One of the most simple yet effective methods for determining the intermediate-term trend in the US markets would be the posture of the 20 & 50-day exponential moving average (ema) pair. When the 20-day ema is trading above the 50-day ema, the trend is bullish & bearish when below. When a faster moving average crosses below a slower moving average, such as the 20/50 pair, 50/100 pair, etc.., that is referred to as a “Death Cross” while the term for a faster moving average crossing above the slower average is referred to as a “Golden Cross”. Different traders and investors use different moving average pairs, depending on their own unique preference & trading time frame. Some also prefer simple moving averages (SMA) over EMAs.

My preference is to use what ever pair (13/39, 20/50, 50/200, etc..) and whatever type (EMA, SMA, etc..) best fits each chart and time frame that I’m trading on. In other words, if the 20/50 daily ema pair, as shown on the charts below, has done a poor job of defining the trends over the last several years then I will try different moving average pairs until I find one that has. With that being said, here are the daily charts of the SPY (S&P 500 Tracking ETF) and the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 Tracking ETF) highlighting the periods where the 20 ema was trading below the 50 ema, excluding a few very minor whipsaw signals. The QQQ went to an intermediate-term sell signal on Tuesday April 8th with the 20-ema closing below the 50-ema and the 20-ema remains solidly below the 50-ema today. The SPY on the other hand, has yet to signal a death-cross with 20/50-day ema pair although the 20-ema remains precariously close to the 50-ema at this time. Therefore, the intermediate-term trend for the US markets, as least as defined by this metric, remains unclear at this time. As such, I continue to keep things somewhat light for now although I have removed most of my short hedges as the Q’s have essentially my preferred bounce target (as per the most recent 60 minute scenarios).

QQQ 20-50 ema intermediate-term trend

QQQ 20-50 ema intermediate-term trend

SPY 20-50 ema intermediate-term trend

SPY 20-50 ema intermediate-term trend