Aug 132013
 

I’ve spent some time in updating both the Trade Setups category as well as the Active Trades category.  Trade Setups are trade ideas that are either currently offering an objective entry, such as an active long trade that has pulled back to support, for example.  Stocks or ETF’s that are setting up in a bullish or bearish technical pattern but have not yet triggered an entry fall into this category as well.  As such, trade ideas are often assigned more than one category as they are not mutually exclusive.  A description of each category can be found at the top of the page when selecting those sub-categories under “Trading & Investment Ideas” on the top menu bar of the site.  All completed trades, whether successful (one or more price targets hit) or unsuccessful (stopped out or removed early) are archived indefinitely under the Completed Trades category.

The following trade ideas will be removed from the Active Trades category.  About half of these trades were successful, such as VHI, which hit it’s second price target on June 19th for a 19.7% gain, continuing lower to a 30% gain just three days later but then reversing shy of the third & final target, moving sharply higher since & triggering any logical stops.  The other half of these trades did not reach a profit target and either exceeded their suggested stops or no longer look very attractive from a R/R perspective.

BAC, ELLI, FDO, FL, IACI, MW, OCN, IWM, VHI

Apr 032013
 

Here are the previous and updated charts to the remaining 5 of the top 10 largest components in the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT).  The previous charts were from the original post made on March 22nd.  The first 5 charts were updated yesterday afternoon.

As always, this string of charts can be easily navigated by clicking on the first one to expand, then moving your cursor anywhere towards the right of center on the chart then clicking to advance to the next chart.  To zoom in or out, simply use the scroll wheel on your mouse or click, hold and drag the shaded triangle with dots in the bottom right corner of each expanded chart.

Mar 222013
 

These are the daily charts of the ten largest components of the Russell 2000 Index (posted in descending order by weighting).  Rarely have I even seen such screamingly bearish patterns on nearly every top component in a major, diversified index such as this.  Of course, these stocks are also extremely overbought on the daily, weekly and even monthly time frames.  Personally, I’m expecting much more than the run-of-the-mill 3-5% pullback that most pundits on the street are calling for.  As taking screen captures and annotating 10 chart takes a considerable amount of time, my notes on the charts are minimal but I believe that most of these patterns speak clearly.

Many of these charts have some horizontal or uptrend lines drawn below current prices which would act as downside targets, for those interested in shorting or even going long any of these stocks on a pullback (the former being my preference).  Although some of the stock have just recently broken below support, typically a key uptrend line, many are still within the patterns with some towards the top of the patterns/trendlines (resistance) while others are close to the lower uptrend lines (support).  Therefore, my short on the index at this time is what I refer to as an anticipatory trade (entering the trade early in anticipation of a likely breakdown).  However, more conservative or conventional traders might choose to wait until the majority of these stocks have broken below the support levels shown on these charts before taking a full position.

Mar 212013
 

The OCN short is up 11% since the recently posted backtest/add-on and still has plenty of downside left before reaching it’s price target (first and final).  I’ve included a 4 hour chart along with the updated daily chart below.  The 4 hour chart highlights a nice ascending & slightly contracting channel.  A break below this pattern will likely be the catalyst for a move down to the one and only price target (29.25) but also realize that support IS support, until broken.  Therefore, as this trade is already up nearly 11% from the original entry and up exactly 11% since the second posted entry or add-on level, this would be an objective area to book partial or full profits.  One could also take a new short entry or add on to an existing position on a break below the 4-hour pattern.  My preference and own plan is to hold out for T1 but I did want to point this support level out to those in the trade.  Updated daily & 4 hour charts below:

Mar 112013
 

OCN daily 2OCN looks like an objective add-on or new short entry here as prices have turned down after a recent successful backtest of these dual intersecting trendlines preceded by the recent primary uptrend line breakdown.  Suggested stop over 43 area.

Feb 202013
 

OCN dailyOCN is just slightly trading below this uptrend line that I’ve been tracking for a while.  I will consider any move below today’s low of 39.60 for a short entry trigger.  As of now, my sole and likely final target is 29.25 with a suggested stop on a move above 42.10.

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