July 2016
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Over 90% of the biggest US companies report earnings this week

Over 90% of the biggest US companies report will report their quarterly earnings this week in what is expected to be the fourth consecutive quarter of declining profits. While I've spend the better part of the day scanning for new trade setups, it would only be prudent to hold off entering any new positions, especially [...]

Jul 18, 2016 4:37pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , |10 Comments

US Equity Market Bigger Picture: Powerful Divergences Continue to Build

As covered in the July 10th market outlook video, the 2015 market top was preceded by a series of 3 consecutive divergent highs, culminating in one large divergent top on May 20th, followed by a 12.% drop into the Aug lows (or actually a 15%+ drop into the Feb '16 lows before that 2015 was [...]

Jul 18, 2016 12:57pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , |5 Comments

Mixed Bag of Technicals

Near-term charts seem to paint a mixed bag of technicals. On one hand, we had the recent breakdowns on the 30-minute rising wedge patterns in QQQ & SPY following a divergent high. However, the trend indicator still remain bullish & with the near-term & intermediate-term trend still clearly bullish, the trend remains bullish until proven [...]

Jul 18, 2016 10:50am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , |3 Comments

SPY & QQQ Poised to Print Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks

Both the SPY (S&P 500 Index Tracking ETF) & QQQ (Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking ETF) are poised to print bearish engulfing candlesticks with bearish divergences still forming on the daily time frame. As discussed in last week's video, the 2015 top in the $SPX was marked by a series of three consecutive divergent highs, each [...]

Jul 15, 2016 3:46pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |13 Comments

USO Crude Oil Update

USO (crude oil ETF) has held on two successive tags of the 10.67 support level with the most recent tag confirming a divergent low (bullish). While an upside break of the pattern could spark a rally, I'm leaning towards another thrust down within the wedge that takes out the recent lows before a meaningful reversal. [...]

Jul 15, 2016 3:12pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , |0 Comments

IWM Bullish Pennant + Uptrend Line Formation

I try to avoid contradictory analysis with the old "the market might go up if... or the market might go down if ...." but I'd be remiss not to point out both of these technical levels to watch on this IWM 60-minute chart. We have both a pretty well-defined & fully mature bull pennant pattern [...]

Jul 15, 2016 2:15pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , |3 Comments

Potential Double-top In Semiconductor Sector + Trading Notes

SMH (semiconductor ETF) printed a doji candlestick yesterday with prices moving lower so far today, which helps to the bearish nature of this potential topping candlestick. I'm going to study the charts of each individual component of the sector to get a better read on the group as I continue to be very selective in [...]

Jul 15, 2016 1:08pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: |0 Comments
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