Oct 282013

The following short trades will be moved to the Completed Trades category.  While none of these trades reached their final price target, many of these trades did hit one or more profits targets before bouncing & exceeded their previously suggested (or any reasonable) stop level(s).  As the charts on some of these trades still remain longer-term bearish, feel free contact me if you are following any of these trades & I will be glad to post or email and updated chart with comments.  There are a few Active Short Trades under review that may be removed soon as well but the remainder of Active Short Trades still look very constructive at this time.

ACT- stopped out as per suggested criteria

ALK- T1 (first target) hit for a 13%, 1 -day gain then bounced.

AMZN- T1 (bottom of channel) hit the stock has continued to move higher since.

AVP- T1 hit for a 15.6% shortly after entry. From there, the stock bounced, as expected and has twice since hit the T1 support level again & still remains profitable but will be removed to make room for more attractive trade ideas.

AXP- Although the divergences persist, AXP exceeded the previously suggested stop criteria & will be removed from the Active Trades, possibly added back soon.

CPA- Prices fell about 3/4ths of the way to the first target before reversing and moving back above the uptrend line.

CRM- Prices also fell about 3/4ths of the way to the first target before the stock reversed and moved back above the uptrend line.

NTRI- Exceeded the previously suggested stop shortly after the trade was added.

PM-  Hit T1 for a 10% gain, made the expected bounce off that level & has since floundered around.  This trade is still profitable & has remained below entry & will likely continue down towards T2 over time but will be removed to make room for more objective trade ideas.

QQQ/QID- Although a suggested stop was not listed, the Q’s and the broad market continue to grind higher.  As such, this trade will be considered stopped out and revisited once we get some solid evidence of a trend reversal in the broad markets.

ROST- Hit T3 for a 22% gain, bounced from there and has since moved back above entry & will be moved to the Completed Trades category along with these other trades.

IWM/TWM- Same notes as the QQQ/QID trade above.

SAVE- Dropped about 1/2 to the first target following the wedge breakdown and has moved considerably higher since.

SHW- Closed above the uptrend line (previously suggested stop criteria) on Friday.

SNI- Fell about 90% of the way to the first profit target before reversing an moving well past the entry price, triggered any reasonable stops.

TJX- Fell about 1/2 way to the first target before reversing & exceeding the previously suggested stop level.

TSCO- Exceeded all previously suggest stop criteria.

XLP- Hit T1, bounced, came back to test that support level once more and is now above the entry price & will be removed as the risk/reward is no longer clearly skewed to the short side.

Oct 172013

ALK daily 6Since hitting the first target for a very quick 13% gain back in May, the ALK short continued to move lower, bottoming in June & just recently moving back above the original entry price.  As the stock has formed a new bearish rising wedge pattern over that time, new price targets have been added.  A new short entry or add-on to the existing trade will trigger on a break below the current wedge pattern, with stops TBD upon entry.  Updated daily chart:

May 282013

For those looking for some short-side trade candidates, including hedges to a portfolio of longs, the Airline Sector continues to offer some of the most attractive technical setups at this time.  This first string of charts below are the daily and weekly charts of several key airline sectors with clear annotations as to my take on these charts:

The charts below are all daily time frame charts of some of my favorite setups in the airline sector, including the updated chart of the ALK current active short trade, which looks poised to offer a new objective entry and/or add-on to the current position on any move below today’s low of 56.00.  I’ve also included an updated chart of the recently posted SAVE trade setup as well, which hammered off the top of it’s bearish rising wedge pattern today to put in a potentially bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick… another one to keep an eye on this week.

As always, after clicking on the first chart in a string to expand, these charts can be further zoomed by using the scroll-wheel on your mouse; the touch-pad on your laptop (slide finger up & down along the right edge of the touchpad); or simple click & drag the bottom right corner of any expanded image.

May 212013

The first target that was added to the ALK short trade has now been hit for a one-day, 13% gain.  Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops, depending on your trading plan.  Updated daily chart below preceded by yesterday’s original daily chart which is a perfect example of how TA works.  ALK had set-up in a textbook bearish rising wedge pattern with a well defined uptrend line with very sharp & distinct negative divergences in place while at rarely, if ever, seen overbought readings on the RSI.  Typically, the more extended a stock becomes and the more pronounced the divergences, the more power the reversal will be (bullish or bearish) when it comes.

FYI for those receiving email notifications of new posts:  I am aware that a lot of new posts were sent out today as I have been replenishing the trade ideas with new setups on both the long and short side.  Now that my primary computer has been repaired and the trade ideas have been updated, I will make it a priority to restore the functionality whereby subscribers can opt out of receiving email notifications on specific categories that they don’t not wish to receive immediate email notifications on.  Until that feature is restored, I would expect the frequency of posts to diminish after today.  I do still have plenty of setups to share, both long and short, as well as some market analysis to discuss but I will try to post those setups as they approach their respective triggers/entry levels.

May 212013

ALK daily 3As the ALK short trade is already approaching a 12% gain since the short entry around this time yesterday, I’ve added an earlier target at the first decent support level on the daily chart as shown here.  My current preferred target remains the weekly uptrend line but this early target (56.70) can be used by those preferring to book partial or full quick profits.

May 202013

ALK daily 2Just an FYI: The ALK has already triggered the second and more conventional entry (breakdown below the daily rising wedge pattern).  ALK was trading UP 2% when posted as a short entry for aggressive traders earlier today and the stock has already dropped 8% since then (as I type) to trigger that second, conventional entry.  The price target remains the weekly uptrend line and the suggested stop for both lots/entries will now be on any daily close above 65.15.  Updated daily chart:

May 202013

ALK will be added as both a Short Setup, with an entry to be triggered on a break below this daily rising wedge pattern, as well as an Active Short trade (for aggressive traders) here at the top of this contracting channel on the weekly chart.  Shorts remain counter-trend trades right now on all time frames (short, intermediate and long-term) so short trades so my preference on an aggressive short entry here would be a partial position with the plan of adding to the position if, and only if, prices break below the daily rising wedge pattern.  At this time, the one and only target will the the lower trendline on the weekly chart although additional targets may be added.  Stops TBD based upon the entry price (i.e.- breakdown level on the daily chart) with stops for the aggressive entry on a move above the recent highs.  Daily & weekly charts:

Mar 222013

These are the daily charts of the ten largest components of the Russell 2000 Index (posted in descending order by weighting).  Rarely have I even seen such screamingly bearish patterns on nearly every top component in a major, diversified index such as this.  Of course, these stocks are also extremely overbought on the daily, weekly and even monthly time frames.  Personally, I’m expecting much more than the run-of-the-mill 3-5% pullback that most pundits on the street are calling for.  As taking screen captures and annotating 10 chart takes a considerable amount of time, my notes on the charts are minimal but I believe that most of these patterns speak clearly.

Many of these charts have some horizontal or uptrend lines drawn below current prices which would act as downside targets, for those interested in shorting or even going long any of these stocks on a pullback (the former being my preference).  Although some of the stock have just recently broken below support, typically a key uptrend line, many are still within the patterns with some towards the top of the patterns/trendlines (resistance) while others are close to the lower uptrend lines (support).  Therefore, my short on the index at this time is what I refer to as an anticipatory trade (entering the trade early in anticipation of a likely breakdown).  However, more conservative or conventional traders might choose to wait until the majority of these stocks have broken below the support levels shown on these charts before taking a full position.

Jan 292013

ALK will trigger a short entry on a break below the rising wedge pattern on this 4-hour period chart.  At this time, my preferred target is T1 as the primary trend is still bullish and as such, this will be viewed as a counter-trend, pullback trade.  However, this trade is very likely to be extended to a longer term swing trade targeting T2 or quite likely the longer term swing targets shown on the daily and weekly charts below.