of the FAANG and Semis since beginning of this year while entry on anyone could have gave us a very good ROI.

Totally missed it!!!