March 2017
« Feb  

UWTI Could Run 20-40%

UWTI could run up to the 8.15 level & quite possible the 9.55 area, should my call for a drop in the $USD continue to play out. Such a move would provide gains of about 20% & 40%+ from current levels. I've just taken a starter position & plan to add only on strength and only if/when the 13/33 ema pair signals a bullish cross to indicate that the near-term trend has changed from bearish to bullish.

UWTI 60-minute Nov 19th

UWTI 60-minute Nov 19th


UWTI will be added as an AGGRESSIVE long trade idea at current levels (trading at 6.81 now) with the first & sole price target at this time at 8.10 (5 cents below resistance). Should the charts begin to firm up, I will likely add an additional price targets just below the 8.68 & 9.55 resistance levels. There are several energy stocks setting up bullishly that I might also add as unofficial trade ideas in the Trading Room later today.

Nov 19, 2015 10:51am|Categories: Completed Trades - Long, Gold & Commodities|Tags: , |11 Comments


  1. Profile gravatar of jupiter
    jupiter November 19, 2015 11:05 am at 11:05 am

    What is your opinion on going long some of the major integrated oils i.e. XOM?

  2. Profile gravatar of alicn120
    alicn120 November 19, 2015 11:13 am at 11:13 am

    Thank you. I should have waited for your call. My average price is your T1 target and looking for T2 for the profit.

  3. Profile gravatar of rsotc
    rsotc November 19, 2015 11:41 am at 11:41 am

    Regarding the likes of big oil, like XOM & CVX, I’d prefer to wait until the daily & weekly charts of crude oil have really firmed up & indicate that a lasting bottom is likely in place or at least in the final stages of forming. I’ve actually been long CVX in a long-term account since late Aug & although the run off the lows was decent, I think the major oil stocks might be ok to take some starter positions as long-term trades/investments, especially for those looking for dividend paying stocks but as far a quick hit & run swing trading opps, I think there’s a lot more bang for your buck trading the 3x leveraged crude & energy sector etfs (ERX, GUSH, etc..) as well as some of the smaller oil & gas stocks, especially in the exploration & production arena (like the recently stopped out WTI, which still looks poised to run on a break of that downtrend line).
    With that being said, my trading style falls on the more aggressive side so if crude prices rise, then the big oil stocks should move up as well & they have a lot less volatility than the small energy E&P stocks.

  4. Profile gravatar of astoria26
    astoria26 November 19, 2015 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm

    Thanks for the chart Randy! But I see you’re mocking up UWTI (3x leveraged) instead of the underlying USOIL chart. Do you have the corresponding numbers on the USOIL chart?

  5. Profile gravatar of rsotc
    rsotc November 19, 2015 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm

    By USOIL do you mean either the charts of the ETPs USO or OIL? If so, I do have the roughly corresponding levels marked up on my USO chart but the reason that I just posted UTWI is because this trade is based off the intraday (60-minute) time-frame with the expectation that either the 8.10 profit target or the suggest stop just below the recent lows (which I posted in the trading room shortly after this front page post) will be hit within a week or two and if so, the decay from the 3x leverage will be minimal. With that being said, here is my 60-minute chart of USO with some roughly comparable resistance levels/targets.

    View post on

  6. Profile gravatar of astoria26
    astoria26 November 19, 2015 1:17 pm at 1:17 pm

    Thanks Randy! Yes, that’s what I was afraid of, the decay, so I’ve been watching the “USOIL” chart in Tradingview, I think it goes by other symbols as well: “$WTIC” in Stockcharts, or USO is comparable too, all non-leveraged. Kinda bummed that NUGT is jumping so high due to weaker dollar today, but oil doesn’t move! Should’ve listened to you and bought NUGT!

  7. Profile gravatar of rsotc
    rsotc November 19, 2015 2:08 pm at 2:08 pm

    Thanks. I just started playing around with the charting platform on TradingView & wasn’t aware they used that ticker for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI or $WTIC on as you said).
    Here’s my thoughts: So far, the breakout in the EUR/USD is pretty much text-book: A breakout, followed by a successful backtest of the downtrend line & followed by an impulsive move higher from there with EUR/USD so far making a very distinct series of higher highs & higher lows since yesterday afternoon (on the intraday charts). That’s the bullish case and in a perfect world, free of central bank manipulation, I would put very high odds that this breakout sticks with the dollar continuing to fall against the euro.
    On the flip-side, this is anything but a free market, with unprecedented intervention by the global central banks which has a clear & nearly immediate impact on currencies. Hence, if this breakout fails just as it appears to be getting some legs, it would be far from the first time the CB’s have stepped in to keep the euro down against the dollar. All I can do is trade the charts as they develop so for now, the charts indicate more downside in the $USD which should translate into higher gold & oil prices if that happens (US stocks should fall along with the dollar, as the correlation between the two has also been pretty high recently as well).

  8. Profile gravatar of astoria26
    astoria26 November 19, 2015 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm

    By central bank intervention, I’m assuming you mean that ECB is expected to announce more QE soon, in about 2 weeks? Just in anticipation of that, I think the dollar will start to rise again a few days before, which gives us a 1.5 week window for oil to get off its butt and move higher for a nice Thanksgiving rally!

  9. Profile gravatar of rsotc
    rsotc November 19, 2015 3:21 pm at 3:21 pm

    I wasn’t referring to that or any other anticipated action by the Fed or ECB. For the most part, they’ve already used up all the arrows in their quiver & have resorted to jawboning to influence the currency markets although they can always conduct open market operations whenever they want, such as stepping in here to bust up this technical breakout in the euro. Again, I can’t trade by always second guessing as to what might happen or else I might as well just start throwing darts to decide which way to position on a trade. For now, the breakdown in the dollar looks solid so I’ll trade it according until/unless the charts tell me otherwise. Add to that the breakout in the mining stocks were the primary reason for the trade with the breakdown in the dollar as confirmation (I rarely trade currencies, instead just charting them to confirm or refute my analysis of dollar sensitive assets such as the gold mining stocks).

  10. Profile gravatar of astoria26
    astoria26 November 19, 2015 4:01 pm at 4:01 pm

    Gotcha. I have a decent handle on charting, but I’m not a pro by any means so I still rely more on news to influence my trades rather than charts. I’m learning a lot from your charts though, so thank you and keep up the great work! 🙂

  11. Profile gravatar of rsotc
    rsotc November 19, 2015 4:11 pm at 4:11 pm

    astoria26- I feel pretty strong about the fact that news headlines (along with all other data that falls under the scope of Fundamental Analysis such as earnings growth, valuations metrics, etc..) is really only useful to investing IMO whereas trading (day trading, swing trading, trend trading, etc…) relies almost exclusively on Technical Analysis (charting). If you trade primarily by reacting to headlines, you’re almost certain to fall into the “buy the rumor, sell the news” trap as most news is already priced into a stock before it is disseminated to the general public. I will say, however, that news-induced pops & drops on a stock can be traded very profitably if aligned/confirmed by the charts. Best of luck! – RP


Comments are closed.