• ALK - Jul 24 201420140724
  • AON - Jul 25 201420140725
  • AXP - Jul 25 201420140725
  • BXS - Jul 22 201420140722
  • CDE - Jun 27 201420140627
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • CORN - Jul 28 201420140728
  • COWN - May 07 201220120507
  • FISV - Jul 23 201420140723
  • FRC - Jul 16 201420140716
  • GDX - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GDXJ - Jun 24 201420140624
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • HIBB - Jul 25 201420140725
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KATE - Jul 29 201420140729
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KRE - Jul 15 201420140715
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • PACW - Jul 17 201420140717
  • PNC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • SAVE - Jul 24 201420140724
  • WEAT - Jul 25 201420140725
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403


Trade Setups

Trade Setups are potential trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Jul 292014
 
KATE daily July 29th

KATE daily July 29th

KATE (Kate Spade & Co.) will trigger a short entry on the open tomorrow unless the stock opens above 38.90. T2 is my preferred swing target at this time. Stops should be based upon one’s preferred target although a relatively tight stop can be placed above 41.10.

Note: KATE is scheduled to report earnings on Aug 14th. Also note that I had mocked up this chart shortly after 3pm ET with the intention sending out the setup well before the close. However, I decided to add the following market commentary & charts below which took quite a while put together. Hence, my original entry criteria was met by the close today but will have to be changed to the open tomorrow as per the comments above.     Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of KATE

On a related note, on KATE as well as several of the recent new trade setups, I have included the upcoming earnings release dates (if scheduled in the near-future) as we are still in the midst of earnings season. In last week’s post titled Earnings: To Hold or Fold?” I had discussed how each trader must make the decision whether or not to Continue reading »

Jul 292014
 

LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) will trigger a short entry on a break below the daily uptrend line. In addition to the divergent high in place on the daily time frame, LYV is also challenging its all-time highs while the RSI is also turning lower following a divergent high that was put in at extreme overbought levels. Stops TBD upon entry.  Note: LYV is scheduled to report earnings this Thursday, July 31st, after the market close.    Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of LYV

Jul 282014
 

CORN (Corn ETF) offers a somewhat aggressive entry here on the break above this 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern. CORN will also offer a second objective entry or add-on to an existing position taken here if & when prices move solidly (5 cents+) above the top of the July 21st gap (26.67). I refer to this current entry as somewhat aggressive for two reasons: First, that July 21st sizable gap is not too far overhead. Gaps, particularly large gaps, often act as support & resistance, especially on the initial tests of those gaps following their creation. Therefore, taking a long-side breakout in relatively close proximity to resistance may limit the upside potential on this trade, should prices ultimately fail to surmount the 26.67 level.

The other reason that an entry here is somewhat aggressive is due to the fact that CORN might go on to backtest this 60 minute falling wedge at lower levels. As the weekly chart below highlights, $CORN (spot corn price) has been in a very powerful downtrend (actually, a third reason this is an aggressive entry) and is currently trading in what I call No-man’s Land, which is when a stock is trading in an area well above & well below any decent support and resistance levels. When trading these “catch a falling knife” trades, where a stock is in free-fall mode yet I believe a powerful trend reversal is imminent, I prefer the stock to be approaching a key support level on the weekly chart while setting up in a bullish chart formation on the daily and/or intraday charts. In the case of $CORN, the next solid support level (340ish) is about 8% below current levels.

With that being said, I still see enough potential for a possible trend reversal from current levels to initiate a starter position in CORN (CORN ETF). An ideal scenario in the upcoming days would be a gap above the top of the July 21st gap (26.67), to put in place an Island Cluster Reversal bottom, with the “island cluster” being the group of candlesticks that were formed over the last week or so. That would be a very bullish technical event & one in which I would bring CORN to a fully position. As of now, my plan is to establish a partial position on the breakout of this 60 minute falling wedge, adding if and only if price move above the top of that July 21st gap (by at least 5 cents, to help avoid a false breakout). I plan to use a stop below 25.60 in case $CORN does want to go on to test that 340 weekly support level.

CORN is being added a both a typically swing trade entry & setup as well as a Long-Term Trade Idea & Setup, as this trade is based largely off the weekly time frame and has the potential to morph into a long-term trend trade with additional targets likely to be added, should we get some decent technical evidence of a likely trend reversal in the upcoming weeks. Long-term traders & investors might consider a wider stop that that suggested above for typical swing traders. A stop somewhat below the 340 level on the $CORN weekly chart would still provide an attractive R/R if target the top of the R2 zone which comes in around 550.

Jul 252014
 
WEAT daily July 25th

WEAT daily July 25th

WEAT (Wheat ETF) will trigger a long entry on a break above this steep downtrend line. For a large part, commodities have been my bread & butter so far this year (pun intended) with a long-side trade on WEAT earlier this year (not posted on the site) following the break above that previous downtrend line as well some very lucrative trades in the miners, catching the bulk of both of the major rips in the gold & silver mining stocks this year (which are once again starting to look interesting as the pullback/consolidation that I was looking for to help work off off the recent divergences & overbought conditions may be complete…more on the miners soon).  Copper, including the Copper ETF, JJC, may also be setting up for a nice long-side swing trade (thanks for bringing that to my attention B.G.) in addition to some other commodities as well.

Stops on WEAT should be dependent on one’s preferred price target(s) although a relatively tight stop, should WEAT breakout soon, could be placed slightly below the recent lows. There’s also a good chance that I may adjust the price targets depending on the chart of $WHEAT (spot wheat prices). Additional profit targets may be added as well.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of WEAT

Jul 252014
 

HIBB (Hibbett Sports Inc) will trigger a short entry on any intraday break below 49.96. An alternative, more conservative entry would be to wait for a close below 50.00 (shorting just before the 4pm market close if the stock is poised to close below that level). Suggested stop above 53 (or lower, if only targeting T1). Although the actually support level comes in right about 50.00, my preference is to give it a buffer of about 4-5 cents below that level to avoid a premature entry, should we get a brief intraday break below support that proves to be a whipsaw signal.

Typically when a stock falls to a well-defined support level, such as this, there are two ways to view a trading opportunity. Those bullish on the stock, believing that the stock will likely reverse trend and make a lasting bounce off that support level will obvious look to position long on or near the tag off support with a stop-loss order placed somewhat below. Those who believe the support level is likely to give way in the near-future will look to position short on a break below support with a stop somewhat above, in case the breakdown proves to be a bear-trap or whipsaw signal.

Some of the factors for my preference to view HIBB as a potential short candidate vs. a long-side trading opportunity on the next tag of the 50 level is based on my interpretation of the recent price action on both the daily & weekly charts. Note the large divergences between the stock price and the OBV (On Balance Volume) leading up tot he  recent all-time highs in HIBB (daily chart) in addition to the impulsive selling following the late December breakout to new all-time highs (typically a bullish event but bearish when the breakout fails shortly afterwards on impulsive selling). On the weekly chart we can see that HIBB fell below its bull market uptrend line back in mid-August, going on to make a successful backtest of the trendline upon that failed breakout to new highs in late December. The negative divergences in place when the highs were put in during the failed breakout in December helps add to the longer-term bearish case in the stock.

Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of HIBB

Jul 252014
 
AXP daily July 25th

AXP daily July 25th

AXP (American Express) will trigger a short entry below 91.95 (this morning’s reaction low). My current preferred swing target at this time is T2 at 84.10 with a final target, T3 at 78.67. Suggested stops would be dependent on one’s preferred profit target(s), using an R/R of 3:1 or better.

Note: AXP is scheduled to report earnings next Tuesday, July 29th, after the close.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of AXP

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