Over the last couple of trading sessions I’ve struggled to find something in the charts worth highlighting but have come up empty. The recent bounce in the markets has exceeded my expectations but it is far from unusual for the market to experience such a sharp snap-back rally following the equally sharp move lower that immediately preceded it. Most of the short-term trend indicators that I follow have just recently flipped back to bullish on the Nasdaq 100 while the S&P 500 has a mixed bag of bullish and bearish short-term trend indicators. However, every major diversified US equity index, from the small & large caps alike, remain solidly on intermediate-term sell signals as defined by the 20/50-day ema pair (although the 20-day ema on the $NDX is getting close to crossing back above the 50-day, should that index climb much higher over the next day or so). One thing to watch in the coming days would be a backtest the 50-day ema by the 20-ema from below in either the $NDX or the $SPX. The recent IWM short has just moved above the 2nd suggested stop level (horizontal resistance plus the 50%/61.8% Fib cluster) but remains well below the upper-most suggested stop of 144.55 for now.
Gold, silver & the mining stocks have been floundering around lately as the $USD chops around just below long-term resistance. However, not all dollar sensitive assets are waiting to follow the US dollar’s lead; $Wheat (WEAT), $Corn (CORN), & $Soybeans (SOYB) have been climbing steadily all month with MTD gains ranging from about 10-15%. Regardless of whether or not this bounce in the equity markets ends up taking us to slightly above the prior highs or not, which at this point is a coin-toss IMO, the charts continue to indicate more downside in the coming months at this time.