• ACI - Aug 13 201420140813
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • ANR - Aug 07 201420140807
  • AU - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUQ - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • CDE - Jun 27 201420140627
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • CORN - Sep 11 201420140911
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GDX - Sep 08 201420140908
  • GDXJ - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GFI - Aug 28 201420140828
  • GG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GLD - Sep 10 201420140910
  • $GOLD - Sep 10 201420140910
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • IAG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • REMX - Aug 08 201420140808
  • $SILVER - Aug 05 201420140805
  • $SIVLER - Sep 02 201420140902
  • SLV - Sep 02 201420140902
  • SLW - Jul 30 201420140730
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • WEAT - Sep 03 201420140903
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403


Long-term Trades- Setups

Long-term Trades are trade or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or more. This category of trade ideas might be useful for the longer-term swing trader or investor looking for investment ideas to supplement their existing portfolio and prefers a less active, more hands-off approach to investing.

Sep 112014
 

As a follow-up to the previous post with the $CORN (Spot Corn Prices) weekly chart, below is the 5-minute chart of US Corn Futures as well as the weekly chart of CORN (Corn ETF), highlighting the current volume surge which is indicative of a selling climax.

click here to view the live, streaming chart of US Corn Futures. Once the page to Investing.com opens, from the top of the chart select: Instruments/More Instruments & then “U.S. Corn Futures” under the Commodities section.

Sep 112014
 

$CORN weekly Sept 11th

In the most recent update on the CORN (Corn ETF) Long-term Trade idea posted last week, it was stated that CORN had broken the 25.60 support level (below the recent consolidation range) which would likely open the door for a move down to the 340 major support level on $CORN (spot corn prices). Since the original post on the CORN trade idea back on July 28th, I had highlighted two likely scenarios for $CORN: either a bounce from around where $CORN was trading at the time OR a continued move down to the 340 level in which not only bring corn prices down to a key long-term support level and that we would also likely have strong bullish divergences in place on the weekly PPO when/if prices got there.

Although the chart of $CORN (spot prices) is an end-0f-day (EOD) chart, not updated until after the market close each day, I’ve been watching US Corn futures today and so far they kissed a low of 335.87 just a few minutes before I started working on this post and have since reversed sharply so far. Of course the day is still young but regardless of any short-term gyrations, we now have corn prices at key long-term support while extremely oversold (the weekly RSI 14  on $CORN was at an extreme level of 23.73 at yesterday’s close). We have the strong bullish divergences forming on the PPO as well as volume patterns on CORN (corn etf) that are indicative of a selling climax (ditto for WEAT, which I will cover under a separate update).

After stopping out the recent Active Long (swing trade) on CORN last week, I am going to add CORN back on as a new Long Trade idea. I also believe this is an objective area for a new entry or add-on to an existing position for the CORN Long-term Trade idea (investment) that was initiated in the July 28th post.

click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of CORN

Sep 102014
 

GLD 60 minute Sept 10th

GLD is now within 65 cents of the aforementioned 119.50ish support level while rapidly approaching the apex of this 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place on the RSI & MACD. An upside break above the pattern would likely propel GLD to at least the 122 area, possibly higher.

Sep 082014
 

Starting with the longer-term picture for gold & the gold mining stocks, I will be waiting to see how $GOLD (spot gold prices) close out the week as $GOLD closed right on the nearly 13 year long-term uptrend on Friday, a key major support level. As with all weekly charts, it is the end-of-week (Friday) close that matters as intra-week spikes below support are not unusual.  As mentioned in the past, should $GOLD make a solid weekly break below this long-term uptrend line, that would open the door for another test of the mid & late 2013 double-bottom lows, the next major support level for gold. A link to the live, annotated weekly chart of $GOLD is available on the Live Charts page and can also be viewed by clicking here.

$GOLD weekly Sept 8th

Moving down to the 4-hour period of GLD that I’ve been covering lately, following last Tuesday’s gap below the symmetrical triangle pattern (bearish), followed up by Thursday’s failure upon backtesting the triangle pattern from below (additional bearish confirmation), prices are likely headed towards the aforementioned 119.50ish support area before any significant reversal. Therefore, my best guess for gold prices in the near-term, Continue reading »

Sep 032014
 

Today both CORN & WEAT are trading below their recent consolidation ranges, which was mentioned a both a possibility as well as a potential criterion for those preferring a tight stop on these trades. In the previous (original) post on CORN, it was stated that an entry at that time would be somewhat aggressive as CORN has significant resistance not far overhead at the top of the July 21st gap, which is where the recent pop in CORN reversed when prices failed at that level.

As with the related WEAT ETF trade, today’s break below the recent trading ranges in both ETFs can be used as a tight stop for more active traders or those preferring to keep a tight rein on losses. However, as also stated in the previous post, CORN was also added as a Long-term Trade Idea with a suggested stop some below the 340 area on $CORN (spot corn) prices. As with the previous weekly chart & this updated weekly chart, the two most likely scenarios are drawn with the green arrows that show prices either breaking above the recent consolidation zone (much less likely now) or continuing lower to the S1 support area around 340, which is now the more likely to the two. Note how the MACD line is starting to curl up but has yet to make a bullish crossover, thereby yet to confirm the potential positive divergence that is forming although it does look likely by if/when price fall to the 340 level. Note: The chart of $CORN is an End of Day (EOD) chart of spot corn prices, meaning that the chart is only updated after the close of trading each day. Hence, I will use the daily chart of CORN (ETF) as well as corn futures in determining my entry & exit points.

As CORN is now trading well below the 25.60 tight stop level, it will be considered stopped out from the Active Long Trades category (typical swing trades) but will remain as both an Active Long-term Trade & Long-term Setup until/unless we get a solid weekly close on $CORN below the 340 support level.  As the daily chart of WEAT is very similar to CORN, I will also consider the Active Long Trade on WEAT stopped out on the break of support while leaving WEAT on as an Active Long-term Trade idea for now with stops TBD soon.

Click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of $CORN (EOD spot corn prices) or click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of CORN (ETF).

Sep 022014
 

Both GLD (Gold ETF) and SLV (Silver ETF) experienced relatively large gaps below support today which can only be viewed as near-term bearish technical events. GLD has made a solid gap below the large symmetrical triangle pattern that was recently pointed out on the 4-hour time frame which is unarguably bearish price action. One potential bullish development is the fact that significant rallies on GLD have started from similar oversold levels (see the yellow annotations on RSI below). Next key support lies around 119.50.

Along with the symmetrical triangle pattern on GLD, I had also pointed out this bullish falling wedge pattern on the 60 minute chart of SLV, which prices broke above last week. Today’s gap down in SLV sent prices back well within the wedge pattern which makes last week’s breakout a “fakeout” or failed breakout. Failed breakouts are also clearly bearish technical events that are often followed up with additional selling. However, it is certainly worth noting that SLV still has bullish divergences in place on both the MACD & RSI (on the same 60 minute time frame previously shown). Therefore, it could be argued that we have some “glass half-empty or half-full?”, bearish vs. bullish cross-currents in the near-term technicals for both gold & silver.

For now the longer-term outlook on both remains bullish but both gold & silver are not far from very critical long-term support levels which, if broken, would certainly dampen the case that a new bull market in gold & silver is underway. My plan regarding the exposure that I recently added back to the mining sector is to sit tight on my positions for now and watch to see if GLD & SLV follow through to the downside following today’s bearish price action or not. Keep in mind these are only intraday charts although the 4-hour symmetrical triangle on GLD is also on the daily time frame.

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

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