Comments on: Analysis of Various Asset Classes 11-19-20

By: dbaldor

dbaldor — Fri, 20 Nov 2020 16:08:10 +0000

Hi Randy, Can you provide an update on coffee? Thanks

By: ds2000

ds2000 — Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:32:43 +0000

The interesting thing about bonds is that they've been in a bull market for 39 years, since 1981, when yields on US Treasuries were up near 15%. Yields now are close to 0%. This is why @rsotc is "adamant" that the outlook for bonds is poor. After all, unless you're convinced that yields are going negative, and significantly so, there is almost no upside left. It's why common sense would suggest that the long trade is over as we prepare for what may be a bear market in bonds. That being said, this reasoning is so ubiquitous that, according to Raoul Pal, the short position on bonds is currently 4 standard deviations from the mean, implying that there is a near unprecedented congestion of shorts. Food for thought.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:03:05 +0000

In reply to Success. Agreed. With that being said, I'll always keep a close eye on the $SPX as well as the 11 sectors that make up the SPX as sometimes we can pick up on some developments taking place 'under the hood' that the charts of the indexes might be masking. The bond market used to provide useful clues to problems (or lack thereof) lurking under the surface for the stock market but the Fed has pretty much destroyed price discovery in the fixed income markets so I take what I see there now with a grain of salt.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 20:58:35 +0000

In reply to Success. Will do.

By: becky

becky — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 20:17:13 +0000

In reply to NickW-UK. It's a common theme among EU brokerages. If you really want $DBA, you can buy a call option on $DBA and exercise it. Nov 20 call at the money comes with no time premium at all, very much the same as buying the shares on the open market.

By: Success

Success — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 19:07:21 +0000

QQQ is the market.
QQQ is the most important daily chart analysis.
Thank you.

By: wilhud

wilhud — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 18:38:07 +0000

I mean who would buy negative yielding bonds?
Deutsche Bank think they’re awesome.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/19/economy/china-negative-yield-bond/index.html

By: Success

Success — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 18:31:16 +0000

please continue with the qqq daily chart analysis. it is very important.

By: becky

becky — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 17:47:53 +0000

$XXII broke above $1.20. Wow!

By: NickW-UK

NickW-UK — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 15:58:46 +0000

Can’t seem to buy DBA from my brokers here in UK, Wisdomtree’s Grains AIGG was the closest I could find.