Apr 212013
 

The following long trades exceeded their previous suggested stop parameters last week and will be removed from the Active Trades Category:

AAPL- Printed a weekly close below the bottom of the support zone on Friday.

EXM-  Exceeded both the suggested stop level of 0.72 on Friday.

NM- Fell below the 4.12 suggest stop level early last week.

The JOUT long still looks fine for now and the following Active Long Trades or Long Setups will be updated under separate posts soon:  HL, HMY, CVU, XSD, PEIX.

Admin note:  For those receiving post notifications by email, we are still working on restoring the feature to select or deselect specific post categories (e.g.- short trade setups, completed trades, market analysis,etc…). We don’t have a firm ETA on the fix yet but hope to have it restored by the end of the week.  The RSS feed button will also be restored soon as well for those who prefer to follow the blog posts in a reader.

Apr 112013
 

NM daily 6NM has been consolidating around the first target area since first hitting T1 for a 13.2% gain back on March 8th.  Perfectly normal behavior considering the recent run but consider setting a stop on any move below the 4.12 area.

Mar 252013
 

As my kids are on Spring Break this week, I plan to spend some quality time with them and as such, the posts will be on the light side.  I just turned on the computer for the day and I’m not in the least bit surprised to see such a sharp intraday reversals (both of them) so far.  About the only surprise was the fact that the US markets actually managed to gap up on the Cyprus deal steal, completely ignoring the potential ripple effects such outright theft of customer’s bank deposits may have throughout all the other European & possibly non-European countries with precarious fiscal conditions. I’ll check back in after the close today and will share anything that I come across that looks compelling.

The risk/reward favors being short or in cash at this time IMO.  I was “this” close to suggesting to book full profits the two long-side shipping stock trades (NM & EXM) on the early morning pop on Friday but regrettably did not.  NM is still very profitable but has pulled back back to the first target (T1) area which is now support so for those still long, consider a stop not too far below that level.  The EXM long has given back some very substantial gains from it’s intraday highs on Friday but is still up 5.6% from entry (0.88 vs. current price of 0.93), so if long this one, make sure to have the appropriate stop in place according to your trading plan.  I would continue to suggest being very selective on any new long positions and booking profits or at least make sure to protect gains by raising stops.  I have several emails in my inbox from followers of the site which I will reply to later today.  FWIW, I think this current intraday bounce which has taken the markets back to almost flat on the day looks to be about as good an opportunity to reduce some long exposure or add short exposure (or hedges) as we might get for a while.

Mar 212013
 

NM daily 5NM has impulsively broken out of a bull flag consolidation/continuation pattern which formed after hitting the first target.  As there is a thin zone between T1 & T2, this opens the door for a potentially quick move up to T2 (final target).

Mar 082013
 

NM daily 4NM has hit the first target of 4.30 for a 13.2% gain from entry.  Although I have my concerns about a pending pullback in the broad markets, this chart still looks constructive at this time.  Remember, I have been setting the prices targets below the expected reversal areas as to help assure a fill so NM could easily push a little higher to the resistance level shown on the chart (4.40ish area).  Given the short-term extended nature of the stock, I’d say the odds favor a pullback soon but if NM can clearly take out that resistance level, it will have entered a very thin zone (as shown on the volume at price histogram) which could bring the stock to the 2nd and final target rather quickly.  For those wishing to hold any or all of their position, a suggested stop level is hard to advise as the next decent support level is all the way down around the 4.00 area.  I will keep this trade as active for now but might decide to close it early depending on how things look next week.

Mar 062013
 

NM daily 3Besides the miners (mentioned in the previous post) one of the sectors that will soon likely play a potentially powerful game of catch-up (assuming that the broad market continues to move higher over the next few weeks+) is the shipping index.  As of now, the only shipping trade idea on the site is the NM long trade, which triggered an entry on the break above this large triangle pattern a few weeks ago.  For those in the trade, which is currently up about 8% from entry (breakout), note that NM has now reached that previous reaction high from Nov 6th and may or may not pause or pullback on this first attempt at that level.  Regardless, the trade still looks good longer term and my current preferred target is T2.  I would also consider moving stops up to breakeven at this point, assuming an entry on or around the breakout level (3.80ish).

Feb 212013
 

NM daily 2The NM long is currently backtesting the top of the large triangle pattern that it recently broke out from, triggering a long entry.  Normally, I might highlight this as an objective add-on or entry opportunity but with the broad market recently triggering some longer-term sell signals, I’d rather just hold off on adding to NM at this point in time.  Stops remain on a move below 3.60 but there’s nothing wrong with using a more aggressive stop to minimize losses, especially if you have a large net long exposure to the market right now.

Feb 192013
 

NM dailyThe NM long trade, which was first posted as a setup on Jan 23rd, has not only made a sustained breakout above the downtrend line (criteria for the long entry) but has also cleared a minor horizontal resistance level today and as such, this trade is still offering an objective entry around current levels.  The one thing missing from this breakout is a notable increase in volume. Therefore, due to the unimpressive volume post-breakout combined with the volatile price swings of this sub $5 stock, consider using smaller than usual position size on NM if you took (or take) the trade.  Also note that I have slightly adjusted the price targets since the previous chart as to better reflect the preferred exit points.  T1 is my preferred target at this time.  Suggest stop under 3.60 assuming an average entry price around 3.80.

Jan 232013
 

NM is a shipping stock that might set sail if it can make a sustained breakout above this large triangle pattern (shown on the 2-day period chart below).  The weekly chart shows that in mid Sept, prices broke above a longer-term downtrend line dating back to the 2007 bull market highs and prices have been back-testing that trendline since.  My preference would be to see at least 1.5x average volume on any intraday breakout of the daily/2-day triangle pattern or solid close above but to keep it simple, NM will trigger a long entry on a break above of the daily/2-day pattern.  Targets marked on chart, stops TBD upon entry.  I would consider beta-adjusting this position down to about 0.5 to 0.7 if you decide to take it (with 1.0 being your average position size).

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