The AMD long setup posted last week triggered today. Please note that I have revised the targets since the last post (shown on the previous chart, first one below). My first target is now the white downtrend line shown. As that is a moving target, I can’t list the exact price level so best to replicate it on your own chart if you took the trade.
Yesterday, the HPQ long trade did indeed recoup all of it’s losses since the original long entry and even went slightly profitable. Those still in the position might consider a stop below today’s lows as that is where I will officially remove this trade from the Active Trades category. As per my plan, I did exit my position yesterday and I have continued to move back towards an aggressively short positioning throughout yesterday and today by closing the last of my long-side hedges and scaling back into many of the shorts that I recent closed (along with some others).
However, I realize that many traders and investors won’t always share my market bias at times and as such, I continually strive to post the best looking trade and investment ideas, long or short, irrespective of my own personal views on the market. I do have a few long candidates that I might post soon but I’d like to cull through the existing trades first to remove any stopped out or less promising trades listed on the site. I also might prefer to see AAPL & the QQQ take out those previous posted resistance levels/bounce targets that they are currently struggling with before adding any longs. Either that or maybe an orderly, low-volume pullback first to help alleviate some of the short-term overbought conditions.
An added kicker for those taking advantage of this bounce back to resistance on the IBB short trade would be the fact that all recent overbought readings on the 60 minute time frame have lead to pullbacks in the ETF. Keep in mind that patterns never repeat themselves indefinitely or without fail but taken together with the technical posture of the daily chart, this only adds to the probability of a short trade initiated around current levels playing out successfully. Targets remain as marked on the daily chart. Consider a stop commensurate with your preferred target (mine is at least T2 at this time) with no less than a 3:1 R/R ($1 of loss allowance for every $3 of profit potential). 60 minute chart below along with the updated daily chart:
The TJX short trade came within a point of hitting the first target just before the market bounced and once again looks to offer an objective short entry here as it back-tests the recently broken S1 support level (now R1, resistance). T2 (28.30) is my preferred swing target on this trade over time and would provide roughly a 35% gain from current levels if hit. Therefore, stops can be set as high as 10% above current levels and still offer a 3.5:1 R/R although one could also short here with a stop not too far above resistance on a move over the 44.40 area, thereby giving this trade an excellent R/R of 15:1.
For those in the trade, please note that I have slightly revised the targets as T1 was previously stated to be the first of the horizontal support (at 39.70) or the primary (yellow) uptrend line. At this point, the uptrend line will be hit first if this trade continues to play out. I also modified T2 from a target zone to a hard target at 28.30, where I will most likely cover the trade and remove T3, the current final target, depending on the market conditions at the time if we get there. Daily & 2-day charts below:
One of several active short trades that still has a lot of meat left on the bone. Notice how that 100 ema has acted as support during the bull-run on TSCO. This is a 2-day period chart so that level (red line) is the same as the 200 ema on the daily time frame. Any solid move below or a close under that level would be the next objective short entry or add-on for those currently in the trade while a break below T1 should open the door to T2. Stops above the 101 area, targets marked on chart.
Click here to view the November 27, 2012 Stock Market & VIX video overview. The video runs about 17 minutes with the first 8 minutes or so discussing why I continue to maintain a longer-term bearish outlook on the market, pretty much a summary of everything that I’ve been discussing for months now. For those who wish to skip the broad markets overview, start at the 8:50 minute mark to view the $VIX overview & discussion. As always, these videos are best viewed by selecting the 720p HD quality setting once the link is opened in YouTube.
The XOMA active short trade is offering an object add-on or new short entry on the back-test of the recently broken support, which is now resistance. Assuming a short entry around the 3.00 level (the stock closed at 2.98 after making a high of 3.01 today), I would suggest a stop over 3.25 which would provide a 3:1 R/R. The sole target on this trade is at the 2.27 level, which would provide a 23.8% gain from where the stock closed today. Previous chart (from the 10/30 Biotech Video) and the updated chart below: