Dec 042012

The IACI short recently exceeded the first suggested stop level for the add-on lot (or new entry on the bounce back to T1) but stopped cold at the 200ema which I mentioned as a key resistance level for those preferring to give the trade some more room.  Once/if the recent lows around 41.90 are taken out, the odds of T2 being hit soon will increase sharply.  Updated daily chart & 2-day period charts below.

This recent bounce in the broad market reminds me a lot of the market action leading up to the Sept 14th top whereby the market makers and other institutional manipulators are leveraging their buying power in this low volume market to run the stops on the stocks with the most bearish pattern just before loading short (or exiting long) themselves right before the bottom falls out.  As it was back then, my preference is to give my swing-short positions a lot of room regarding stops, favoring the longer-term targets (although I often micro-manage those trades off various targets if the charts and/or broad markets confirm a bounce) and take profits quickly on any long-side trades.  Micro-managing may be taking partial profits on an early target; taking full-profits with the intention to re-enter after a bounce or maybe a break below that support level; taking temporary long-side hedges; or even covering the short & reversing the trade to a long off support/target to play a quick bounce before going back short again.

Dec 032012

The AMD long has hit the second target and is currently up over 26% from entry.  Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops, according to your trading plan.  Currently, T3 is my preferred target on this trade and a stop somewhat below the former T1 (2.15) would be appropriate for those who entered on the breakout around 1.90.

Dec 032012

The ISM Manufacturing Index has once again fallen back into contraction territory for the fourth time in the last six months.  Bernanke better start hitting that CTRL-P button more rapidly:  Mo’ money Ben!!!… print some more free money and show them how you have now relegated the “R” word to the history books!!!

Nov 302012

ka·put: Broken and useless; no longer working and effective.

I’ve always been of the opinion that charts speak louder than words.  Here are a few of the most recent US economic reports, which really don’t need much of an explanation or technical expertise to decipher.  The longer they bid the market up on the belief that QEternity and the Bernanke Put Kaput will lift the stock market forever, the larger the disconnect between equity prices and the underlying economic fundamentals becomes.  The larger this disconnect gets, the more powerful the reversion to the mean will be once it finally manifests.  Have a nice weekend.



Nov 302012

This video is a follow-up to the Global Stock Markets Overview video that was posted back on 9-16-12, which can be referenced under the “ Videos” link under Featured Posts to the right of the page.  The video discusses how the US markets & key European bourses have played out since then, the current technical posture, and where we are likely to go from here.