• ACI - Aug 13 201420140813
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • ANR - Aug 07 201420140807
  • AU - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUQ - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • CDE - Jun 27 201420140627
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • CORN - Jul 28 201420140728
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GDX - Aug 12 201420140812
  • GDXJ - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GFI - Aug 28 201420140828
  • GG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GLD - Aug 21 201420140821
  • $GOLD - Aug 21 201420140821
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • IAG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • REMX - Aug 08 201420140808
  • $SILVER - Aug 05 201420140805
  • SLV - Aug 05 201420140805
  • SLW - Jul 30 201420140730
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403


Long-term Trades- Setups

Long-term Trades are trade or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or more. This category of trade ideas might be useful for the longer-term swing trader or investor looking for investment ideas to supplement their existing portfolio and prefers a less active, more hands-off approach to investing.

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

Aug 282014
 

GFI (Gold Fields Ltd) was one of my top picks covered in the July 30th Gold & Gold Mining Sector video.  At the time, had pointed out the nice basing pattern that GFI had formed with the next buy signal to come on a break above the 4.38-4.40 resistance level, which GDI has clearly taken out this week. This gold mining stock has shown some nice relative strength lately having gained 16% since that video was posted less than a month ago while the gold mining sector (GDX) has just chopped around since then and is currently trading slightly below its July 30th close.

GFI was added as a Long-Term Trade setup when the video was published and following the breakout above the 4.40 resistance level, is now considered an Active Long-term Trade. However, despite the recent bullish price action in GFI, I did want to point out that GFI is now approaching a key long-term resistance level that comes in around the 4.70 area as shown on the weekly chart below. Any solid weekly close above that level will trigger the next long-term buy signal for an entry or add-on to an existing position in GFI. Of course, as always, it is imperative to manage your positions in the individual mining stocks along with the charts of both gold ($GOLD/GLD) & the gold mining sector ($HUI/GDX) as the success or failure of these trades, especially when positioning as long-term swing or trend trades, will largely depend on where gold prices are heading.

Bottom line: Although some gold & silver stocks have outperformed the mining sector and may trigger buy signals as they break out of bullish chart patterns or above key downtrend lines or resistance levels, gold & silver, although still looking bullish from a longer-term perspective, remain in somewhat precarious technical positions at this time and still have some work to do in the near-term in order to help solidify the case that a new bull market is underway. Therefore, make sure to use stops and position sizing commensurate with your own trading style & risk tolerance when trading the miners along with proper diversification, particularly if trading individual names vs. the diversified mining ETFs such as GDX, GDXJ, & SIL.

Aug 212014
 
GLD 4 hour Aug 21st

GLD 4 hour Aug 21st

GLD (Gold ETF) has been consolidating within this large symmetrical triangle & is poised to gap towards the bottom of the pattern (along with horizontal support) today. A daily close below the triangle might open the door for a test of the mid & late 2013 lows in GLD. If this intersecting horizontal + trendline support level around the 122.80-123 area is taken out (a daily close below), the next decent support level before a test of the mid & late 2013 lows comes in around 119.40. I favor a bounce off the 123 level but will not be adding any more exposure to gold or the mining sector should prices move below the triangle pattern.

Aug 152014
 

I didn’t hit me until I saw the Russian/Ukraine-induced reversal in GLD a few minutes ago when I checked the 60 minute chart on GLD that I had mistakenly listed the support on GLD which gold was likely to find support at earlier today. In the post that I drafted shortly before the open today I had mistakenly referred to the 124.40 support level in GLD as the 125.40 support level. I had been watching gold futures and the streaming intraday chart of GLD (shown below) and in a rush to try and get that post out as close to opening bell as possible, as I was expecting a likely reversal off the 124.40 area, I had mistakenly referred to it as 125.40 and also mistakenly added that level to the updated 60 minute chart even though GLD was trading about $1 below that level at the time as shown here in the intraday chart.

 

Obviously the reports of an incident with that Russian convoy in the Ukraine that hit the headlines around the time GLD bottomed today at 124.42 certainly gave some tailwinds to the bounce off that level today. Call it lucky timing or the charts playing out (or a little of both) but so far, we are now looking at a successful backfill of that large Aug 6th gap that took GLD clearly out of that 60-120 minute bullish falling wedge pattern. From here, a break above the recent highs of 126.81 would be the next buy signal in GLD while a break below the 124.40 support and especially the 123 support level be bearish.

Aug 152014
 
GLD 60 minute Aug 15th

GLD 60 minute Aug 15th

By the time I get this post out, GLD should have gapped down at the open to around this support level that comes in around 125.40, a level defined by several recent price reactions as well as three gaps. I am viewing this as a opportunity to add some more exposure to GLD & the mining sector and as long as GLD remains above the 123ish support level, the intermediate-term outlook is intact IMO. Note, this chart was made in pre-market & does not yet show the opening prices although I have added the 125.40ish support level.

Aug 132014
 
ACI daily Aug 13th

ACI daily Aug 13th

ACI (Arch Coal Inc) is one of several coal stocks on my watchlist that may be poised for primary trend reversal following a powerful bear market in the coal related stocks. ACI will trigger a long entry on any move over 3.25, which will have clearly taken the stock above both this bullish falling wedge pattern as well as this resistance zone. Suggested stops using a 3:1 R/R based on one’s preferred target(s).  Also note that I currently have three likely profit targets listed, T1-T3, along with the first decent resistance level, R1, which comes in around the 3.45.-3.48 area. That level could also be used as an early target for those preferring to book quick profits while there are also two additional resistance levels above T3 which may be added as additional price targets, depending on how both ACI and the coal sector perform going forward.   click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of ACI

As recently mentioned in the ANR long trade entry post (which can be viewed here), I’ve been monitoring some potentially bullish developments on the coal sector and have about a half-dozen coal stocks on my watchlist at this time. Some of those charts need a little more work while there are a few others that have either recently broken out or are getting close and as such, will be added as Trade Setups and/or Active Trades soon.

Also keep in mind that although the coal sector, including the ETF KOL, appears to be carving out a potential bottom, it is still too early to officially declare that the bear market in the coal stocks has ended and as such, best to adjust your position size on these trade ideas accordingly, especially on some of the lower priced and more volatile coal stocks, should you decide to play the sector via individual stocks vs. the KOL ETF (which is not yet an Active Trade at this time).

ACI will be added as both a Long Trade Setup (a typical swing trade, with an expected holding period ranging from a couple of weeks to several months) as well as a Long-term Trade Setup (trend or investment trades with above average return potential and holding periods of typically 6-12 months or more).

Aug 122014
 
GDX weekly Aug 12th

GDX weekly Aug 12th

The Inverse Head & Shoulders bottoming pattern on the GDX (Gold Miners ETF) is now fully formed with volume patterns confirming this potentially powerful reversal pattern. With prices currently up against the neckline, any solid weekly close above the pattern would trigger a long-term buy signal for the miners although my preference will be to see any breakout of this IHS pattern confirmed by a bullish breakout in GLD, as per the recently discussed criteria. My price target, should both GDX and GLD confirm the long-term buy signals, would be the 38.50-39.00 area with the first and only major resistance area before then expected to come in around the 31.30ish area. As such, should both GLD & GDX trigger these long-term buy signals, my expectation would be to see the miners play out per this scenario drawn with the orange lines: A sharp move towards the 31.30 area, followed by a tradeable pullback off that resistance area, then followed by one final thrust up to the 38.50-39.00 target area.

Astute Ellioticians might notice how well this scenario fits into a basic 5 wave sequence with wave 1 (up) starting from the Dec 31st lows (i.e.-bottom of the head), wave 2 down being the move from the NL down to the bottom of the right shoulder, wave 3 up in progress now and to be continued until the 31.30sih pullback target (and yes, wave 3 would measure as the most powerful wave, should the pullback (wave 4) be relative minor as expected), and finally followed by a 5th wave up to hit the final target area of 38.50-39.00.

Sounds almost too perfect and as I always say, predicting future price moves is a lot like forecasting the weather; the cone of accuracy widens along with the time period of the forecast.  e.g.- Mr. Weatherman can tell you with a fair degree of accuracy the chance of rain tomorrow and throughout the week as well as the expected temperatures but not so much what conditions will be like 3-6 months from now. As with weather forecasting, a market technician must continually revises and adjust his/her expectation of where prices are headed as the data (chart/price action) changes over time.

One final note to add: Assuming gold continues to move higher and this IHS pattern on GDX goes on to breakout soon, one variation to this scenario would be to allow for the possibility of a backtest of the neckline shortly following the breakout, a fairly common occurrence.

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