• LL - Oct 22 201420141022
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • $SILVER - Nov 25 201420141125
  • SLV - Nov 25 201420141125
  • USO - Nov 26 201420141126


Long Setups

Long Setups are stocks or ETFs that are in a bullish technical pattern formation that are poised to break-out and provide an objective long entry. This category may also include stocks that have already triggered a entry but still offer an objective entry or add-on, such as a during a pullback to support.

Nov 262014
 
USO 60 minute Nov 26th

USO 60 minute Nov 26th

USO (crude oil etf) is currently backtesting the bullish rising wedge pattern following the recent breakout. My expectation is for a successful backtest (i.e.- prices reverse soon & move higher) but if that does not prove to be the case, the suggested stop criteria for this trade remains a 3:1 R/R calculated on the average entry price to the one’s preferred price target (T1 – T4).

As this updated 60 minute chart notes, bullish divergences are still in place as USO prints this marginal new low. As such, USO still offers an objective new entry or add-on with the appropriate stops set not too far below this backtest level.

On another topic, there are a few administrative items to mention: First, I will be leaving town today for the Thanksgiving holiday, returning over the weekend. As such, market analysis & trade updates will be few, if any, for the remainder of the week.

Next, it has recently been brought to my attention that some users may be experiencing intermittent or ongoing issues when trying to access Right Side of the Chart. We are currently working on determining the cause and extent of this issue and would appreciate any feedback from anyone who has recently or currently had issues accessing the site. If so, please click here to contact us, providing any details such any error messages, your location and the frequency of the issue.

Finally, when using the Contact form (located under the Resources tab on the menu at the top of the site), make sure to verify that your email address is entered correctly. Occasionally, after replying to a question on a trade idea, market commentary or some other inquiry, I will get an “email not delivered” auto-reply due to an invalid email address. Every inquiry received at RSOTC is replied to, typically within 24 hours (M-F). If you do not receive a reply from an inquiry that you sent via the contact form, please re-send it, verifying that the correct reply-to email address has been entered.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Nov 252014
 

SLV (Silver ETF) will trigger a new long entry or add-on to an existing position on a break above 16.05, which is a minor horizontal resistance level that lies just above the current intermediate-term downtrend line. I have updated the daily chart of $SILVER (spot silver prices), which can be found under the Live Charts page, although keep in mind this is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. The daily chart of SLV is also included below. Although the actual resistance on SLV comes in around 17.80, as usual, my price target has been set somewhat below the actual resistance in order to help minimize the chances of missing a fill, should SLV reverse just shy of resistance. Stops to be determined upon entry & additional longer-term price targets may be added.

Nov 212014
 

PPLT (Physical Platinum Shares ETF) offers an objective long entry on this breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern. T1 is the sole target at this time with additional targets likely to be added soon, depending on how the charts play out going forward. Suggested stop below 117.64 or higher if targeting only T1 although longer-term traders & investors might consider a scale-in strategy with higher price targets & wider stops.

With the $USD still in an uptrend and GLD currently still attempting to solidly take out the 115 level, more conservative traders & investors might opt to wait for those aforementioned events (dollar reversal & a confirmed GLD breakout) to occur before establishing a position. We’ve also yet to see a confirmed, end-of-day breakout in $PLAT (spot platinum prices) although keep in mind that the spot charts below are EOD (end-of-day) and reflect yesterday’s closing prices. Platinum futures are currently trading up nearly 2% so a close above the downtrend line on the daily spot chart below today is likely, barring a reversal into the close.

Daily chart of PPLT along with the daily & weekly charts of $PLAT (end-of-day spot platinum prices) below. Besides PPLT & futures, there are several other options for trading platinum although these are all thinly-traded ETFs: PGM, PTM, PLTM, LPLT, & SPPP. Click here for information on PPLT.

Nov 212014
 

SGG (Sugar ETF) will be added as an Active Long (swing) Trade & Long-term (investment) Trade here around the 41.45 level with a suggested stop slightly below the recent low of 39.55. Targets TBD. Daily chart of SGG and weekly chart of $SUGAR (spot sugar prices) below:

Nov 202014
 
USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO (Crude Oil ETF) has broken above the bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120 & 60 minute time frames, thereby triggered the second, more conventional entry or an add-on to an existing position taken inside with wedge. I’ve added a minor horizontal resistance at the 28.95 level which, if cleared, would further increase the odds of this breakout sticking.

Nov 182014
 
USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO (crude oil ETF) was added as both a semi-aggressive long entry on Thursday with the expectation of an upside breakout of this bullish falling wedge pattern as well as a Long Trade Setup with a more conventional entry to be triggered on an upside breakout of the wedge. Since Thursday, prices have continued to drift slightly lower (about 50 cents) within the wedge but remain well within the typical breakout range of a bullish falling wedge pattern. As discussed in the recent Crude Oil, Coal & US dollar video, the success of this trade hinges largely on a reversal in the dollar.

The specific price targets (suggested sell levels) have been added to this updated 120-minute chart of USO. Price targets for long-side trades are set slightly below the actual resistance level (i.e.- where a reaction is likely) in order to help increase the odds of missing a fill, should the trade reverse just shy of resistance. Suggested stops would be based on at least a 3:1 R/R from the average entry price to the preferred price target(s).

Nov 132014
 

USO (Crude Oil ETF) will be added as a semi-aggressive Active Long Trade here around the 28.75ish level. The reasoning behind this trade is based on several developments that have been recently discussed here. First of all, I continue to believe that the US Dollar is poised for a major trend reversal and the inverse relationship between the dollar & crude is highly correlated (dollar down, crude up & vice versa). Secondly, crude (as shown in the USO weekly chart below) has fallen to the bottom of a major multi-year support zone while at oversold levels (weekly RSI reading of 21.54) not seen since the plunge in crude prices during the late 2008/early 2009 meltdown in the financial markets. As recently discussed, every oversold reading for at least the last decade has either accompanied or slightly preceded major rallies in crude prices, ranging from 36% to 178%.

Zooming down to the 120-minute period chart, USO is rapidly approaching the apex of a fully mature bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place. The fact that I have decided to go long crude while prices are still trading within the wedge makes this a somewhat aggressive trade. More conventional traders might opt to wait for a confirmed breakout above the wedge before establishing a long position. The first four price targets are shown on the 120-minute chart with the exact suggested sell limit levels along with the suggested stop(s) to be added soon. Based on the case made for an impending trend reversal in the US Dollar as well as a possible trend reversal in crude prices based on my analysis of the weekly charts, USO has the potential to morph into a Long-Term Trade with additional price targets to be added, depending on how both the dollar and crude trade in the coming weeks & months.

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