• AUY - Apr 16 201420140416
  • AVGO - Apr 04 201420140404
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • COWN - May 07 201220120507
  • EVR - Apr 03 201420140403
  • FCH - Apr 11 201420140411
  • GDX - Apr 01 201420140401
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • HAIN - Feb 07 201420140207
  • HIMX - Apr 14 201420140414
  • HMN - Apr 09 201420140409
  • HMY - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HSNI - Jan 21 201420140121
  • KOL - Mar 06 201420140306
  • LUV - Apr 09 201420140409
  • MU - Mar 13 201420140313
  • NEM - Mar 26 201420140326
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • ODP - Mar 19 201420140319
  • P - Mar 25 201420140325
  • POWI - Apr 14 201420140414
  • QLGC - Mar 19 201420140319
  • SIL - Mar 27 201420140327
  • $SILVER - Mar 27 201420140327
  • SNDK - Apr 04 201420140404
  • SSI - Jan 13 201420140113
  • SUSS - Apr 09 201420140409
  • SYNA - Apr 10 201420140410
  • TASR - Mar 27 201420140327
  • TJX - Jan 24 201420140124
  • TNK - May 21 201320130521
  • WFC - Apr 09 201420140409
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403


Trade Setups

Trade Setups are potential trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Apr 162014
 

AUY (Yamana Gold Inc) will be added as an Active Long Trade & Long-term Trade idea around current levels (8.10ish). As this is an attempt to catch a bottom in the stock which has now fallen over 60% from its peak just over 6 months ago, AUY should be considered an aggressive trade. That, coupled with the inherent extreme volatility in the gold mining stocks, favors a downward adjustment in position sizing on this trade (as little as 1/2 – 1/4 my typical position size).

What I like about AUY, other than the fact that I continue to believe the gold mining sector may still likely be in the early stages of a new bull market that began in late December, is how the stock has broken below this key weekly support line. This breakdown may likely prove to be a bear-trap (i.e.- a false breakdown), with prices moving sharply higher if it does not stick. It could take a week or so for prices to close back above the weekly support line and if so, a higher probability, more conservative entry (or add-on to an initial position taken here) would be on a weekly close back above that level (roughly 8.40). Another technical development supporting the bullish case is the fact that we have positive divergence either in place or forming on the weekly, daily & 60 minute time frames.

Once again this is a potential high risk/high reward long-term trade idea. With the first target (T1) 24% overhead and the final target (T3) about 55% higher, one must factor in the total dollar loss if the trade does not work out. Using a preferred 3:1 R/R ratio, that would allow for a stop about 8% lower if targeting T1 and about 18% lower if targeting T2. Of course tighter stops can be used but when trading the mining stocks, I find that trading a smaller position size to accommodate for more liberal stops significantly reduces the chances of being prematurely stopped out on trades that go on to hit their profit targets as the daily price swings in the mining stocks are unusually large.

 

Apr 142014
 

Based upon further review of the charts, I have made a slight adjustment to the profit target on the HIMX (Himax Technologies Inc) short trade. Although the actual support level comes in around 8.18, T1 has been changed from 8.20 to 8.30 in order to help increase the odds of a fill when covering this trade as the possibility of a powerful oversold bounce are rapidly increasing.

HIMX is trading down sharply today and is down about 30% since the last posted entry less than 3 weeks ago. Although I may still ad one or more additional downside targets to this trade, my preference will be to book full profits at T1 and possibly add HIMX back as a new short trade if we get a new objective short entry following a decent bounce off the 8.20ish level.

Click here to view the live daily chart of HIMX

HIMX daily April 14th

HIMX daily April 14th

Apr 142014
 

POWI looks to offer an objective short entry following the break below this beairsh rising wedge pattern. T2 is currently my preferred swing target with a suggested stop over 64.50 (lower if only targeting T1). Although my preference is to establish a short position here, an alternative entry would be on a possible bounce to backtest the wedge from below which is certainly a possibility although not my preferred scenario.

POWI daily April 14th

POWI daily April 14th

Apr 112014
 

FCH (Felcor Lodging Trust Inc) will be added as an Active Short Trade here on the break below this daily rising wedge pattern. Although I typically avoid late day Friday entries, I did take a starter position on the breakdown here. More conservative traders might wait to see some downside follow-thru on FCH next week.

Adding to the longer-term bearish case for this trade, FCH has recently made an over-extended run into key multi-year resistance as shown on the weekly chart below. As I wanted to get this trade idea out asap, I haven’t had time to clean these charts up yet but I do plan to follow-up with a link to a live daily chart which will also list a firm price target (or targets). As of now, I have the target zone that runs from around 7.30 – 7.50 as my sole profit target but again, that may be slightly revised if this trade begins to get some traction.

FCH daily April 11th

FCH daily April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

 

Apr 112014
 

HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corp) was posted as a Trade Setup on Wednesday of this week and went on to trigger a short entry yesterday on a move below 28.33. I’ve added the 200-day ema to this updated daily chart to illustrate how well that moving average has acted as support and resistance, defining the recent up & down trends in HMY. With prices currently sitting on the 200 ema, any solid break below will trigger the next sell signal in the stock and increase the odds of this short trade reaching the price targets.

HMN daily April 11th

HMN daily April 11th

Apr 102014
 

This trade setup in SNYA (Synaptics Inc) was passed along to me by a follower of the site (thanks D.C.) yesterday and broke below the uptrend line on a sharp move lower today. Since my price alert didn’t trigger until just before an hour before the close, I decided to hold off on posting an entry as I usually avoid late day pattern breakouts, especially if they are caused by a strong move in the broad market as today. With that being said, I still have numerous trade ideas to share so I figured that it would be best to post this one now for those who are looking for some short-side trade candidates. As I’m posting this setup after-hours, my preference would be to establish a short entry on SYNA if the stock is trading close to or above where it closed today (56.18) or higher, as long as prices remain below the trendline. Targets are listed on this daily chart with the specific suggested buy-to-cover levels to be added soon.

SNYA daily April 10th

SNYA daily April 10th

Apr 092014
 

WFC (Wells Fargo Corp) will be added as an Active Short Trade at the open tomorrow as prices have recently broken below this second sub-uptrend line. A longer term bearish case for the stock is also made on the weekly chart below. Price target levels are marked on the daily chart with the exact suggested buy-to-cover levels to follow. Suggested stop on a close above the recent high of 50.49.

Click here to view the live daily chart of WFC

WFC daily April 9th

WFC daily April 9th

WFC weekly April 9th

WFC weekly April 9th

 

Apr 092014
 

SUSS (Susser Holdings) looks have a lot of potential as a longer-term swing short trade.  Based on my interpretation of both the daily & weekly charts, I would say that the 4 year, 700% run in this stock is in the terminal stages right now. I’m looking at SUSS as a long-term swing trade candidate with the potential for a nearly 50% drop from current levels. However, this trade idea has yet to trigger an entry & is only a trade setup at this time.

SUSS is currently flirting with a confluence of major support as the stock wedges higher with substantial divergences in place on both the daily & weekly time frames. The first major support would be the primary uptrend line generated off of the April 2010 lows. Not far below that SUSS has both horizontal support around the 57.50ish area as well as the 40 week/200 day exponential moving average, which currently comes in at 57.47. Although I often short trendline breaks, I will typically hold off if there is decent support not far below. An objective short entry would be on either any intraweek break below the Jan 26th reaction low of 57.26 (plus a penny or so) -OR- on a weekly close below both 57.26 and the 200-day/40-week ema. Using a weekly close when trading off of the weekly chart, as shown below, helps to reduced the chances of being stopped out, should the stock make a brief, intra-week break below support. The benefit of taking the intra-week break of support is that it may provide a better entry price, should the stock continue to move down sharply by the end of the week. Which entry criteria one chooses would depend on their own unique trading style and risk tolerance.

Click here to view the live weekly chart of SUSS

SUSS weekly April 9th

SUSS weekly April 9th

Apr 092014
 

LUV (Southwest Airlines Co) looks to offer an objective short entry here around the 24.00 area as it backtests the recently broken bearish rising wedge pattern. The first price target, T1, is 20.32 with T2, my preferred & final target at 19.08.  The suggested stop for either target would be on a move above the 25 level.

Click here to view the live chart of LUV

LUV daily April 9th

LUV daily April 9th

s2Member®
Web Analytics