Oct 312013
 

After hitting (and exceeding) the first target on the large July 26th gap down, the EXPE short trade went on to move above the previously suggested stop level (slightly above T1) and found resistance not too far above. However, the stock made a large gap higher today & as such, will be removed from the Active Trades category.  As the chart still looked constructive with EXPE finding resistance (twice) at the 54.40 area, I left it on as an Active Trade and am still short the stock in one account as well.  My plan for EXPE will be to place a stop just above the 59.76 level as per my usual strategy when caught on the wrong side of a gap (which I’ve posted about several times in the past).  Basically, that strategy involves waiting a few minutes after the open & then placing the stop slightly above the initial reaction high within the first 5 minutes or so of trading as most order imbalances are cleared out by then.  EXPE will be removed from the Active Trade list as the technical picture is now unclear. Updated daily & 1 minute charts below:

Aug 072013
 

I spent some time pouring over the charts last night looking for trade ideas.  In doing so, I came up with numerous candidates, both long and short.  Some of these trade ideas are already listed as Active Trades on the site and/or Trade Setups while many are not.

I’m going to start with the short trades here & plan to follow up with some of the Long Trade Ideas soon.  Some of these trades are currently offering objective short entries at current levels while others are still setting up in bearish chart patterns, awaiting a formal breakdown or sell trigger.  I will post charts on as many of these as time & resources on the site permit.  However, web traffic to the site continue to grow, the capacity of the web-hosting resources are being stretched and we will soon be forced to migrate the site to a more powerful or dedicated web-hosting server.  Until then, I will have to limit the number of posts send via email notification to remain under the current email throttling limit of 750/hour. You may have also noticed a few instances where the site was down over the last few months, the result of overload on the server.  Both issues will be resolved soon via migrating the site to a more powerful server.

Here are some (but not all) of the short trade ideas that are either offering an objective entry (denoted with an asterisk) or are setting up in a bearish pattern, awaiting an objective short entry such as a breakdown or backtest of recently broken support:

PAA*, SIRI*, ADP, SHW*, MIC*, TSCO, CREE, CRM*, V*, LL, DPZ, JBHT*, HTZ*, HPQ, OSTK*, M*, SPWR, SHLD, EXPE*

As there are quite a few charts that I plan to update throughout the day, the new post email notification feature may be suppressed on some of the trade setups posted today.   If so, you will receive a brief summary at the end of the day listing all new charts that were posted.  Thank you for your patience & understanding in this matter.

Jul 262013
 

Here are the updated daily & weekly charts of EXPE.  For those new to the site, keep in mind that I will often list different targets for the same trade on different time frames.  I do this because there are many different trading styles and even I use an eclectic style of trading that adapts to changing market conditions and/or my engagement of the market at time.  For example, in a choppy, consolidating market, I might prefer a trading style focused largely on the intraday charts using a very active, short-term trading style targeting relatively shallow, quick profits (aka- hit-n-run).  When the market is clearly trending or if I am taking a partial break from the 10+ hours a day sitting in a chart staring at charts, which is essential to prevent trader burnout IMO, I will employ a less active swing trading strategy utilizing larger stop allowances, larger price targets and holding periods typically measure in weeks to months, vs. hours to days.

With that being said, EXPE has been an active short trade since March 21st with targets listed on the weekly chart, for long-term swing and/or trend traders as well as separate targets on the daily chart for the more typical swing traders.  EXPE went on to hit the first weekly target for an 11.2% gain on the week of June 7th.  That target was the primary uptrend line which makes up the bottom of a large rising wedge pattern.  Today prices have clearly broken below that support level which now sharply increases the odds of the 2nd & final weekly target being hit.

Today’s gap also puts us just below the first target (T1) on the daily chart and as long as prices remain below that level, the odds for a move down to the 2nd target (T2 at 40.00) are increased.  Note that the final target on the daily chart, T2 at 35.75, is the same as the final target on the weekly chart.  Conventional swing traders might consider lowering stops to just above 51 in order to protect profits while longer-term traders might give EXPE a little more room.

Jul 262013
 

I had mistakenly omitted the EXPE active short from the list of trades that have just recently hit their first profit target.  I have several updated charts to post, including EXPE which is trading down 25% to just below the first target of 50.55 but the site is experiencing an issue with my web hosting company that is preventing the upload of any charts or images to the site.  We hope to have this issue resolved soon but until then, I just wanted to give a heads up on the EXPE trade as well as my thoughts.

For those in the trade that have not yet booked any profits today, keep in mind that support, once broken, becomes resistance.  My target levels are almost always key support levels where I believe a reaction (bounce or consolidation) is likely once prices approach it but in the case of a trade like EXPE, where the stock made a large gap down to the T1 level and has since traded below that level since the open, I will often hold off booking any profit unless prices make a solid move back above T1 (resistance).  Even if my initial plan was to take partial or full profits at T1, now that support level has been taken out, is becomes resistance.  Therefore, break of support not only opens the door for the next target (T2) being hit but it also allow me to place a relatively tight stop not far above the T1 level, helping to lock in most profits up to that point but also allowing for the possibility of additional gains should the stock continue lower to the next target.  As soon as the chart image uploading feature on the site is restored I’ll post an updated chart of EXPE as well as some of the other trades that have recently hit their first profit target.

Jun 122013
 

EXPE was added as an Active Short Trade on March 21st and as this updated daily chart shows, the stock has been stair-stepping lower since then on these “micro-uptrend line” breaks.  Zooming out to the updated weekly chart, EXPE hit the first target (weekly uptrend line) last week for a 11.2% gain.  Whether on not we bounce here, my preferred target on this trade is the weekly second target (T2) at 35.75.  Remember, in the previous post, I listed two separate sets of targets to accommodate both short-term, more active traders (the daily chart targets) as well as longer-term swing traders (the weekly chart targets).  Regardless of which category you fall into, one should always pay close attention to the technicals on various time frames for your trades.

The next sell signal (i.e.- new short-entry or add-on) will be on a solid break or close below the weekly uptrend line.  More active traders might use that “micro-trendlines” on the daily frame to micro-manage their position.  Updated daily & weekly charts:

Mar 212013
 

I am adding EXPE back as an Active Short Trade here around the 62 level.  EXPE was recently a short trade that hit the first target for a 9% gain back in late Oct and then bounced and was moved to the Completed Trades category.  I also mentioned that I still liked the pattern and that longer-term traders could give the trade a little more room as I might add EXPE back as another short trade soon.  Based on these updated weekly and daily charts, I think that the stock is now offering an objective entry for a potentially long-term swing short trade.  Longer-term traders might choose to focus on the two targets shown below on the weekly chart while shorter-term or more active traders might prefer to target any or all of the levels on this daily chart.  Stops should be set according to which target(s) one prefers using at least a 3:1 R/R ratio.  Those targeting only T1 could also consider a stop not too far above the recent highs, maybe around the 68.50 area. Daily & weekly charts:

Jan 072013
 

In updating the trade ideas on the site, the following trades will be removed from the Active Short Trades category.  These trades have either hit one or more profit targets, exceeded their suggested (or any reasonable) stop criteria, or based on the technicals, these trades no longer offer a very attractive risk/reward profile.  Also note that there are a few short trades that have exceeded their suggested stop(s) but still look attractive and as such, will remain as active trades for now.  I will update those charts on an individual basis asap.

Continue reading »

Oct 262012
 

EXPE is another active short that’s up big on earnings.  however, this trade hit T1 yesterday for a 9% gain, allowing a chance to book partial or full profits.  personally, i am still short the stock and still favor T3 on this trade.  entry price on this short was 55.71 and the stock is currently trading at 57.68 so it’s only down about 2 pts, or less than 4% from entry (regardless of today’s big pop).

although i still think this trade has a good chance of playing out, one might consider a stop somewhat over the sept 21st reaction high of 60.29.  i’m also considering adding to my position today depending on the price action of the stock as well as the broad market.

Oct 092012
 

EXPE looks like an objective short at current levels as it has broken below this rising channel.  daily & weekly charts below:

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