Oct 012014
ALK weekly Oct 1st

ALK weekly Oct 1st

ALK (Alaska Air Group Inc) will trigger a short entry on any move below 42.20. T2 (34.40) is the current preferred target with a suggested stop over 45.10. ALK was recently shorted on a break of the daily uptrend line back in late July and hit the sole profit target for a quick 10% gain less than 10 trading sessions later. That previous trade was meant to be a relatively quick trade with a modest profit target because the price target on the daily chart also corresponded with this more significant, longer-term uptrend line shown here on the weekly chart. As expected, ALK did bounce off that initial tag of both the horizontal support (T1 on the daily chart) and the intersecting longer-term bull market uptrend line which goes all the way back to the July 2008 lows.

With ALK now trading below that long-term bull market uptrend line & a weekly candlestick close below likely to occur by end-of-day Friday, ALK looks to offer an objective long-term swing short entry here although it would be prudent to wait for prices to break below the former T1 horizontal support level of 42.20 (which would also take out today’s earlier LOD of 42.21).

click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of ALK   or  click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of ALK (notations are from the previous trade).

Jul 242014
ALK daily July 24th

ALK daily July 24th

ALK (Alaska Air Group) offers an objective short entry on this break below the multi-year uptrend line. A suggested stop over 48.30 is based on the current sole profit target of 42.20 (additional targets may be added).

The notes on the chart states an entry on a break below 46.80 or the trendline. ALK did go on to break below both levels during the time that it took to annotated & upload the chart as well as composing this post. Therefore, ALK will be posted directly as an Active Trade although it still offers an objective entry at this time.

Click here the view the live, annotated chart of ALK

Oct 282013

The following short trades will be moved to the Completed Trades category.  While none of these trades reached their final price target, many of these trades did hit one or more profits targets before bouncing & exceeded their previously suggested (or any reasonable) stop level(s).  As the charts on some of these trades still remain longer-term bearish, feel free contact me if you are following any of these trades & I will be glad to post or email and updated chart with comments.  There are a few Active Short Trades under review that may be removed soon as well but the remainder of Active Short Trades still look very constructive at this time.

ACT- stopped out as per suggested criteria

ALK- T1 (first target) hit for a 13%, 1 -day gain then bounced.

AMZN- T1 (bottom of channel) hit the stock has continued to move higher since.

AVP- T1 hit for a 15.6% shortly after entry. From there, the stock bounced, as expected and has twice since hit the T1 support level again & still remains profitable but will be removed to make room for more attractive trade ideas.

AXP- Although the divergences persist, AXP exceeded the previously suggested stop criteria & will be removed from the Active Trades, possibly added back soon.

CPA- Prices fell about 3/4ths of the way to the first target before reversing and moving back above the uptrend line.

CRM- Prices also fell about 3/4ths of the way to the first target before the stock reversed and moved back above the uptrend line.

NTRI- Exceeded the previously suggested stop shortly after the trade was added.

PM-  Hit T1 for a 10% gain, made the expected bounce off that level & has since floundered around.  This trade is still profitable & has remained below entry & will likely continue down towards T2 over time but will be removed to make room for more objective trade ideas.

QQQ/QID- Although a suggested stop was not listed, the Q’s and the broad market continue to grind higher.  As such, this trade will be considered stopped out and revisited once we get some solid evidence of a trend reversal in the broad markets.

ROST- Hit T3 for a 22% gain, bounced from there and has since moved back above entry & will be moved to the Completed Trades category along with these other trades.

IWM/TWM- Same notes as the QQQ/QID trade above.

SAVE- Dropped about 1/2 to the first target following the wedge breakdown and has moved considerably higher since.

SHW- Closed above the uptrend line (previously suggested stop criteria) on Friday.

SNI- Fell about 90% of the way to the first profit target before reversing an moving well past the entry price, triggered any reasonable stops.

TJX- Fell about 1/2 way to the first target before reversing & exceeding the previously suggested stop level.

TSCO- Exceeded all previously suggest stop criteria.

XLP- Hit T1, bounced, came back to test that support level once more and is now above the entry price & will be removed as the risk/reward is no longer clearly skewed to the short side.

Oct 172013

ALK daily 6Since hitting the first target for a very quick 13% gain back in May, the ALK short continued to move lower, bottoming in June & just recently moving back above the original entry price.  As the stock has formed a new bearish rising wedge pattern over that time, new price targets have been added.  A new short entry or add-on to the existing trade will trigger on a break below the current wedge pattern, with stops TBD upon entry.  Updated daily chart:

May 282013

For those looking for some short-side trade candidates, including hedges to a portfolio of longs, the Airline Sector continues to offer some of the most attractive technical setups at this time.  This first string of charts below are the daily and weekly charts of several key airline sectors with clear annotations as to my take on these charts:

The charts below are all daily time frame charts of some of my favorite setups in the airline sector, including the updated chart of the ALK current active short trade, which looks poised to offer a new objective entry and/or add-on to the current position on any move below today’s low of 56.00.  I’ve also included an updated chart of the recently posted SAVE trade setup as well, which hammered off the top of it’s bearish rising wedge pattern today to put in a potentially bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick… another one to keep an eye on this week.

As always, after clicking on the first chart in a string to expand, these charts can be further zoomed by using the scroll-wheel on your mouse; the touch-pad on your laptop (slide finger up & down along the right edge of the touchpad); or simple click & drag the bottom right corner of any expanded image.

May 212013

The first target that was added to the ALK short trade has now been hit for a one-day, 13% gain.  Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops, depending on your trading plan.  Updated daily chart below preceded by yesterday’s original daily chart which is a perfect example of how TA works.  ALK had set-up in a textbook bearish rising wedge pattern with a well defined uptrend line with very sharp & distinct negative divergences in place while at rarely, if ever, seen overbought readings on the RSI.  Typically, the more extended a stock becomes and the more pronounced the divergences, the more power the reversal will be (bullish or bearish) when it comes.

FYI for those receiving email notifications of new posts:  I am aware that a lot of new posts were sent out today as I have been replenishing the trade ideas with new setups on both the long and short side.  Now that my primary computer has been repaired and the trade ideas have been updated, I will make it a priority to restore the functionality whereby subscribers can opt out of receiving email notifications on specific categories that they don’t not wish to receive immediate email notifications on.  Until that feature is restored, I would expect the frequency of posts to diminish after today.  I do still have plenty of setups to share, both long and short, as well as some market analysis to discuss but I will try to post those setups as they approach their respective triggers/entry levels.