Apr 212013

The following long trades exceeded their previous suggested stop parameters last week and will be removed from the Active Trades Category:

AAPL- Printed a weekly close below the bottom of the support zone on Friday.

EXM-  Exceeded both the suggested stop level of 0.72 on Friday.

NM- Fell below the 4.12 suggest stop level early last week.

The JOUT long still looks fine for now and the following Active Long Trades or Long Setups will be updated under separate posts soon:  HL, HMY, CVU, XSD, PEIX.

Admin note:  For those receiving post notifications by email, we are still working on restoring the feature to select or deselect specific post categories (e.g.- short trade setups, completed trades, market analysis,etc...). We don't have a firm ETA on the fix yet but hope to have it restored by the end of the week.  The RSS feed button will also be restored soon as well for those who prefer to follow the blog posts in a reader.

Apr 112013

EXM daily 6EXM recently pulled back and bounced right off support after coming within 5 cents of it's profit target two weeks ago.  As the stock was very overbought, I view this as healthy behavior and as long as the stock remains above support (0.80), the trade still looks good.  As the entry price on this trade was 0.88, an objective stop would be on a move below 0.72 as that would provide both an attractive 3:1 R/R on the trade as well as placing the stop just below the bottom of the resistance zone.  Those preferring more aggressive stops might consider any move below the top of the resistance zone, which was also the recent reaction low, at 0.80.  Updated daily chart.  For those interested in establishing a new position on this trade, please refer to the previous notes on this trade regarding the elevated risk/expected volatility and suggested position sizing.

Mar 252013

As my kids are on Spring Break this week, I plan to spend some quality time with them and as such, the posts will be on the light side.  I just turned on the computer for the day and I'm not in the least bit surprised to see such a sharp intraday reversals (both of them) so far.  About the only surprise was the fact that the US markets actually managed to gap up on the Cyprus deal steal, completely ignoring the potential ripple effects such outright theft of customer's bank deposits may have throughout all the other European & possibly non-European countries with precarious fiscal conditions. I'll check back in after the close today and will share anything that I come across that looks compelling.

The risk/reward favors being short or in cash at this time IMO.  I was "this" close to suggesting to book full profits the two long-side shipping stock trades (NM & EXM) on the early morning pop on Friday but regrettably did not.  NM is still very profitable but has pulled back back to the first target (T1) area which is now support so for those still long, consider a stop not too far below that level.  The EXM long has given back some very substantial gains from it's intraday highs on Friday but is still up 5.6% from entry (0.88 vs. current price of 0.93), so if long this one, make sure to have the appropriate stop in place according to your trading plan.  I would continue to suggest being very selective on any new long positions and booking profits or at least make sure to protect gains by raising stops.  I have several emails in my inbox from followers of the site which I will reply to later today.  FWIW, I think this current intraday bounce which has taken the markets back to almost flat on the day looks to be about as good an opportunity to reduce some long exposure or add short exposure (or hedges) as we might get for a while.

Mar 212013

EXM daily 5I had planned to add EXM as a trade idea before the open today but something came up and I had to run out this morning and have been playing catch-up since returning less than an hour ago.  Normally, I wouldn't post a long entry on a stock that is up 25% but I do think that EXM, any sharp pullbacks notwithstanding, still has the potential for significant gains.  In fact, on March 6th, I posted: Besides the miners (mentioned in the previous post) one of the sectors that will soon likely play a potentially powerful game of catch-up (assuming that the broad market continues to move higher over the next few weeks+) is the shipping index. I had added the NM (shipper) long shortly before that and even mentioned EGLE as one of my favorite in that post just a few weeks ago and EGLE is up 68% since then.

Again, these stocks can drop as fast as they rise so I would consider EXM an aggressive trade.  If you decide to take it, consider adjusting your position size down to account for the unusually large profit and loss potential on this stock.  The initial (and final for now) target and suggested stops are listed on this daily chart.

Oct 312012

as far as the shipping stocks, both EXM and EGLE will be removed from the active trades list.  EXM had hit the 2nd target for a 32% gain, exceeded it by a decent amount and then reversed hard where a logical stop would have been triggered below either T1 or T2 (former resistance levels become support).  EGLE was stopped out a while ago as per the suggested stop criteria of a move back below the 3.48 level and will also be moved to the completed trades category.