• CDE - Dec 19 201420141219
  • LL - Oct 22 201420141022
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SIL - Dec 09 201420141209
  • $SILVER - Dec 09 201420141209
  • SLV - Dec 01 201420141201


Long Setups

Long Setups are stocks or ETFs that are in a bullish technical pattern formation that are poised to break-out and provide an objective long entry. This category may also include stocks that have already triggered a entry but still offer an objective entry or add-on, such as a during a pullback to support.

Dec 192014
 

CDE (Coeur Mining Inc.) has broken above the neckline of the IHS pattern, triggering the alternative entry or an add-on to the initial position taken around 4.20 (bottom of the right shoulder). Targets have been added with T3 & T4 only potential, not official, long-term targets at this time, pending a breakout of gold above the downtrend line and how silver trades going forward.

The ultimate success or failure of this trade (although it is already up over 20% from entry) will ultimately depending on whether or not my primary bullish scenarios for gold & silver play out in the coming months. Therefore, the potential 3rd & 4th targets are for longer-term traders & investors with a bullish outlook on silver & gold that took CDE at the bottom of the left shoulder, possibly adding here on the breakout, while employing wider stops. The initial targets (T1 & T2) are for typical swing traders and have a decent shot of being hit even if gold and silver only move back up to the top of their recent trading ranges before reversing.

As always, the price targets are set slightly below the actual resistance levels in order to help assure a fill, should prices reverse just shy of resistance. T4 is aligned with both horizontal resistance as well as the approximate price measurement of the inverse head & shoulders pattern (IHS). Those who established a long position towards the bottom of the right shoulder might consider raising stops to the 4.60 level at this point. Previous & updated daily charts below.   click here to view the live, annotated chart of CDE

Dec 092014
 

SIL (Silver ETF) has impulsively & convincing taken out both the downtrend & 16.05 horizontal resistance level, thereby greatly increasing the odds that the near-term upside price targets (T1 & T2) will be reached. Consider a stop below 15.65 or higher depending on your preferred price target(s).

SLV daily 2 Dec 9th

SLV daily 2 Dec 9th

 

I also continue to closely monitor the US Dollar, Euro, & Yen for the expected trend reversals, including a breakout of this bullish falling wedge pattern in the EUR/USD currency pair. Should these major currencies reverse trend, even if they just experience a healthy counter-trend correction that might only last a week or so,  that would almost certainly add to the near-term & possibly longer-term bullish case for gold, silver & mining stocks.

EUR-USD daily Dec 9th

EUR-USD daily Dec 9th

Dec 092014
 
CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE (Coeur Mining, Inc) is a silver mining stock which may be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head & shoulders reversal pattern. Aggressive traders anticipating a breakout in silver along with an accompanying rise in the mining sector could take a partial or even full position here at what could prove to be the bottom of the right shoulder, placing a stop slightly below the recent lows, say around 3.85, while adding to a full position if & when prices break above the neckline (assuming that prices do move higher from here & the symmetry of the pattern remains intact).

More conventional traders might opt to wait to see the right shoulder completely formed with a move back up to the neckline, only initiating a long position if & when prices breakout above the neckline. The approximate measured move for this pattern would bring prices to around the 7.50 level (about a 70% gain from current prices) but the exact price target(s) will follow, assuming the pattern continues to play out.

CDE will be added as an aggressive Active Long Trade here and also as a Long Trade Setup & Long-term Trade Idea with an entry to be triggered upon a break above the neckline (again, should one or two fairly symmetrical right shoulders form).

Dec 012014
 
SLV daily 2 Dec 1st

SLV daily 2 Dec 1st

With the extreme price volatility over the last two trading sessions, coupled with the fact that I had received several inquires on the precious metals over the weekend, I wanted to add to the previous comments on silver. Shortly after that last update, SLV ever so slightly exceeded the 16.05 resistance/buy trigger due to the extreme momentum-fueled run-up earlier today. Brief overshoots of support & resistance are very common when the momentum is very strong leading up to a key technical level (basically, “inertia” for a stock or etf). However, prices immediately reversed from there and moved right back to the underside of the downtrend line. For those that were/are considering going long SLV, it might be preferable to wait for the next break above 16.05 (or even better, 16.10) before establishing or adding to a position if you have not done so yet.

For those already long, my take is that today’s very bullish price action (over 100% recapture of all of Friday’s big loss in SLV) tilts the near & intermediate-term outlook from SLV back to bullish following Friday’s “win” for the bearish case. Once again, with gold & silver chopping around key support/resistance levels lately & volatility ramping up, longer-term investors & more risk-adverse traders might opt to just sit aside while the bulls & bears battle it out here.

My bias for gold & silver (short, intermediate & long-term) remains bullish but I believe that solid technical case, bullish or bearish, can be made either way right now. Quick, nimble traders might take advantage of this volatility to trade the metals long and short while more aggressive swing traders or investors might opt to continue to scale into long or short, depending on their outlook for the metals. The important thing is to make sure to not become married to that position and allow losses to get out of hand, if wrong. Best of luck & don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.

-Randy Phinney

Dec 012014
 
SLV daily Dec 1st

SLV daily Dec 1st

So far, we have some very bullish price action following the post-Thanksgiving selling in gold, silver & oil on Friday. Although a break above the downtrend line could spark a rally towards the T1 zone, a break above 16.05 remains the higher probability entry/add-on to SLV.

Note: A new target zone (T1) has been added with the former T1 now re-sequenced as T2. Updated daily chart of SLV (Silver ETF):

Nov 252014
 

SLV (Silver ETF) will trigger a new long entry or add-on to an existing position on a break above 16.05, which is a minor horizontal resistance level that lies just above the current intermediate-term downtrend line. I have updated the daily chart of $SILVER (spot silver prices), which can be found under the Live Charts page, although keep in mind this is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. The daily chart of SLV is also included below. Although the actual resistance on SLV comes in around 17.80, as usual, my price target has been set somewhat below the actual resistance in order to help minimize the chances of missing a fill, should SLV reverse just shy of resistance. Stops to be determined upon entry & additional longer-term price targets may be added.

Nov 212014
 

PPLT (Physical Platinum Shares ETF) offers an objective long entry on this breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern. T1 is the sole target at this time with additional targets likely to be added soon, depending on how the charts play out going forward. Suggested stop below 117.64 or higher if targeting only T1 although longer-term traders & investors might consider a scale-in strategy with higher price targets & wider stops.

With the $USD still in an uptrend and GLD currently still attempting to solidly take out the 115 level, more conservative traders & investors might opt to wait for those aforementioned events (dollar reversal & a confirmed GLD breakout) to occur before establishing a position. We’ve also yet to see a confirmed, end-of-day breakout in $PLAT (spot platinum prices) although keep in mind that the spot charts below are EOD (end-of-day) and reflect yesterday’s closing prices. Platinum futures are currently trading up nearly 2% so a close above the downtrend line on the daily spot chart below today is likely, barring a reversal into the close.

Daily chart of PPLT along with the daily & weekly charts of $PLAT (end-of-day spot platinum prices) below. Besides PPLT & futures, there are several other options for trading platinum although these are all thinly-traded ETFs: PGM, PTM, PLTM, LPLT, & SPPP. Click here for information on PPLT.

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