Well certainly not the Fed & POTUS who think the age-old method of cutting the very short-term Federal Funds rate will bring down long-term rates as it has in the past. That strategy worked great for many years…. in a low to no-inflation environment when the Federal Gov’t wasn’t running wartime deficit spending for the first time the US wasn’t at war. The bond vigilantes continue to check the long-bond & signal US gov’t this level of deficit spending & continue massive fiscal and monetary stimulus with the economy humming along & the stock market making ATH’s is just plain stupid & unsustainable.

Just wait until/if the 30-yr yield starts to approach that multi-decade high it kissed in 2023 & 2025. If that happens (which I believe it will) it will not be a pretty picture (unless one is comfortable shorting equities).

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I can’t believe that EVERYONE is right on rates going up. It just doesn’t happen that way.

Maybe but as of now, $TYX (30-yr yield) has clearly broken out, successfully backtests, & starting to rally off the downtrend line off the May 2025 highs.