• CDE - Dec 09 201420141209
  • COWN - May 07 201220120507
  • GMCR - Dec 01 201420141201
  • ILMN - Dec 02 201420141202
  • LL - Oct 22 201420141022
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SIL - Dec 09 201420141209
  • $SILVER - Dec 09 201420141209
  • SLV - Dec 01 201420141201
  • TSLA - Sep 23 201420140923


Trade Setups

Trade Setups are potential trade or longer-term investment candidates that are setting up in a well defined chart pattern. Once/if the pattern triggers (i.e.- a break-out or break-down), the trade idea will become an Active Trade until either the price target(s) are hit or the trade is stopped out. However, some Active Trades will also remain in the Trade Setups category after triggering an entry as long as the trade still provides an objective entry. Therefore, many trades on this site will often be assigned to multiple categories.

Dec 092014
 

SIL (Silver ETF) has impulsively & convincing taken out both the downtrend & 16.05 horizontal resistance level, thereby greatly increasing the odds that the near-term upside price targets (T1 & T2) will be reached. Consider a stop below 15.65 or higher depending on your preferred price target(s).

SLV daily 2 Dec 9th

SLV daily 2 Dec 9th

 

I also continue to closely monitor the US Dollar, Euro, & Yen for the expected trend reversals, including a breakout of this bullish falling wedge pattern in the EUR/USD currency pair. Should these major currencies reverse trend, even if they just experience a healthy counter-trend correction that might only last a week or so,  that would almost certainly add to the near-term & possibly longer-term bullish case for gold, silver & mining stocks.

EUR-USD daily Dec 9th

EUR-USD daily Dec 9th

Dec 092014
 
CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE (Coeur Mining, Inc) is a silver mining stock which may be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head & shoulders reversal pattern. Aggressive traders anticipating a breakout in silver along with an accompanying rise in the mining sector could take a partial or even full position here at what could prove to be the bottom of the right shoulder, placing a stop slightly below the recent lows, say around 3.85, while adding to a full position if & when prices break above the neckline (assuming that prices do move higher from here & the symmetry of the pattern remains intact).

More conventional traders might opt to wait to see the right shoulder completely formed with a move back up to the neckline, only initiating a long position if & when prices breakout above the neckline. The approximate measured move for this pattern would bring prices to around the 7.50 level (about a 70% gain from current prices) but the exact price target(s) will follow, assuming the pattern continues to play out.

CDE will be added as an aggressive Active Long Trade here and also as a Long Trade Setup & Long-term Trade Idea with an entry to be triggered upon a break above the neckline (again, should one or two fairly symmetrical right shoulders form).

Dec 022014
 

ILMN (Illumina Inc) offers an aggressive short entry while near the top of this large rising wedge pattern with a more conservative/conventional entry or add-on to come on a break below the bottom of the wedge. Suggested stops based on a 3:1 R/R to one’s preferred target(s). Barring a large gap down, ILMN will be added as an Active Long Trade at the open tomorrow.

The large rising wedge pattern on the daily (first) chart below can also been viewed on the weekly (second) chart along with the percentage drops that followed all other similar weekly divergent tops over the last decade (39-68% corrections). Two of those three previous corrections bear markets in ILMN occurred while the US broad markets were solidly entrenched in bull markets (2006 & 2011), highlighting the fact that money can be made shorting the right stocks at the right time in a bull market. My plan for this trade is to take a fractional position here near the top of the pattern, adding to the position if & when prices break below the bottom of the wedge although I may also decide to cover my position on the initial tag of the uptrend line (then shorting a full position on a break below the pattern).

Of course the markets are dynamic and as such, so are my trading plans. T2 at 136.10, which is set just above the 134 horizontal, is the current preferred swing target at this time. Should prices ultimately make a solid break below the 127 support level (not drawn on this chart), especially if the broad market were to be in a confirmed downtrend at the time, the chances would be good for a back-fill of the thin zone that runs from 134 down to the 86 level.

Dec 012014
 
SLV daily 2 Dec 1st

SLV daily 2 Dec 1st

With the extreme price volatility over the last two trading sessions, coupled with the fact that I had received several inquires on the precious metals over the weekend, I wanted to add to the previous comments on silver. Shortly after that last update, SLV ever so slightly exceeded the 16.05 resistance/buy trigger due to the extreme momentum-fueled run-up earlier today. Brief overshoots of support & resistance are very common when the momentum is very strong leading up to a key technical level (basically, “inertia” for a stock or etf). However, prices immediately reversed from there and moved right back to the underside of the downtrend line. For those that were/are considering going long SLV, it might be preferable to wait for the next break above 16.05 (or even better, 16.10) before establishing or adding to a position if you have not done so yet.

For those already long, my take is that today’s very bullish price action (over 100% recapture of all of Friday’s big loss in SLV) tilts the near & intermediate-term outlook from SLV back to bullish following Friday’s “win” for the bearish case. Once again, with gold & silver chopping around key support/resistance levels lately & volatility ramping up, longer-term investors & more risk-adverse traders might opt to just sit aside while the bulls & bears battle it out here.

My bias for gold & silver (short, intermediate & long-term) remains bullish but I believe that solid technical case, bullish or bearish, can be made either way right now. Quick, nimble traders might take advantage of this volatility to trade the metals long and short while more aggressive swing traders or investors might opt to continue to scale into long or short, depending on their outlook for the metals. The important thing is to make sure to not become married to that position and allow losses to get out of hand, if wrong. Best of luck & don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.

-Randy Phinney

Dec 012014
 
GMCR daily Dec 1st

GMCR daily Dec 1st

GMCR (Keurig Green Mountain Inc) offers an objective short entry here around the 140 level following the recent long-term uptrend line break & the more recent bear-flagging price action. T3 is both the current preferred & final target at this time. Suggested stop over 155 or lower (if only targeting T1 or T2).

GMCR was added as a short trade setup on Sept 25th with an pending entry based on a break below the 125.35 level. The stock has remained above that level since then but just recently went on to breakdown below the 2+ year primary uptrend line and has set up in what appears to be a bear flag pattern over the last several trading session. With the GMCR appearing to break down from that flag pattern (best viewed on the 60 minute time frame) by moving impulsive lower today, the stock offers an objective short entry around current levels. Please note that the price targets have been modified since the previous short entry was posted a couple of months ago. Updated daily chart shown.

Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of GMCR.

Dec 012014
 
SLV daily Dec 1st

SLV daily Dec 1st

So far, we have some very bullish price action following the post-Thanksgiving selling in gold, silver & oil on Friday. Although a break above the downtrend line could spark a rally towards the T1 zone, a break above 16.05 remains the higher probability entry/add-on to SLV.

Note: A new target zone (T1) has been added with the former T1 now re-sequenced as T2. Updated daily chart of SLV (Silver ETF):

Nov 252014
 

SLV (Silver ETF) will trigger a new long entry or add-on to an existing position on a break above 16.05, which is a minor horizontal resistance level that lies just above the current intermediate-term downtrend line. I have updated the daily chart of $SILVER (spot silver prices), which can be found under the Live Charts page, although keep in mind this is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. The daily chart of SLV is also included below. Although the actual resistance on SLV comes in around 17.80, as usual, my price target has been set somewhat below the actual resistance in order to help minimize the chances of missing a fill, should SLV reverse just shy of resistance. Stops to be determined upon entry & additional longer-term price targets may be added.

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