Jul 212014
 

HAIN (Hain Celestial Group Inc) will trigger a short entry on any move below Thursday’s low of 84.79, which will confirm a breakdown below this symmetrical triangle (daily chart).

As the weekly chart below illustrates, a more powerful, longer-term sell signal on HAIN will come on a weekly close below the multi-year primary uptrend line in the stock which makes up part of a very large bearish rising wedge pattern, complete with negative divergences on the PPO & RSI leading up to the January 21st top in the stock.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of HAIN                    click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of HAIN

Jul 212014
 

HSY (Hershey Foods Corp) will be added as a Active Short Trade here around the 93.85 level. HSY recent broke below this 5+ year bull market primary uptrend line with strong bearish divergences in place before the breakdown (weekly chart). HSY bounced on Friday & opened just below the bottom of last Wednesday’s gap today (see daily chart) which offers an objective short entry as that gap will likely act as resistance. For more conservative traders not willing to short until clear evidence of a trend reversal in the broad markets (which I think we will soon get), alternative short entries on HSY might also be made on any bounce back towards the 96 area (resistance) or a break below the 90.25ish area (support)… see daily chart below for both those levels/scenarios.

This trade is based primary off of the weekly time frame & should be considered a longer-term swing trade. Targets are listed on the weekly chart below with suggested stops using an R/R of 3:1 or better based on one’s preferred target and average entry price. Daily & weekly charts below.     Click here to view the live, annotated chart of HSY

Jul 182014
 

Those who checked the links to the recently posted 60 minute live chart of the SPY & QQQ might have noticed some resistance levels that I added earlier today. With this being an OpEx day (options expiration), I typically don’t place much consideration into what the market does as OpEx days are often driven more by position squaring due to all of the expiring options than by the true underlying forces of supply & demand. Regardless, I figured that I would go ahead & point out those resistance levels out as prices are current challenging them at this time. We’ve also seen prices on the SPY regain the wedge today, something that definitely warrants monitoring into next week as if we don’t see prices move back below the wedge by early next week, along with a break of the support level that the Q’s bounced off of yesterday, then the odds that the markets will take out the recent highs will rise sharply.

Continue reading »

Jul 172014
 

The trade ideas on Right Side of the Chart are typically updated when each profit target is hit or as soon as possible shortly thereafter. This is due to the fact that all trade ideas shared here have one or more explicit profit target levels. Trade ideas that are removed from the Active Trades category, whether or not one or more profit targets were already hit, are typically moved to the Completed Trades category for one of several reasons: Either they have exceeded the maximum suggested stop level, if one was provided; The trade has exceeded any reasonable stop level, if none suggested; The technical outlook for the trade and/or the broad market has changed enough to book profits on the trade before the planned target is reached; or the trade simply no longer looks compelling from a risk/reward perspective and is removed to make room for more attractive trade ideas.

As stop parameters, risk tolerances, holding periods & trading styles vary widely amongst individual traders, many of the stopped out trades or those yet to be stopped out but stuck in a trading range are removed together in bulk from time to time. Remember, all profit targets and suggested stops, if any listed, are simply suggestions based on my own personal trading style and preference of using a R/R (risk-to-reward ratio) of 3:1 or better on each trade (i.e.- accept $1 of downside risk for every $3 of upside profit potential). Some traders might opt for an even lower R/R, say 2:1, while other might only take a trade using a 4:1 or better R/R. Every trader must decide not only which trades to take but also which profit target(s) to aim for as well as which stop-loss parameters to use for each trade.

In reviewing the Long Trade Ideas category tonight, the following trades will now be considered completed as they have either exceeded their previously suggested Continue reading »

Jul 172014
 
QQQ 60 minute July 17th

QQQ 60 minute July 17th

The Q’s hammered off the S1 support level shortly before the close today (hammer was printed on this 60 min time frame, not on the daily frame). If & when the S1 uptrend line is taken out, the next support comes in at the blue R2 uptrend line, where another reaction is likely. However, based on today’s breakdown on the SPY in addition to the double negative divergences (60 minute) & the recent extreme overbought readings on the QQQ daily time frame, my expectation at this time is for continue downside in the coming days/weeks to at least the T1 level (91.38) before any significant bounce and/or resumption of the primary uptrend.

click here to view the live, annotated 60 minute chart of the QQQ (intraday time periods are viewable only by stockcharts.com subscribers)

Jul 172014
 
SPY 60 minute 2 July 17th

SPY 60 minute 2 July 17th

The SPY has now clearly & impulsively broken below the previously posted 60 minute bearish rising pattern, triggered the first decent sell signal for the broad market in a while. The targets posted earlier are still my current downside targets for the SPY, with T2 as my preferred target.  However, I am not adding the SPY as an official trade idea, preferring to short the most bearish looking individual stocks and/or sectors.

On a related note, all 5 of the recently posted short trade setups, BXS, CSGP, PNC, PACW, & KRE are all Active Short Trades now, having either triggered the previously posted entry criteria and/or added directly as an Active Trade at the time of the initial post. However, all of those trades also remain in the Short Setups category as they still offer objective entries around current levels. Only FRC remains as a potential short trade idea as I’m still waiting to see if it trades below the T1 support level again soon, plus I’d prefer to see it work off the extreme near-term overbought conditions as a result of the huge drop in the stock immediately following the breakdown yesterday. Also note that CSGP is not a regional banking stock, unlike the rest of the recently added short trade ideas. I do have a watch-list of other potential short trades in various sectors & I will post some of the more promising candidates later today.

click here to view the live, annotated 60 minute chart of the SPY

Jul 172014
 
SPY 60 minute July 17th

SPY 60 minute July 17th

The SPY just hammered off the bottom of this 60 minute bearish rising wedge pattern. Assuming that prices break below the pattern before moving above the recent highs, my two downside targets are as shown here. If so, T2 is my preferred target, which is the bottom of the 5/27 gap as well as the 50% Fib retracement level. Should prices move above the recent highs, these targets may be revised.

As far as the recent short trade ideas, one should always keep one eye on the broad markets when timing entries & exits on your positions. Support is support until broken and as I pointed out in the previous email, the SPY had just fallen to the bottom of the rising wedge pattern, where at least a minor reaction (bounce or consolidation) was likely. So far, the SPY has hammered off the bottom of the wedge & with prices still in close proximity to that uptrend line, i.e. – support, it would be prudent to wait for prices to either break below the wedge or bounce back to a decent resistance level before adding any new short exposure.

For subscribers of stockcharts.com, the live, annotated version of this chart can be viewed by clicking here. Those who do not subscribe to stockcharts.com are not able to view intraday charts, such as this 60 minute chart, only daily & weekly charts. I am considering adding intraday charts of some of the major index tracking ETFs to the Live Charts section so drop me a line if you would be interested in having access to intraday charts on via the Live Charts section.

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