Mar 222013

These are the daily charts of the ten largest components of the Russell 2000 Index (posted in descending order by weighting).  Rarely have I even seen such screamingly bearish patterns on nearly every top component in a major, diversified index such as this.  Of course, these stocks are also extremely overbought on the daily, weekly and even monthly time frames.  Personally, I’m expecting much more than the run-of-the-mill 3-5% pullback that most pundits on the street are calling for.  As taking screen captures and annotating 10 chart takes a considerable amount of time, my notes on the charts are minimal but I believe that most of these patterns speak clearly.

Many of these charts have some horizontal or uptrend lines drawn below current prices which would act as downside targets, for those interested in shorting or even going long any of these stocks on a pullback (the former being my preference).  Although some of the stock have just recently broken below support, typically a key uptrend line, many are still within the patterns with some towards the top of the patterns/trendlines (resistance) while others are close to the lower uptrend lines (support).  Therefore, my short on the index at this time is what I refer to as an anticipatory trade (entering the trade early in anticipation of a likely breakdown).  However, more conservative or conventional traders might choose to wait until the majority of these stocks have broken below the support levels shown on these charts before taking a full position.

Feb 252013

In reviewing the Active Short Trades category, the following trades will be removed:

FCH- Exceeded the 5.50 suggested stop level shortly after it was suggested in the last video update on Jan 23rd.  For anyone still in this trade, I think that the odds are still good for at least T1 to be hit soon but I’m trying to move out some of the less attractive trades ideas on the site to make room for some new trade ideas so FCH will be moved to the Completed Trades Category.

GMCR- Stopped out as per the suggested criteria back on Jan 2nd.

MCD- Stopped out on Feb 1st as per the suggested criteria.

PCYC- Hit the first target back on Nov 5th for a quick 20.7% gain and then bounced well beyond entry, far exceeding any reasonable stop (this trade did not list specific stops).

SOCL- This one was posted with very vague entry criterion and without any suggested targets or stops back on May 31st of 2012 and basically fell off my radar and should have been removed earlier.  As the chart isn’t very clear, I will consider the trade stopped out and move it the Completed Trades category.

The main reason that I am posting these removed trades is to so that every trade, winner or loser, that is posted on the site will be archived indefinitely for future reference under the Completed Trades category.  (each trade related post is assigned one or more symbol tags which are used to categorize all posts).  Note:  There are a few more Active Trades that have recently exceeded their suggested stop levels which I may or may not remove this week.  I will leave them as Active Trades for now as their charts still look very constructive but I do plan to update those trades asap along with some of the existing trade ideas that are still offering very objective entries.

Dec 212012

I’ve received a few comments lately regarding the strength of the Russell 2000 (small caps) so I made this video to share my thoughts on the index.  I also covered the charts on the following components of that index in order to get a better feel on where the index itself is likely to go from here.  Many of these stocks are either active or recently completed trades on the site so for those who wish to skip forward in the video, here’s a list of the charts in the order discussed:




Nov 052012

i have been away from the computer all day and will not be able to make anymore posts until later this evening.  in checking in quickly, i see that PCYC was down big today to hit (and exceed) the first target for a 20.7% gain (from entry to the T1 level at 48.50).  consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering your stops, depending on your trading plan.  my preferred swing target on this trade is currently T3.  there may be other trades that have hit targets, stops, or triggered entries today but i’ll have to go over the rest of the active trades and setups later this evening.

Oct 302012

The biotech sector remainS one of my favorite short trade ideas and I’ve put together this video covering the charts of the 14 biotech stocks that I posted on October 21st as my favorite individual shorts in the sector (click here to view that post).  Also discussed are the IBB, my preferred ETF for the sector as well as a few alternative etf’s (PBE, XBI, BBH, etc…).


Oct 222012

actually, i already had a position on this one going into today buy i am adding PCYC as an official active short trade idea here as it is starting to crack below this sub-uptrend line and looks to be offering an objective entry.  unfortunately, they just finished repairing my internet service so i’ve been unable to put together the video overview of the biotech trades that i mentioned last night.  therefore, i will try to post some static charts on those trades that look like objective entries around current levels, starting with this daily chart of PCYC.  targets and suggested stop listed on the chart.  T2 is the rising primary uptrend line while T1, T3, & T4 are horizontal support levels.

Oct 212012

one of my favorite sectors to short at this time is the biotech sector.  in fact, there are so many nice charts that i really can’t pick any one or two favorites (although the recently triggered BIIB active trade is one of my top picks).  therefore, i will try to put together a video covering the trade ideas in that sector asap, hopefully tomorrow.  i went thru the charts of all 116 components of the IBB (iShares Biotechnology Index Fund ETF) and here is list of some of the best looking shorts in the group, as well as two longs that stood out, for those preferring long-side trade or maybe wanting to hedge against short position in the sector:


the two most potentially bullish looking stocks in the sector that stood out to me were SVNT (bull-flagging on the daily time frame) and ITMN (broke above a daily downtrend on thursday and re-tested friday). again, i’ll try to do a video overview of these chart as that would be much more effective and less time consuming than annotating & posting all 16 charts.  however, for those preferring the relative safety of trading etf’s vs. individual stocks (especially the high-beta, higher risk biotechs), here’s the IBB daily chart, showing a very clear breakdown of it’s bearish rising wedge pattern on friday.  you can also view the holdings of the IBB and their respective weighting by clicking here.  the fact that that six largest holdings were all among my favorite short setups out of the 116 (equity) holdings makes a short of the diversified etf that much more attractive IMO.  IBB will be considered an active trade at the open tomorrow (monday morning) although one might consider shorting 1/2 position and waiting to add the second half on either a re-test of the wedge or if/when the broad markets ($SPX & $DWC) break below the 1420 & 14,830 levels, respectively.