Comments on: Bullish Sectors, Commodities & Countries (video)

By: Kstellish

Kstellish — Fri, 22 Apr 2016 16:04:35 +0000

Thanks again for this video. I was watching JJG and it looked like it was breaking out but has since pulled back. Is this related to today's broad market reaction or is this a failed breakout? Looking at long term entry.

By: Gaucho

Gaucho — Thu, 21 Apr 2016 12:44:46 +0000

Hi, SLV in the premarket is reaching the T1. Is there any comment about a pullback or is going directly to T2? Regards

By: schooner

schooner — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 15:52:02 +0000

I feel like this is a three dimensional chess game and one of the players — the CBs — also has the ability to change the rules from time to time. I’ve half given up trying to understand the fundamentals because it’s become impossible to differentiate fundamentals from CB actions. With the CBs destroying price signals in markets to some significant degree, it’s impossible at times to know in many instances if there is an increase in final demand or just more liquidity looking for a home. What I’m saying is that i agree with the premise that for the early stage stocks to be regaining their footing there should be a genuine pick ups in economic activity — particularly in China — but we know that stocks move ahead of fundamentals so perhaps the stocks are smelling something out that we can’t quite understand yet. I guess what i’m saying is that, for the most part, I will trade the charts with an understanding that the charts are likely to know something about an incredibly complex equation that i can’t always fathom. There are times when I think I can see something fundamental and then I look to play it, but this is one of those times when I freely admit that I can’t understand the fundamentals that might be at work to drive these sectors. Maybe these are just reversion to the mean trades. That’s entirely possible. Maybe they have limited upside. But for me that’s more than enough to make them interesting. As a quick aside, I just read where the BOJ might double its ETF purchases next week. In a world where CB insanity reigns supreme, who knows what’s real and what’s an illusion. I think we can drive ourselves crazy trying to understand something that is crazy and the best we can do is to trade the charts as we see them. I don’t know that these thoughts are of any value, but that’s what I’m thinking :-)

By: snipertrader

snipertrader — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 12:39:48 +0000

@schooner – I sympathize with your thoughts expressed. It’s a bit of a conundrum I’ve also been thinking thru from as many angles as I can these past few months. They say every new bull market or renewed bull market has it’s leaders and they are not always the same each time around. If we are entering a new bull market ( or re-engaging with the prior one ) to the upside then it would seem logical that new leadership would emerge – perhaps energy/commodities due to how washed out they are. But for them to really have the underpinnings longer term we’d have to see demand really pick up from an industrial complex perspective it seems. Not that fundamentals are the only thing driving the move and fully realize that whether or not fundamentals exists ( especially these days with CB manipulation / involvement to hold things together ) sectors and individuals can and will move just due to liquidity and sentiment. This time around ( unlike in past cycles ) CB’s are in full force out and about firing away their accomodative bullets into the markets and economies. They seem to really be pushing on a string though because at the end of the day what will actually create demand unless they start finding ways to infusing consumers with cash money ( not debt – the demand does not exist for taking on much more debt it seems and that’s one reason as I’ve stated before all the QE which essentially created mountains of reserves on bank books with the FED has not found a way to really make it out into the global economies across the consumer board ). I just did a post about XLF and XSD and expressed some thoughts may tie in with these topics as well you might like to read thru…. good discussion. Let’s keep thinking from all angles on this as things continue to unfold.

By: schooner

schooner — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 02:46:38 +0000

In reply to rsotc.

I’ll echo others — a very useful idea to zero in on best sectors and ideas, and useful to provide a static list aside from the video itself.

I’ve been ruminating a lot in the last couple of days on the strong rotation into basic materials, transports (including shippers), energy, and financials. Don’t ask me to reconcile higher oil prices and higher prices for the Transports. It’s a mystery. But these are typically sectors that need to be strong for a market to move higher. They are the opposite of defensive sectors, which are weakening. It’s usually bullish for these sectors to be doing well — which raises for me the question — is it possible that we are starting a major rotation from tech leadership to industrial/materials leadership? That would go along with your thesis that this is the year for “stuff.” Perhaps we might be entering a major transition in leadership and the oversimplified equation will be long stuff, short tech. Perhaps the divergences will play out with sideways movement in the broad averages while strong “stuff” sectors and financials continue to provide a generally strong tone? Perhaps more than ever we all need to be ignoring the broad averages to some significant degree. You were pretty much saying that in the overall market video you did. What is surprising is that the industrials/metals/miners/energy/financials are not typically sectors that emerge late in a bull market. That’s what I’m wrestling with because if they are re-emerging it implies that we will have clear sailing in the overall sense for some period of time, which simply means that this bull market may yet set some records in length of time that it sustains. Be that all as it may, the focus on leading sectors is where we will hopefully make our money and it’s great that you’re putting more emphasis there. Well done.

By: snipertrader

snipertrader — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 21:44:28 +0000

Nice video and great that you will be devoting time and effort to sector ideas and updates going forward. It was a good suggestion made which you have responded to well. Also very worthwhile addition to provide a static list of the symbols you covered. I know this takes extra time but it’s a meaningful and very useful addition to a video post. Thx.

By: lee1

lee1 — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 19:47:00 +0000

In reply to rsotc. No problem Randy. One other thing if you do not mind, in your videos can you please try to call out the trigger price for the charts you are looking at? I am not always clear as to price break levels which are the buy triggers (e.g. I am not clear as to what the entry trigger price level is for KEX from your latest video). Thanks.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 19:38:00 +0000

In reply to lee1.

Thx for that feeback lee1. You’ll also notice that I manually listed the ETFs that stood out as that video was a bit on the lengthy side. Videos allow me to hit on many more details involved in a trade or my analysis but I realize that some don’t have the time or the ability (e.g.- to play the video along with the audio at work) so I’ll try to summarize what is covered in each video in a brief paragraph or two. I’m also considering adding a page or section on the site which will list any standout sectors, commodities, countries, etc…, both bullish & bearish which I will keep updated as conditions change.

By: lee1

lee1 — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 19:01:30 +0000

Great idea to do this as I too was trying to keep track of what bullish sectors/plays to focus on as there as so many ideas floating around.