Apr 032014
 

XVX.TO is an Active Long & Long-term Trade idea that was first added as a setup on Jan 17th (click here to view the previous notes if interested in this trade). Since that last post, the $CNDX (TSX Venture Composite Index) did go on to trigger an entry on the trade by clearing the 980 resistance level. From there, the exchange gained about 7% before coming back in to make a successful backtest of the 980 level (resistance, once broken, becomes support). All-in-all, the price action on the $CNDX remains constructive and with prices still trading above but close to that 980 support level, still offers an objective entry or add-on for a long-term trade or investment in the XVX.TO.  To reiterate, my preference is to use the $CNDX chart for timing entries & exits in the XVX.TO. Updated daily charts below.

$CDNX daily April 3rd

$CDNX daily April 3rd

XVX.TO daily April 3rd

XVX.TO daily April 3rd

 

Apr 032014
 

EVR (Evercore Partners Inc) will be added as both a Short Setup and an Active Short Trade around current levels (trading at 54.89 now) or as high as any backtest of the uptrend line. EVR is bear-flagging here shortly after breaking below the primary uptrend line. T2 at 44.55 is my preferred swing target at this time. An alternative entry with a higher probably for the trade to pan out, albeit a less favorable entry price would be to wait for a solid break below the bear flag pattern. Stops should be dependent on one’s entry price, ideally using an R/R of 3:1 or better.

EVR daily April 3rd

EVR daily April 3rd

Apr 032014
 

The SPY/$SPX has been stronger than the $NDX on this most recent move up with the short-term downtrend that was in place since the March 7th high called into question. I still favor additional downside from here (primary) with the possibility of a marginal new high before prices turn back down (alternative scenario).

SPY 120 Minute April 3rd

SPY 120 Minute April 3rd

 

As of now, the short-term downtrend of the QQQ/$NDX remains solidly intact while a break above the March 19th reaction high would end of the series of lower highs and lower lows (downtrend) that have been in place for the last 4 weeks. Additional near-term downside targets have been added to this updated 120-minute chart.

QQQ 120 minute April 3rd

QQQ 120 minute April 3rd

Apr 032014
 

I’ll be watching AAPL (Apple Inc.) closely over the next few trading sessions as the price of this market leading stock is quickly closing in on the apex of this symmetrical triangle pattern. The downtrend line of that pattern is generated off of the Dec 5th peak in AAPL which came just two trading sessions before the AAPL Looking Increasingly Bearish  post in which a detailed case was made for a correction in Apple. From that Dec 5th peak, AAPL fell about 13% (same percentage drop as the previous overbought cluster that was highlighted in that post).

AAPL daily April 3rd

AAPL daily April 3rd

Since the Dec 5th peak, AAPL has been trading in a contracting price range, i.e.- a symmetrical triangle pattern. Such patterns often prove to be continuation patterns with the stock breaking out in the direction of the previous trend. However, triangle patterns can break either way and it’s also not uncommon to see an initial “fake-out”, with prices breaking in one direction only to reverse and continue moving in the opposite direction shortly thereafter. Personally I have no interest in taking a position in AAPL regardless of which way prices move from here but as the world’s largest publicly traded company & the largest weighted component of both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Indices, it would be prudent to keep eye on the stock over the next few weeks.

Apr 012014
 

I took the day off yesterday and will be out of the office most of today but just wanted to post an update on GDX (Gold Miners ETF). As per the update posted on Wednesday of last week, my alternative scenario still has GDX making one final thrust lower to kiss the 23.00 horizontal support level + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. My primary scenario still has GDX bottoming on Thursday and moving higher from there.

So far, yesterday’s move lower in the mining stocks closed to print a higher low in the sector so there’s a good chance that today will either see prices drop below last week’s low of 23.27 (and likely bring prices down to the 23.00 area) or the GDX starts moving higher in an attempt to take out Friday’s reaction high of 24.35, which would be bullish and likely propel prices towards the first near-term target of 24.70.  I still give only slight odds to my primary scenario & as such, continue to scale into the mining stock as this point vs. a full position.  Updated 15 minute & 60 minute charts below.

GDX 15 minute April 1st

GDX 15 minute April 1st

 

GDX 60 minute April 1st

GDX 60 minute April 1st

Mar 282014
 

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) has broken above the downtrend line/bullish falling wedge pattern shown on the previously posted 15 minute chart. The updated 15 minute chart is posted below along with 3 potential near-term targets, for those only looking for a potential quick trade on the mining sector.

GDX 15 minute March 28th

GDX 15 minute March 28th

Mar 272014
 

TASR (Taser International Inc.) will be added as both an Active Short Trade here around 18.27 as well as a Short Setup with an entry (or add-on) to be triggered on a break below this ascending channel. Normally I would wait for a breakdown below this ascending price channel before establishing a short position but with TASR recently failing to take out the previous highs put in place back in late 2007 (bearish) and also recently rolling off extreme overbought levels on the weekly chart (see below), my plan is to establish a partial short position here while adding to my position on a break below the pattern. One other consideration in my analysis (not shown on the weekly chart below) is the recent volume surge on TASR, which is indicative of a buying climax. Similar volume surges also preceded the Dec 2004 top, the July 2007 top & the Feb 2010 top.

While my final & preferred target, T3 at 9.90, which is about 46% below current prices may seem very aggressive, such a correction is well within the average range of the previous 5 corrections in TASR that followed similar overbought readings on the weekly chart over the past decade. At this time, my preferred stop would be on any solid weekly close above the recent high of 20.83. Daily & weekly charts below.

Click here to view the live chart of TASR

TASR daily March 27th

TASR daily March 27th

TASR weekly March 27th

TASR weekly March 27th

 

Mar 272014
 

The daily charts of the $SPX (S&P 500 Index) and the $NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) from the Live Charts page have been updated. The primary uptrend lines on each chart & the downside price targets on both have been slightly modified. All of the chart on the Live Charts page are updated from time to time so best to check back regularly on those indices, stocks, or ETFs that you are following. Also note that the links to these charts are occasionally changed. Therefore, best to click on the link on the Live Charts page from time to time vs. saving and re-using the same link, which could take you to a live but outdated chart.

Click here to view the live daily chart of $SPX

$SPX daily March 27th

$SPX daily March 27th

 

Click here to view the live daily chart of $NDX

$NDX daily March 27th

$NDX daily March 27th

 

Mar 272014
 

SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF) is offering an objective long entry or add-on to an existing position as it backtest the primary downtrend line. SIL was one of the top picks in the mining sector added to the Live Chart page in December while the sector was bottoming. SIL went on to hit both the first target (downtrend line) and then hit and far exceeded the second target (T2) before reversing just shy of T3 (15.43). SIL has almost reached the 61.8% retracement of the strong run from the Dec lows to the Feb 24th high, which is near the lower-end of a healthy retracement for what could prove to be the initial leg of a new bull market (which of course, is still yet TBD but remains my preferred scenario at this time).  As such, a long entry or add-on around current levels with the appropriate stops below looks to offer an attractive R/R for swing traders and longer-term investors targeting T3 or T4.

Click here to view the live chart of SIL (silver miners ETF)

Click here to view the live chart of $SIVLER (spot silver prices)

SIL daily March 27th

SIL daily March 27th,

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