Dec 212012
 

I’ve received a few comments lately regarding the strength of the Russell 2000 (small caps) so I made this video to share my thoughts on the index.  I also covered the charts on the following components of that index in order to get a better feel on where the index itself is likely to go from here.  Many of these stocks are either active or recently completed trades on the site so for those who wish to skip forward in the video, here’s a list of the charts in the order discussed:

$RUT weekly, $RUT daily, $RUT 60 min, WNR, GCO, ACI, KBH, NTRI, MNTG, FCH, PCYC, XOMA, MDCO, JOUT, HL, OSTK, OMX, CTRN, HOV, STC, MW, IMGN, VLCCF, CUZ, PJC, RGR, FSLR.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE DEC 21, 2012 RUSSELL 2000 VIDEO.

 

Dec 212012
 

So far, the SPY 60 minute scenario is playing out but we do need these support levels on both the SPY & QQQ to help increase the odds that the Nov 16 – Dec 19th rally was just indeed a counter-trend rally in the early stages of a larger downtrend.  One day and one support level at a time though & with today being OpEx (options expiration), be prepared for some back & forth chop as positions are squared throughout the day, especially in light of today’s large gap down.

Dec 202012
 

As this monthly chart of the Big AAPL shows, there have been three well defined primary uptrends (bull markets) in the stock over the last 14 years.  Each of those trend reversals were confirmed by three criteria:

  1. A break below the primary uptrend line or a successful back test of the trendline following the breakdown.
  2. A bearish crossover on the MACD (as best viewed on the MACD histogram)
  3. A break (and close) below the 20 month exponential moving average.AAPL monthly 2

As this chart illustrates, the first two criteria have been met and currently, prices are sitting on the 20 ema but have yet to print a monthly close below.  Coincidentally (or really not), a break below the 20 month ema would coincide with the critical support level that I’ve been highlighting on the daily time frame.  With just six trading sessions left in the year, will Santa bring AAPL a gift and keep it above that 20 ema by the close on Dec 31st or will he give AAPL a lump of coal in it’s stocking, dragging the stock lower to close below that level, thereby giving the stock it’s third and most likely final long-term sell signal and confirmation of a new bear market in the world’s largest publicly traded company?

Dec 202012
 

I’m seeing a mixed bag of bullish and bearish charts when viewing the broad markets and key sectors from a longer-term perspective.  For now, my longer-term bias remains bearish but I did want to point out some of the recent bullish technical developments as well as some of more bearish charts as well.

I put together this video overview completely unscripted (pre-planned) just cycling thru the various key indexes and sectors from one of my watch-lists and in doing so, the video turned out quite a bit longer than usual.  Here’s the list, in order as covered, of the charts discussed should you want to skip to any particular index or sector ETF that you are interested.

XLK, XLP, GLD, UUP, IYT, TLT, QQQ, IWM, SPY, IYR, MUB, GAZ, $EUR/USD, $RMZ, $XAL, $DJUSSC, $DXYO, $NDXE, $COMPQ, XRT, JJC, $SPEW, $MG421 (Investment Brokerage-National), $DJUSRR, XLB, XLU, SMH, USO, XLE, XLF, EEM, FXI, PBE, $TNX, MOO, PGJ, $SPX, XES, $RUT, $NDX

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE 12/20/2012 WEEKLY CHARTS OVERVIEW VIDEO.  As always, these videos are best viewed by selecting the 720p HD quality playback setting and using the large player or full-screen size option once the video opens in YouTube.

Dec 192012
 

Really not much to report today.  Yesterday’s action was clearly bullish with the markets putting in a solid trend day, closing near the highs and giving back very little gains following the intraday 1-minute rising wedge breakdowns.  The SPX managed to close right at, or actually just a hair above the upper end of it’s key resistance zone and pivot point around the 1440 area but has been unable to build on those gains so far today (which really isn’t surprising considering that the markets may need to consolidate to work off some of the overbought conditions).

The COMPQ also managed to close just above the key 3030-3040 resistance zone and like the SPX, remains just above that level, but also by a very thin margin.  AAPL, although it had a decent day yesterday, continues to lag the broad markets in recent weeks & months and still remains perched just above critical support.  All in all, yesterday’s action did take a bite out of the longer-term bearish case and as long as the markets remain above these former resistance, now support zones, the near-term and intermediate term uptrends are intact.  However, as the chain of recent 60 minute SPY charts above illustrates, yesterday’s move in the SPY/SPX stopped cold at the back-test of the recently broken bearish rising wedge and R2 resistance level and continues to struggle with that level today.  A solid move & close above yesterday’s highs would obviously be bullish and likely lead to additional upside while any decent move lower, in particular a move that takes out yesterday’s lows, would be very bearish and likely open the door to the next wave of selling.  Finally, for those heavily positioned in either direction, be aware that we several potentially market moving economic releases due out tomorrow & Friday. Dec 20-21 economic calendar

Dec 182012
 

For more active traders, here’s a one-minute chart of the QQQ showing a recently broken rising wedge pattern with a few support levels below to watch for on any pullback.  Interesting how the 38.2% fib retracement lines right up with that large volume at price bar which lies at today’s opening gap price. Definitely and important level to watch should the QQQ reverse anytime this week as a move below that level would wipe out today’s gains and be very bearish from a technical perspective.  For those receiving e-mail post notifications that do not wish to receive the short-term intraday charts, you can use the “change your settings/unsubcribe” link to exclude the Intraday Market Analysis category.QQQ 1 min

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