• ALK - Oct 01 201420141001
  • COWN - May 07 201220120507
  • FFIN - Aug 14 201420140814
  • FISV - Oct 13 201420141013
  • FRC - Oct 13 201420141013
  • GMCR - Sep 25 201420140925
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KIE - Jul 31 201420140731
  • KRE - Jul 31 201420140731
  • LL - Oct 22 201420141022
  • LYV - Jul 29 201420140729
  • OZRK - Sep 23 201420140923
  • PACW - Jul 17 201420140717
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • $RUT-IWM - Oct 17 201420141017
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • $SILVER - Nov 25 201420141125
  • SLV - Nov 25 201420141125
  • $SPX-SPY - Sep 25 201420140925
  • TSLA - Sep 23 201420140923
  • USO - Nov 20 201420141120
  • WAB - Sep 15 201420140915


Trade Setups

Trade Setups are potential trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Nov 252014
 

SLV (Silver ETF) will trigger a new long entry or add-on to an existing position on a break above 16.05, which is a minor horizontal resistance level that lies just above the current intermediate-term downtrend line. I have updated the daily chart of $SILVER (spot silver prices), which can be found under the Live Charts page, although keep in mind this is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. The daily chart of SLV is also included below. Although the actual resistance on SLV comes in around 17.80, as usual, my price target has been set somewhat below the actual resistance in order to help minimize the chances of missing a fill, should SLV reverse just shy of resistance. Stops to be determined upon entry & additional longer-term price targets may be added.

Nov 212014
 

PPLT (Physical Platinum Shares ETF) offers an objective long entry on this breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern. T1 is the sole target at this time with additional targets likely to be added soon, depending on how the charts play out going forward. Suggested stop below 117.64 or higher if targeting only T1 although longer-term traders & investors might consider a scale-in strategy with higher price targets & wider stops.

With the $USD still in an uptrend and GLD currently still attempting to solidly take out the 115 level, more conservative traders & investors might opt to wait for those aforementioned events (dollar reversal & a confirmed GLD breakout) to occur before establishing a position. We’ve also yet to see a confirmed, end-of-day breakout in $PLAT (spot platinum prices) although keep in mind that the spot charts below are EOD (end-of-day) and reflect yesterday’s closing prices. Platinum futures are currently trading up nearly 2% so a close above the downtrend line on the daily spot chart below today is likely, barring a reversal into the close.

Daily chart of PPLT along with the daily & weekly charts of $PLAT (end-of-day spot platinum prices) below. Besides PPLT & futures, there are several other options for trading platinum although these are all thinly-traded ETFs: PGM, PTM, PLTM, LPLT, & SPPP. Click here for information on PPLT.

Nov 212014
 

SGG (Sugar ETF) will be added as an Active Long (swing) Trade & Long-term (investment) Trade here around the 41.45 level with a suggested stop slightly below the recent low of 39.55. Targets TBD. Daily chart of SGG and weekly chart of $SUGAR (spot sugar prices) below:

Nov 202014
 
USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO (Crude Oil ETF) has broken above the bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120 & 60 minute time frames, thereby triggered the second, more conventional entry or an add-on to an existing position taken inside with wedge. I’ve added a minor horizontal resistance at the 28.95 level which, if cleared, would further increase the odds of this breakout sticking.

Nov 182014
 
USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO (crude oil ETF) was added as both a semi-aggressive long entry on Thursday with the expectation of an upside breakout of this bullish falling wedge pattern as well as a Long Trade Setup with a more conventional entry to be triggered on an upside breakout of the wedge. Since Thursday, prices have continued to drift slightly lower (about 50 cents) within the wedge but remain well within the typical breakout range of a bullish falling wedge pattern. As discussed in the recent Crude Oil, Coal & US dollar video, the success of this trade hinges largely on a reversal in the dollar.

The specific price targets (suggested sell levels) have been added to this updated 120-minute chart of USO. Price targets for long-side trades are set slightly below the actual resistance level (i.e.- where a reaction is likely) in order to help increase the odds of missing a fill, should the trade reverse just shy of resistance. Suggested stops would be based on at least a 3:1 R/R from the average entry price to the preferred price target(s).

Nov 132014
 

USO (Crude Oil ETF) will be added as a semi-aggressive Active Long Trade here around the 28.75ish level. The reasoning behind this trade is based on several developments that have been recently discussed here. First of all, I continue to believe that the US Dollar is poised for a major trend reversal and the inverse relationship between the dollar & crude is highly correlated (dollar down, crude up & vice versa). Secondly, crude (as shown in the USO weekly chart below) has fallen to the bottom of a major multi-year support zone while at oversold levels (weekly RSI reading of 21.54) not seen since the plunge in crude prices during the late 2008/early 2009 meltdown in the financial markets. As recently discussed, every oversold reading for at least the last decade has either accompanied or slightly preceded major rallies in crude prices, ranging from 36% to 178%.

Zooming down to the 120-minute period chart, USO is rapidly approaching the apex of a fully mature bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place. The fact that I have decided to go long crude while prices are still trading within the wedge makes this a somewhat aggressive trade. More conventional traders might opt to wait for a confirmed breakout above the wedge before establishing a long position. The first four price targets are shown on the 120-minute chart with the exact suggested sell limit levels along with the suggested stop(s) to be added soon. Based on the case made for an impending trend reversal in the US Dollar as well as a possible trend reversal in crude prices based on my analysis of the weekly charts, USO has the potential to morph into a Long-Term Trade with additional price targets to be added, depending on how both the dollar and crude trade in the coming weeks & months.

Oct 222014
 

LL (Lumber Liquidators) was a recent Short Trade idea that hit the second target for a 38% gain back in July. I had discussed the likelihood of extending the final target to T3, which was listed as the potential final target on the previously posted charts. However, LL hit the second target before I had a chance to make that official and so I had to go ahead and consider the trade completed when T2 was hit (as it was too late to make T3 the final target). Fast-forward to today & LL has finally reached that T3 level, which is the level where the R/R no longer warrants remaining short (for those that held) as the odds for a reversal are quite elevated at this time. Final targets are set at the level where the R/R no longer warrants holding the position & more often than not, a substantial & often lasting reversal in the stock is expected.

As the updated daily chart (second chart) below shows, LL is trading at the bottom of what appears to be a bullish falling wedge pattern complete with positive divergence forming on both the MACD & RSI, all while trading just above that key horizontal support level (the previous third target). With the current near-term & intermediate-term trends still bearish for now, I’m still considering long trades as counter-trend trades until/unless the charts say otherwise. I also have some concerns about LL as there is a thin-zone just below the T3 support level which runs down to about the 34.25-34.10 level. If LL were to make a solid break below T3 (about the 48.90 level), there’s a good chance that the stock will back-fill that thin zone. Counter-trade or not, I’m looking for some new long trade ideas for both hedging exposure (for those positioned net short) as well as for those traders position net long, with a longer-term bullish outlook.

With that being said, LL offers an objective long entry here around current levels (51.40ish). This holds especially true for those with a longer-term bullish outlook who believe that this most recent sell0ff is over and the markets are headed much higher. My first target would be the former T2 level, with the actually target set just below the bottom of the July 9th gap at 69.65 (target = 69.55) with a suggest stop on a daily close or solid move below 48.60.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of LL

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