remember:  traders should have a plan and stick with that plan unless the charts and market action have convinced you to change or alter your trading plan.  from experience, i know that days like today make those short second-guess their positioning and help reinforce the bullishness to those who are positioned long.  to me, i see a great opportunity to add onto my favorite short positions at great prices.  on oct 19th, as the Q’s had just broken down from the ascending broadening wedge pattern, i posted (along with the 4 hour QQQ chart):  “if this breakdown today sticks, my expectations are that the Q’s find some support on T1 (pause or a bounce)”.

well, that is exactly what is happening so far.  i then stated a few days later, as T1 was first hit on the 23th: as usual, most of the early targets are put in place as i believe those levels to be significant enough support to likely cause a reaction (bounce).  those levels are also useful for active traders that prefer booking quick profits while the higher targets are typically for longer-term swing traders. how far this bounces goes is hard to say but i will dig into the intraday charts and some other market metrics to try to determine that.  i do not expect this bounce to be very large in time or scope. “

as of now, when i look at the charts, nothing has changed my opinion or expectations on how the market will play out going forward.  actually, the very fact that we ARE bouncing here only helps solidify that my primary scenario (much more downside over the next few weeks/month) will play out because this bounce was called for weeks in advance and has been part of that scenario for months now.  i don’t have a very solid read on the shorter-term time frames as to exactly how much further in time or price this bounce might go but my best guess is that it is very limited on both metrics at this point.

with all that being said, i am aware that sometimes my market scenarios play out and other times they don’t.  therefore, i remain vigilant for any technical evidence that calls into question my primary scenario. one such event that would do so would be a solid move above this R1 zone on this SPY daily chart below.