• AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AU - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUQ - Jul 30 201420140730
  • CDE - Dec 09 201420141209
  • CORN - Nov 17 201420141117
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GDX - Sep 08 201420140908
  • GFI - Aug 28 201420140828
  • GG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • GLD - Dec 16 201420141216
  • $GOLD - Dec 16 201420141216
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • IAG - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • $SILVER - Dec 16 201420141216
  • $SIVLER - Sep 02 201420140902
  • SLV - Dec 16 201420141216
  • SLW - Jul 30 201420140730
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • WEAT - Sep 03 201420140903

Long-term Trades- Setups

Long-term Trades are trade or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or more. This category of trade ideas might be useful for the longer-term swing trader or investor looking for investment ideas to supplement their existing portfolio and prefers a less active, more hands-off approach to investing.

Dec 162014

I received the following question (late last night) regarding yesterday’s price action in precious metals & the CDE (Coeur Mining) trade idea, posted below:

Q: Wow, what a turnaround today. Was looking so strong in the early afternoon and they got dumped like all gold mining stocks. Curious as to your thoughts on it now.

A: My take is that the selling in the broad markets is starting to trigger forced selling/margin calls on both retail and the fully leveraged institutional traders which forces them to liquidate gold & silver (along with their long-side/bottom calling bets on crude). Hard to say how much more of that is left but my take remains that commodities and metals has a lot less downside at this point than do equities. I may be proved wrong but even if I’m right on the stocks down/commodities and metals up in 2015 call, just about everything gets sold during panic sell-offs. Therefore, it could get worse before it gets better in the metals & commodities although putting all that aside, CDE still looks fine from a longer-term technical perspective.

FWIW- I learned (the hard & costly way) years ago to keep my trading light during the month of December as trading volumes dry up which in turn opens the door to a few big “stop-clearing” counter-trend days in just about every asset class out there.

As long as gold remains above the 1180 (spot gold)/114.50ish (GLD-gold etf) levels I remain cautiously bullish on gold. Both yesterday & today (so far) have seen gold backtest that key support level following the recent fake-down (false breakdown) and break back above that level, which was defined by the mid & late 2013 lows as well as the early Oct 2014 reaction low (i.e.-triple-bottom). As previously stated, I view the fact that gold was able to reclaim the 1180 level as quite bullish (a bear-trap) although there is still quite a bit of work to be done in order to help solidify the longer-term bullish case for gold and with prices still precariously flirting with the 1180 level, it can (and most likely will) break either way sooner than later.

As per yesterday’s update on gold, I believe that the 1250 area is an important overhead resistance level, defined by both the downtrend line as well as horizontal resistance. Any solid & sustained break above that level would considerably strengthen the longer-term bullish case for gold while a break below the recent lows around 1130 would likely usher in a new wave of selling. Although my read on the charts is for an upside resolution of this recent trading range, trading is likely to continue to be difficult with large prices swings as gold chops around in what I refer to as “no-man’s land”, which is a battle ground between the bulls and the bears.

Silver has moved sharply lower over the last two days, moving back below both the 16.05 horizontal support/resistance level which it had just recently broken above, as well as the downtrend line (see previous daily chart or click the link to the live chart of $SILVER on the “Live Chart Links” sidebar). However, for now, both silver and gold are clearly in short-term uptrends which began with the Nov 5th lows (and uptrend simply being a series of higher highs & higher lows).

Again, I remain “cautiously” bullish on silver & gold at this time primary for a few reasons: 1) Both are still trading not far above multi-year lows within a larger downtrend. Despite the short-term uptrend, it is much too early to say with a high degree of confidence that the recent rise off the Nov 5th lows is anything more than a counter-trend bounce. 2) Both gold & silver have yet to take out their primary downtrend lines which are generated off their respective 2011 highs, i.e.- both silver & gold are trading below significant resistance. 3) Although my scenarios on the US Dollar, Euro, & Yen appear to be playing out as all three appear to have recently reversed trend, as with gold & silver, it is still too early to say with a fair degree of confidence that these are anything more than brief, counter-trend moves in these currencies.

Dec 122014
$GOLD daily Dec 12th

$GOLD daily Dec 12th

I’ve mapped out my preferred scenario in this updated daily chart of $GOLD (spot gold prices). My current expectation is for a reversal around 1250 followed by either a relatively shallow pullback (first set of arrows) or a deeper pullback to around the 1180 level before prices move higher to breakout above the downtrend line and move considerably higher. The latter scenario has the potential to form a very symmetrical Inverse Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern which would project to around the 1340 level.

Of course I’m open to all possibilities, including both a more immediate breakout above the downtrend line (which aligns with my call for a near-term pullback in the $USD) as well as one more new low in gold before a more lasting bottom is in place. As such, this chart will be updated as any significant technical events develop.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of $GOLD

Dec 092014
CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE daily Dec 9th

CDE (Coeur Mining, Inc) is a silver mining stock which may be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head & shoulders reversal pattern. Aggressive traders anticipating a breakout in silver along with an accompanying rise in the mining sector could take a partial or even full position here at what could prove to be the bottom of the right shoulder, placing a stop slightly below the recent lows, say around 3.85, while adding to a full position if & when prices break above the neckline (assuming that prices do move higher from here & the symmetry of the pattern remains intact).

More conventional traders might opt to wait to see the right shoulder completely formed with a move back up to the neckline, only initiating a long position if & when prices breakout above the neckline. The approximate measured move for this pattern would bring prices to around the 7.50 level (about a 70% gain from current prices) but the exact price target(s) will follow, assuming the pattern continues to play out.

CDE will be added as an aggressive Active Long Trade here and also as a Long Trade Setup & Long-term Trade Idea with an entry to be triggered upon a break above the neckline (again, should one or two fairly symmetrical right shoulders form).

Nov 212014

PPLT (Physical Platinum Shares ETF) offers an objective long entry on this breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern. T1 is the sole target at this time with additional targets likely to be added soon, depending on how the charts play out going forward. Suggested stop below 117.64 or higher if targeting only T1 although longer-term traders & investors might consider a scale-in strategy with higher price targets & wider stops.

With the $USD still in an uptrend and GLD currently still attempting to solidly take out the 115 level, more conservative traders & investors might opt to wait for those aforementioned events (dollar reversal & a confirmed GLD breakout) to occur before establishing a position. We’ve also yet to see a confirmed, end-of-day breakout in $PLAT (spot platinum prices) although keep in mind that the spot charts below are EOD (end-of-day) and reflect yesterday’s closing prices. Platinum futures are currently trading up nearly 2% so a close above the downtrend line on the daily spot chart below today is likely, barring a reversal into the close.

Daily chart of PPLT along with the daily & weekly charts of $PLAT (end-of-day spot platinum prices) below. Besides PPLT & futures, there are several other options for trading platinum although these are all thinly-traded ETFs: PGM, PTM, PLTM, LPLT, & SPPP. Click here for information on PPLT.

Nov 212014

SGG (Sugar ETF) will be added as an Active Long (swing) Trade & Long-term (investment) Trade here around the 41.45 level with a suggested stop slightly below the recent low of 39.55. Targets TBD. Daily chart of SGG and weekly chart of $SUGAR (spot sugar prices) below:

Nov 172014
CORN daily Nov 17th

CORN daily Nov 17th

As I’ve spend some time away from my desk over the last few weeks, there are quite a few trade ideas in need of updating. As most of these trade updates are not time sensitive, email notifications will not be sent out on the remainder of the updates.

CORN (Corn ETF) hit the second price target last week. Although the odds of a pullback and/or consolidation around this level are elevated, T3 remains the final target at this time. As prices are still trading in close proximity to the Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. If holding out for T3, an objective stop would be below the 25 area (assuming an entry on the wedge breakout). Updated daily chart shown.

Sep 112014

As a follow-up to the previous post with the $CORN (Spot Corn Prices) weekly chart, below is the 5-minute chart of US Corn Futures as well as the weekly chart of CORN (Corn ETF), highlighting the current volume surge which is indicative of a selling climax.

click here to view the live, streaming chart of US Corn Futures. Once the page to Investing.com opens, from the top of the chart select: Instruments/More Instruments & then “U.S. Corn Futures” under the Commodities section.