Apr 212013

The following long trades exceeded their previous suggested stop parameters last week and will be removed from the Active Trades Category:

AAPL- Printed a weekly close below the bottom of the support zone on Friday.

EXM-  Exceeded both the suggested stop level of 0.72 on Friday.

NM- Fell below the 4.12 suggest stop level early last week.

The JOUT long still looks fine for now and the following Active Long Trades or Long Setups will be updated under separate posts soon:  HL, HMY, CVU, XSD, PEIX.

Admin note:  For those receiving post notifications by email, we are still working on restoring the feature to select or deselect specific post categories (e.g.- short trade setups, completed trades, market analysis,etc...). We don't have a firm ETA on the fix yet but hope to have it restored by the end of the week.  The RSS feed button will also be restored soon as well for those who prefer to follow the blog posts in a reader.

Mar 252013

As my kids are on Spring Break this week, I plan to spend some quality time with them and as such, the posts will be on the light side.  I just turned on the computer for the day and I'm not in the least bit surprised to see such a sharp intraday reversals (both of them) so far.  About the only surprise was the fact that the US markets actually managed to gap up on the Cyprus deal steal, completely ignoring the potential ripple effects such outright theft of customer's bank deposits may have throughout all the other European & possibly non-European countries with precarious fiscal conditions. I'll check back in after the close today and will share anything that I come across that looks compelling.

The risk/reward favors being short or in cash at this time IMO.  I was "this" close to suggesting to book full profits the two long-side shipping stock trades (NM & EXM) on the early morning pop on Friday but regrettably did not.  NM is still very profitable but has pulled back back to the first target (T1) area which is now support so for those still long, consider a stop not too far below that level.  The EXM long has given back some very substantial gains from it's intraday highs on Friday but is still up 5.6% from entry (0.88 vs. current price of 0.93), so if long this one, make sure to have the appropriate stop in place according to your trading plan.  I would continue to suggest being very selective on any new long positions and booking profits or at least make sure to protect gains by raising stops.  I have several emails in my inbox from followers of the site which I will reply to later today.  FWIW, I think this current intraday bounce which has taken the markets back to almost flat on the day looks to be about as good an opportunity to reduce some long exposure or add short exposure (or hedges) as we might get for a while.

Mar 082013

NM daily 4NM has hit the first target of 4.30 for a 13.2% gain from entry.  Although I have my concerns about a pending pullback in the broad markets, this chart still looks constructive at this time.  Remember, I have been setting the prices targets below the expected reversal areas as to help assure a fill so NM could easily push a little higher to the resistance level shown on the chart (4.40ish area).  Given the short-term extended nature of the stock, I'd say the odds favor a pullback soon but if NM can clearly take out that resistance level, it will have entered a very thin zone (as shown on the volume at price histogram) which could bring the stock to the 2nd and final target rather quickly.  For those wishing to hold any or all of their position, a suggested stop level is hard to advise as the next decent support level is all the way down around the 4.00 area.  I will keep this trade as active for now but might decide to close it early depending on how things look next week.

Mar 062013

NM daily 3Besides the miners (mentioned in the previous post) one of the sectors that will soon likely play a potentially powerful game of catch-up (assuming that the broad market continues to move higher over the next few weeks+) is the shipping index.  As of now, the only shipping trade idea on the site is the NM long trade, which triggered an entry on the break above this large triangle pattern a few weeks ago.  For those in the trade, which is currently up about 8% from entry (breakout), note that NM has now reached that previous reaction high from Nov 6th and may or may not pause or pullback on this first attempt at that level.  Regardless, the trade still looks good longer term and my current preferred target is T2.  I would also consider moving stops up to breakeven at this point, assuming an entry on or around the breakout level (3.80ish).

Feb 212013

NM daily 2The NM long is currently backtesting the top of the large triangle pattern that it recently broke out from, triggering a long entry.  Normally, I might highlight this as an objective add-on or entry opportunity but with the broad market recently triggering some longer-term sell signals, I'd rather just hold off on adding to NM at this point in time.  Stops remain on a move below 3.60 but there's nothing wrong with using a more aggressive stop to minimize losses, especially if you have a large net long exposure to the market right now.